Brexit Rambles

[Robovski]

I'm not sure why the reciprocal nature of the issues isn't also a lever for the UK. These things that are problems for the UK are also problems for the EU and its member states.

[TGLS]

Size matters. For the same reason why big nations can bully little nations, the EU can bully Britain (which, after all, is why the EU and other transnationals exist).

[Wild_Kraken]

... it leaves Britain in a significantly weaker position relative to the EU than it is now.

That's unavoidable, because Great Britain is weaker than the EU. This is why countries form supranational organizations in the first place, to pool their power. If you use America as an example, even California, the biggest state in terms of population and economy, would still be at a deep disadvantage when negotiating with the other 49 + the federal government.

When the EU was coalescing for the first time and it was fragile and no one was sure if it could even work, Britain was able to take advantage of that weakness with its relative power to get a sweet deal with all sorts of opt outs that other nations had to deal with. But now the EU is more or less fully formed, it's confident, it's seen some shit and come out the other end. What power Britain had to dictate terms is gone.

Ultimately the problem stems from Brexit being based on falsehoods. Nothing will satisfy the Leave camp because there's nothing to satisfy. As a modern post-industrial nation, if Great Britain wishes to have a standard of living comparable to what it has now, there's no choice but to engage with the EU. And since the EU is so much stronger than ANY of its members (or former members), GB will have to follow Europe's lead.

[Robovski]

Sure, the EU is bigger as a whole. That doesn't mean the UK doesn't have things the EU wants and can't negotiate - Switzerland is tiny but managed to negotiate effective deals for itself while maintaining her sovereignty and the UK is less dependent upon her neighbors. The EU has fundamental flaws in her make-up that could be used for negotiating side deals with France, Germany ect... were there leadership and some backbone. Everything looks like a limp ''I don't wanna'' and so nothing is progressing quickly or well.

[Madner Kami]

May no longer has the option to refuse to leave.

Oh. No backsies, eh?

Well, admittedly, that throws another wrinkle into things. But I still can't see how this monstrosity of a plan is going to pass Parliament. I would think you'd have to hold guns to MPs heads in order to convince them to vote yes.

I suppose the UK could stay if they revoke their Leave, as there's just no precedence. But the EU would be stupid to just allow the UK to withdraw it's Leave without any sort of really-sour-to-swallow pills for the UK by this point in time. Particularly ironic would be, how the BrExiters complained about the EU being a beaurocratic nightmare that just burns money, given how this massive fuckup of their own making, burned billions and still throws more money on the pyre as we speak, which would only get worse of the UK withdraws it's Vote of Leave, as literally everything would have been for nought.

[Antiboyscout]

This all presumes that the European Union does not collapse in on itself. The super-government is remarkably fragile. It would only take one or two things to break it in half.

The endless expansionism of the EU has lead it to include many countries it should not have (Greece, the Balkans) If it adds one more bad one, say Turkey, It might bring the system down. Speaking of Greece, There is the other way the system could collapse.

It is not a question that Germany manipulates the EU to benefit itself. The more countries that realize or are the victims of such, the more those countries will oppose Germany out of spite. That will force Germany to punish those countries leading to a cycle of vengeance that could break the Union.

Finally, Obvious divide between east and west, north and south. I touched on north and south already but the most obvious strain is there. Greece, Spain, Italy all do thing a different way and it conflicts with the German view. This cannot last. However East v. West is a lot more dire. Just look at Poland. Poland gets the short end of the stick in most every EU deal. EU regulations destroyed its outdated industrial base and does not provide it enough capital to built high tech modern production so is forced to rely on producing raw materials to Germany. Just as Germany wants. Even that is not as bad as the conflict in security concerns. Even as Germany complains about Russian expansionism, they buy Russian gas and have let their military languish. When it comes down to it, Russia is not a threat to German security. They are a threat to Polish security. Poland is one of 3 EU/NATO members that actually meet or exceed the 2% military expenditure. Greece and Estonia being the other two. If Russia ever does push into The Baltic or up to the Polish border, the inability of Germany to respond, or an unwillingness, will break the Union.

This isn't even mentioning the migrant crisis that started when Germany promised to take in "refugees" and when the burden became to great, they used to EU to force other members to take there "fair share". An obvious abuse.

If a hard Brexit happens, the worst the EU can do is a 2% tariff

The EU will collapse sooner or later.
It is better to be adrift at sea than stuck on a sinking ship.

[Madner Kami]

You are british, I assume?

[Antiboyscout]

You are british, I assume?

No, I study geopolitics as a hobby.

[Riedquat]

Ultimately the problem stems from Brexit being based on falsehoods. Nothing will satisfy the Leave camp because there's nothing to satisfy. As a modern post-industrial nation, if Great Britain wishes to have a standard of living comparable to what it has now, there's no choice but to engage with the EU. And since the EU is so much stronger than ANY of its members (or former members), GB will have to follow Europe's lead.

On the former, whilst the Remain camp might claim that there's nothing to satisfy with Leave they've failed to make a case for Remaining offering anything Leave is sufficiently interested in having - a default of "don't want to join in without very strong reasons to" is a perfectly valid position. On the latter, the existence of non-EU countries smaller than the UK with as good or better living standards rightly raises questions about that. It's telling that there's generally no pressing desire for even small countries to coalesce to even the level of the EU. There's an awful lot on both sides of failing to grasp just what people actually value, and people dismissing values that don't coincide with their own as meaningless, which quickly degenerates into insult-slinging.

Sure, I'm a Leaver, but I'd rather the EU reformed and we stayed. It's got too much authority and there aren't enough barriers to it taking more, and I strongly dislike the Commission being made up of appointed members who swear to represent the EU instead of their countries of origin, which is a serious lack of members' representation at its heart.

[Riedquat]

Size matters. For the same reason why big nations can bully little nations, the EU can bully Britain (which, after all, is why the EU and other transnationals exist).

The more people start to view it as a bully the more likely it is to gain more dislike internally. Although it tries to act too much like one it's not a monolithic single entity that's entirely united internally. There a lots of people who don't want to belong to a bullying organisation; resorting to that may get you through crises but the only way it'll survive long-term is if countries actively want to be a member of it, rather than only staying because they fear leaving.