The European Elections - Brexit is as strong as ever

[clearspira]

A more in-depth look at the results of the british section of the european vote, by TLDR News UK


youtu.be/X6jngztBrFc

TLDR of TLDR:

• Conservative voters left conservatives because they want a BrExit NOW
• Labour voters went for LibDems because they want no BrExit or at least a second referendum
• Overall increased polarization
• Corbyn and his maneuvering hurts everyone
• Slightly more votes for parties against BrExit (54% vs 46%)

I debate the 54/46 figure as being the probable result of a second referendum as some claim. Clearly Brexit Party/UKIP and Lib Dems/SNP/ChUK are a leave/remain vote. HOWEVER, even though the Greens are a remain party, I very much argue given the fact the Green vote is up all across Europe that a large amount of people who voted Green DID NOT do so with Brexit in mind. They did it with the environment in mind. This makes their second referendum vote share not as clear cut as made out.

I have also seen people routinely lump the Labour party in with remain, however stood on a Brexit manifesto in 2017, they just believe in a so-called soft Brexit followed by a confirmatory referendum which is not quite the same thing. It is also true that one of the reasons why Corbyn is so reluctant to grant a second ref like his party want is because he has seen what has happened to his vote in the North of England which is a prominently leave area.

Realistically based on this we are still looking at a 50/50 split in my opinion. A second ref depends on which way the wind is blowing that day.

[Jonathan101]

Corbyn has been reluctant to push for a second referendum because he has opposed the EU and campaigned to Leave for years. His only problem is that his reasons were more Leftist and to do with seeing the EU as corporatist while Brexit was much more nationalistic and about "taking our country back" etc

From his perspective the Leavers did the right thing for the wrong reasons.

https://www.markpack.org.uk/153744/jere ... yn-brexit/

[Madner Kami]

I debate the 54/46 figure as being the probable result of a second referendum as some claim. Clearly Brexit Party/UKIP and Lib Dems/SNP/ChUK are a leave/remain vote. HOWEVER, even though the Greens are a remain party, I very much argue given the fact the Green vote is up all across Europe that a large amount of people who voted Green DID NOT do so with Brexit in mind. They did it with the environment in mind. This makes their second referendum vote share not as clear cut as made out.

I have also seen people routinely lump the Labour party in with remain, however stood on a Brexit manifesto in 2017, they just believe in a so-called soft Brexit followed by a confirmatory referendum which is not quite the same thing. It is also true that one of the reasons why Corbyn is so reluctant to grant a second ref like his party want is because he has seen what has happened to his vote in the North of England which is a prominently leave area.

Realistically based on this we are still looking at a 50/50 split in my opinion. A second ref depends on which way the wind is blowing that day.

Aha, I was thinking about mentioning Labour beeing subsummed in the 54-46-split, but decided to leave it in as a test for whether someone actually watched the video before replying. Well done, though you weren't really the target. Realistically, I'd expect Labour-voters being slightly more on the "No BrExit"-side, given how the video points out how the voter-preference is more or less the exact opposite of Conservative-voters. I'd hazard a guess and say it's roughly a 3/5th to 2/5th split in favour of No BrExit.

As for the Greens, I completely agree. I perceive them as a complete unknown in this regard and I think I hinted at that in a different post earlier, either in this thread or the BrExit Rambles-thread (not that I expect that still to be in anyone's mind). And yes, I do not think a second referendum would end in a 54-46 result at the moment as well, my apologies if it came across like that. I only wanted to point out a figure based on the rather vague voting-preference. The 50/50 you mentioned seems the most realistic.

As for Corbyn, I think he's one of the biggest problems in this process. He plays too many powergames there and just does not know, when not to apply a crowbar. The guy feels really blunt and reminds me a lot about the leading figures of our german social democractic party, back when Schröder was our Chancellor. Career-wankers first, social democrats only as a far distant number 2.