The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Riedquat]

Since Trump is in. Let's do the countdown for him to end this war. He said 24 hours.

Let's see what he gives up.

They already rejected his peace deal. It was Russia who did as well.

Ukraine is oddly being very conciliatory, probably because they understand he can be bought.

Well so much for one of his promises. I am sure excuses will be made by his supporters. I think at the least he isn't going to send money and military assets there.

Probably because in his ego he couldn't envisage a world where Putin wouldn't go along with that. What both of them fail to understand is that in some ways they're all too similar. Putin's so far up his own backside that he'll never accept anything other than the utterly unrealistic everything, and Trump's too rammed up his that he can't tolerate the bruising to his ego of people not going along with whatever he suggests. When it comes to Ukraine what he suggests would've been giving away far too much than Ukraine could tolerate, but still not enough for Putin.

I think that's going to backfire spectacularly on Putin, due to his infantile inability to cope with even the slightest dissapointment. It may screw up Trump too, but the shorter term result of it all is possibly more support for Ukraine. So perhaps the right result for the wrong reasons (and with the wrong person).

[McAvoy]

Even then, without US support it will be more difficult for Ukraine to defend against the Russian military. It will be a long war but I can see Putin eventually getting what he wants.

All the while also making the US look like the bad guy due to Trump not only not supporting Ukraine or bringing in a peace like he said he would do. But also his plans like withdrawing from WHO and possibly NATO itself. All the while making claims on Canada, Panama and Whatever else floats his boat. Maybe even Mexico.

[CharlesPhipps]

Even then, without US support it will be more difficult for Ukraine to defend against the Russian military. It will be a long war but I can see Putin eventually getting what he wants.

I'm not so sure because Japan has just given 3,000,000,000 and other groups have been stepping up. The big issue I see is one that another poster friend of mine did on the TV tropes form:

https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/posts.php?d ... &page=1446

"NATO did this weird mix of overestimating and underestimating Russia at the same time. What NATO overestimated Russia on was the competence and strength of it's army. What they underestimated on was how much suffering Russia and Ukraine would inflict upon one another simply to not lose the war. NATO thought that Russia would crush Ukraine in a few days then be forced to deal with the Insurgency for the next 20 years until they either won or went home, or they'd fail the attack Putin would sue for peace, maybe get Crimea and the 2020 borders and the western world would go back to the status quo.

They didn't believe that Russia would burn most of it's economy and lifeblood as well as all it's political capital in the west simply out of pure stubbornness.

And on the same part, I still believe the West only intended to supply Ukraine until Ukraine reached a Winter War situation where they'd let Russia have a Token Victory to save face after giving up, they didn't think that Ukraine would also dig in against Russia and survive this long.

There was a reason after the retreat from Kyiv that the largest talk from western leaders was about "Giving Putin a deal that would let him save face". The assumption that the pullback was Russia trying to call it quits and that the only thing on Putin's mind was some kind of compromise of him taking a few hundred miles of land in return for getting to say "Russia is strong" for many European leaders that was an outcome they would be fine with because they could then say "With Russia's Imperial Ambitions defeated it would be wrong not to go back to buying gas from them."

They didn't expect Putin to instead double down because this wasn't about trying to look strong or about "Fears of NATO expansion" this was Putin's belief that Ukraine belongs to Russia.

I still go by a belief that the largest reason this war has lasted so long is the West ultimately couldn't decide if they wanted Ukraine to win or to let Russia win. Because they know both outcomes have negative impacts.

So they keep hoping for a Status Quo ending where both sides just get tired and give up."

[McAvoy]

I think that is the general idea everyone has gotten out of the war. I, myself included thought Russia actually elevated itself from its always historic military corruption and incompetency to be a big worry. Turns out, no they didn't. Just as bad as they have been for centuries. So much for that idea Russia was building itself back up to a superpower status.

That and despite it's size (size of the state of Texas) and population of about 30 million, Ukraine is doing a great job of defending itself. Even with aid.

Just seems at this point, it's just going to be a long drawn out war. Unless a Russian Luigi can do his part.