Brexit Rambles

[LittleRaven]

Tories overwhelmingly reject May's deal.

More than half of Tories want Theresa May’s Brexit deal to be scrapped in favour of a no-deal, a survey has found. When asked if they would want to leave with or without a deal only 29% of Tory members supported their own leader, with 64% preferring a no-deal. And 57% thought that a no-deal would actually be better for the UK than the deal Mrs May has managed to get onto the table. Only 29% of Tory members would vote for Mrs May’s deal, compared to 64% who would vote to leave without a deal. The number jumped to 76% in favour of a no-deal when they were asked if they would prefer to scrap Brexit altogether and remain in the EU.

It's 2019 now. We have 3 months until train hits cliff. Any signs that it's slowing down?

[Madner Kami]

All I can say is, that I really need to get going and buy my Honda Civic 10th gen hatchback really soon.

[PerrySimm]

Britain's impossible position comes to a head this week. There will be a vote Tuesday on the Brexit Deal. If it fails, then Labour will attempt to force a general election.

As the deal appears to be dead on arrival, whether or not Brexit happens at all will be up to the whims of Tory backbenchers and a few erstwhile coalition partners.

[LittleRaven]

Holy Majolie

Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal has been rejected by 230 votes - the largest defeat for a sitting government in history.

MPs voted by 432 votes to 202 to reject the deal, which sets out the terms of Britain's exit from the EU on 29 March.

Before the vote, I was hearing about how a loss of 20 votes would be a near miss, and a loss of 100 votes would be a disaster. 230?!? That's a massacre.

I assume May's deal is now well and truly dead. (and deservedly so, in my profoundly irrelevant opinion) So....what's next?

[Madner Kami]

Hard BrExit. There is no other way now, as the EU already made it abundantly clear, that the proposed deal is the best they are going to get (and it was quite generous and to the detriment of the EU imo).

All that remains now, is watching the shitshow a few more months and wait for calls for a second referendum to become louder. I still find it extremely funny how everyone knows that the deal is bad, yet nobody actually comes forward to take responsibility or actually make any substantial suggestions. It's the perfect continuation of the couple first moments after the first referendum. The ones that instigated it were like: "Um, ok, I did not expect this gun that I aimed at my head to actually be loaded. Now what? I won't deal with this!" and everybody else was like: "We're fucked, as we either do what the people want, fail and never get elected again or don't do what they want and will never get elected again."

And I am still 3,000€ short of my Civic. Fuck me.

[Admiral X]

The UK is in a far better position than the EU. They've already begun panicking in the EU about the loss in revenue a hard Brexit would mean. The deal the EU was offering was laughably bad in that it saddled the EU with essentially all the same responsibilities it had as a full member, but without any of the benefits of being a member. It's no wonder it was soundly rejected.

[LittleRaven]

So...we're almost halfway through March...are things any closer to being figured out?

[Madner Kami]

Nope. Theresa May plans on running the exact same proposal through parliament again tomorrow (March 12th), though she is in Brussels tonight, trying to get a different deal from Jean-Claude Junker, which will predictably fail, imo. I think this short video nicely shows the dilemma they maneuvered themselves into:


youtu.be/J1Yv24cM2os

Then, if she gets toasted by parliament again, she plans on having a vote on wednesday (March 13th) on whether the parliament wants a No-Deal-BrExit or if they want to request a postponing of BrExit.

I am completely uncertain how the vote on wednesday will go, given how uncertain the british parliament seems to be itself. If there is any sanity left in the british parliamentary elite, they'll vote for requesting a postponing. I have little doubt, that a significant part of them, however, just want to watch things burn down by now.

P.S.: I found this astute commentary under one of Grey's BrExit-videos and just wanted to share it, because it nicely condenses what's actually going on on the Island:

Schmidt54

The UK's "demands" are problematic because the country is far from being politically internally unified; the UK has a crisis of leadership that is being projected into foreign policy (classical move like it is the year 1900 or what). May cannot broker any kind of deal because either the UK parliament rejects her or the EU does or both do. It is the UK who deadlocked itself and instead of taking a step back, they blame anyone but their internal problems.

[Draco Dracul]

The UK is in a far better position than the EU. They've already begun panicking in the EU about the loss in revenue a hard Brexit would mean. The deal the EU was offering was laughably bad in that it saddled the EU with essentially all the same responsibilities it had as a full member, but without any of the benefits of being a member. It's no wonder it was soundly rejected.

A hard Brexit will be bad for the EU, it will be catastrophic for the UK, there is actually a legitimate worry that due to a lack of a formal trade agreement with the EU the UK could be facing food shortages.

[Admiral X]

I really doubt the UK would be facing food shortages. Though honestly at this point both sides need to put on their big boy shorts and learn to compromise with each other instead of being so hard-nosed.