The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[hammerofglass]

I think US intervention would escalate the war in the region and you'd have a lot of countries in the middle east willing to help Russia in case US wanted to expand upon the area. From there NATO would probably go full steam, but this isn't really something any leaders want.

Restructuring US global military operations would disassemble current US hegemonic conditions in favor of possibly reigniting the Cold War under new terms.

Part of the issue is that if we're just ignoring places we pledged to defend the sovereignty of, what use is any US promise that we've made to much of the world?

Pretty sure that ship sailed when we backstabbed the Kurds in the middle of a campaign a few years ago. American promises are worth mud these days.

[phantom000]

I wonder what China thinks of all this since they've been modelling their military on Russias for the past decade and a half.

If they're smart they will keep a close eye on the fighting and take careful notes. During the Spanish Civil War the Germans were using Franco to field test some of the weapons and tactics they would later use in their blitzkrieg offensives.

So this could be a chance for China to learn from Russia's mistakes, of course the same can easily apply to NATO.

[CharlesPhipps]

Pretty sure that ship sailed when we backstabbed the Kurds in the middle of a campaign a few years ago. American promises are worth mud these days.

It led to a rather insane moment where the Special Forces apparently refused to obey orders and the Pentagon had to invent a shit ton of excuses to delay the withdrawal until Trump changed his mind. It was the one time Call of Duty was more realistic than reality.

[McAvoy]

I wonder what China thinks of all this since they've been modelling their military on Russias for the past decade and a half.

If they're smart they will keep a close eye on the fighting and take careful notes. During the Spanish Civil War the Germans were using Franco to field test some of the weapons and tactics they would later use in their blitzkrieg offensives.

So this could be a chance for China to learn from Russia's mistakes, of course the same can easily apply to NATO.

I have suspected the US supplying Ukraine with weapons is for the same reason. The US wants to see how their weapons fare against Russian equipment.

Doesn't help that Russian competency is at their usual historically low levels.

[Madner Kami]

It appears that there's fighting going on at the Donetsk airport. This place was occupied by Russia in 2015.

Unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian forces having reached the outskirts of Lysychansk, the eastern part of the twin-city of Sieverodonetsk-Lysychansk, which saw some quite tremendous fighting just two months ago, when Ukraine desperately tried to hold onto the last major city in Luhansk Oblast. Other reports are talking about the Ukrainians having reached a town called Svatove about 80km further to the north, equally as far from Izium as Lysychansk is. I know I shouldn't proclaim or expect or even hope for it, but if any of that is true, north-eastern Ukraine might be under Ukrainian control for the first time since 2014, while the Russians dig a hole for a last stand in Luhansk. A few weeks further down the line and Mariupol might become a battlefield again...

Oh and one more thing: Ria.ru, the prime russian news-network reports, that...

MOSCOW, September 10 - RIA Novosti. Russian troops from Balakleya and Izyum regrouped in the Donetsk direction to achieve the stated goals of a special military operation to liberate Donbass, the Defense Ministry said.

"For this purpose, an operation was carried out within three days to curtail and organize the transfer of the Izyum-Balakley group of troops to the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic," the department said.

[...]

Source: The Ministry of Defense announced the regrouping of troops in the areas of Balakliya and Izyum (Google-translated Ria.ru

Yes, they planned to evacuate the Luhansk region, in order to advance in the Donetsk Oblast. Except they are getting beaten back there as well, if reports about the fighting on the Donetsk Airport is true. The successful victories of the russian forces come ever closer to Moscow and Army Group S̶t̶e̶i̶n̶e̶r̶ Wagner will deliver them at any moment.

[Frustration]

Did Russia flood the areas it had taken over years ago with its own citizens? Or were those areas majority-populated with people who were genuinely in favor of Russia annexing them?

I like the thought of Russia losing even the parts of Ukraine it had previously seized, but I recognize there are all kinds of potential problems for Ukraine in doing that, even ignoring the immediate military issues.

[Madner Kami]

I think it's safe to say, that both Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast had quite a Russia-friendly population in general, when this all began and I am willing to argue, that this friendlyness carried over to the period between 2014 and 2022. But, the same is true for neighbouring regions, like Charkiv and other border-areas, where intermingling with Russia and russians was extensive.
But, things have changed. The moment Russia barged into Ukraine proper, regions like Charkiv showed themselves resilient to the russian allure, despite the strong ties and many voices calling for a deepening of the ties to Russia before the war. I feel, very much the same is true in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast, for some very simple reasons. These people were used and abused by Russia. Forced conscription was a wide-spread occurance and those people were sent to the front with no training and even worse equipment. This is no joke, there are reports of entire units carrying World War 2 weaponry. Famously, Mosin-Nagants were given out, the soviet equivalent of the german-produced Gewehr 98/Karabiner 98, a weapon-system first designed in, as the name implies, not 1998, but 1898! Now this doesn't make the weapon any less deadly, but you can guess how well a bolt-action rifle produced in the first third of the 1900s fares on a modern battlefield.
As of the time of this writing, reports and videos are coming in from a lot of people leaving Luhansk for Russia proper. It stands to reason, that what's left of the population is not welcoming of Russian friendship. They've experienced what being a subject to Moscow means and pictures taken from liberated areas show how the orcs treated their subjects and their property. They'll not look back kindly on their experiences, if the discovery of new mass graves and the practically overnight re-appearing ukrainian police force, made up of local men, is anything to judge by.

Sure, Ukrainian sovereignty will not be welcome everywhere and re-integrating these areas will be a difficult project once this war is over, but by and large? I do not expect the people of Donetsk and Luhansk being unwelcoming to the liberation, peace and freedom that Ukrainian's forces are bringing. Right now, Ukrainian soldiers are being welcomed with offerings of food, cheers, hugs and tears.

[tyrteg]

Honestly - the best sumarry of how the war in Ukraine is going is to look at the economics. And nobody on Youtube does that better than Perun:

youtu.be/ce5TR-qWCk4

[phantom000]

Did Russia flood the areas it had taken over years ago with its own citizens? Or were those areas majority-populated with people who were genuinely in favor of Russia annexing them?

I like the thought of Russia losing even the parts of Ukraine it had previously seized, but I recognize there are all kinds of potential problems for Ukraine in doing that, even ignoring the immediate military issues.

I remember seeing a poll asking if Ukraine should give up some territory to end the fighting. Personally, I would not trust Putin to kept to any such agreement longer than it was convenient for him so I would not want any agreement unless Russia completely withdrew from Ukraine first. Then again, as an outsider and someone who has read a lot of military history, a likely outcome of this particular war will be Ukraine giving up some territory.

NOTE: I said likely, not inevitable. If the Russian forces collapse completely, something they seem close to doing already, then Ukraine might get all the territory they lost back in 2014. Of course, if the Ukrainians overreach themselves and their offensive is not only stopped but completely destroyed, how long before the Russians could be rolling towards Kyiv with minimal resistance?

[Thebestoftherest]

If they can come out of here still a country they need to join NATO ASAP.