The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[phantom000]

Experts say America has no plan for Putin using nuclear weapons.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-doesn-apo ... 48621.html

My response; 'no duh Einstein!' The thing about any kind of nuclear strategy is that it is mostly theory anyway. The last time a nuclear weapon was actually used was 1945, even above ground testing has almost passed from living memory as they were banned in 1963. From about 1970 onward, the US and Soviet nuclear strategies were built more on diplomacy than actual weapons, partially because of the Cuban Missile Crisis but also they realized that the threat of nuclear weapons could be more useful. After all, Putin's nuclear weapons are what's keeping NATO from driving the Russians out of Ukraine at gunpoint.

[phantom000]

The war is now effectively stalemated.

Which is a loss for Russia internationally and the ground level.

The thing about war is sometimes you don't have to win, you just have to not lose. That is how the Finns beat the Soviets in the Winter War and how the British lost the American Revolution; they were not destroyed but the war just dragged on until they were exhausted and stood to lose more than they could gain.

Ukraine could, and seems to be doing something similar, don't out fight the Russians just out last them. Like G'kar said to his people on Babylon 5 make it where its not worth their time anymore. What is disturbing, however, is it seems the Russians reached that point after a week and they still aren't backing down.

[TGLS]

The thing about war is sometimes you don't have to win, you just have to not lose. That is how the Finns beat the Soviets in the Winter War and how the British lost the American Revolution; they were not destroyed but the war just dragged on until they were exhausted and stood to lose more than they could gain.

Ukraine could, and seems to be doing something similar, don't out fight the Russians just out last them. Like G'kar said to his people on Babylon 5 make it where its not worth their time anymore. What is disturbing, however, is it seems the Russians reached that point after a week and they still aren't backing down.

I think it's forgotten that:
-> The Soviets grabbed up tons of land in the Winter War
-> The British had to face the French and deal with an emerging global war
-> Putin is still managing to take control of more territory, at least from a "lines and points" perspective, and remains insensitive to casualties.

[CmdrKing]

A strict look at where the lines of advance are seems to show Russia making some forward progress past the previous disputed areas, at a glance, but I don’t think that’s a meaningful way to assess if they’re ‘winning’. A big part of all of this was Russia flexing their military muscle as a sign to NATO and the world at large that they’re no longer a second rate nation and are ready to be a true pole of power again.
So… yeah, that was predicated in their own propaganda, that Ukraine was a friendly nation wrongly controlled by “Nazi” agents and they would be welcomed as liberators, to hold true. Storm in, break the government and ‘corrupt’ military forces, start a new age of Russian Empire.

That has… not panned out, and indeed it’s now clear that the only thing keeping them relevant is their existing nuclear stockpile from the soviet days. To be sure they’re a significant military threat to any single nation in Europe or Central Asia, but to NATO or China? They lose badly and now everyone knows it. There’s a non-negligible chance they basically have to sell most of their major industrial capacity to China just to stay afloat in 6 months, Neo-imperial style, which is many thing s but sure ain’t Russia winning this war.

[Riedquat]

The thing about war is sometimes you don't have to win, you just have to not lose. That is how the Finns beat the Soviets in the Winter War and how the British lost the American Revolution; they were not destroyed but the war just dragged on until they were exhausted and stood to lose more than they could gain.

Ukraine could, and seems to be doing something similar, don't out fight the Russians just out last them. Like G'kar said to his people on Babylon 5 make it where its not worth their time anymore. What is disturbing, however, is it seems the Russians reached that point after a week and they still aren't backing down.

I think it's forgotten that:
-> The Soviets grabbed up tons of land in the Winter War
-> The British had to face the French and deal with an emerging global war
-> Putin is still managing to take control of more territory, at least from a "lines and points" perspective, and remains insensitive to casualties.

You also have to wonder just how much he'll admit even to himself that things aren't going well. I get the distinct impression he's surrounded himself so much with his propaganda and paranoia, ensured that he's living in an echo chamber so never hears anything he doesn't want to hear that he actually believes all his drivel that he spouts. Oh, maybe not in the details, but quite possibly the general message of it. There's just no room in his head for the concept that he's not the strongest guy, standing at the top, who can crush anyone who he says should be crushed. The worry is if that sort of mentality eventually leads to "if I'm going down you're all going down with me."

[TGLS]

There's just no room in his head for the concept that he's not the strongest guy, standing at the top, who can crush anyone who he says should be crushed. The worry is if that sort of mentality eventually leads to "if I'm going down you're all going down with me."

I have a feeling this war is going to end with Putin or Zelensky dead.

[Riedquat]

There's just no room in his head for the concept that he's not the strongest guy, standing at the top, who can crush anyone who he says should be crushed. The worry is if that sort of mentality eventually leads to "if I'm going down you're all going down with me."

I have a feeling this war is going to end with Putin or Zelensky dead.

Since it started I've been living in constant gut-wrenching dread that it'll end up with nuclear missiles and everyone dead, and I've not heard anything to lessen that feeling. I'm struggling quite badly dealing with the stress, heaven knows how the Ukranians are managing.

[Madner Kami]

There's just no room in his head for the concept that he's not the strongest guy, standing at the top, who can crush anyone who he says should be crushed. The worry is if that sort of mentality eventually leads to "if I'm going down you're all going down with me."

I have a feeling this war is going to end with Putin or Zelensky dead.

Since it started I've been living in constant gut-wrenching dread that it'll end up with nuclear missiles and everyone dead, and I've not heard anything to lessen that feeling. I'm struggling quite badly dealing with the stress, heaven knows how the Ukranians are managing.

Just like we did back during the times of the Soviet Union. We just go on with our lives. And the Ukrainians have more immediate things to worry about, other than a sunrise at midnight.

[BridgeConsoleMasher]

I would imagine that that particularly would be at the top of anyone's short list.

[Riedquat]

There's just no room in his head for the concept that he's not the strongest guy, standing at the top, who can crush anyone who he says should be crushed. The worry is if that sort of mentality eventually leads to "if I'm going down you're all going down with me."

I have a feeling this war is going to end with Putin or Zelensky dead.

Since it started I've been living in constant gut-wrenching dread that it'll end up with nuclear missiles and everyone dead, and I've not heard anything to lessen that feeling. I'm struggling quite badly dealing with the stress, heaven knows how the Ukranians are managing.

Just like we did back during the times of the Soviet Union. We just go on with our lives. And the Ukrainians have more immediate things to worry about, other than a sunrise at midnight.

Throughout most of those times the risks of a Third World War were rather less than they are right now. There were some exceptions like the Cuban Missile Crisis, but it wasn't the norm. And I get the impression then that the USSR was run by people with their heads screwed on at least a little tighter than Putin, at any rate people more aware of the risks they were running.