The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[clearspira]

Meanwhile, Biden is pushing for another military aid bill to support Ukraine.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/06/biden-a ... raine.html

Right now it seems like a war of attrition; who out lasts who? That kind of fight comes down to a matter of resources, determination and outside support. Ukraine is being backed by most of the NATO members, although to varying degrees, so who is supporting Russia at this point?

Nobody. China is kinda helping here and there, but only in homeopathic dosages in form of military rations.

Back in March, as the international aid began coming into Ukraine and sanctions on Russia started taking affect, there was concern that China could be a means for Russia to bypass the sanctions but that does not seem to be the case, at least not on any significant scale.

There is no profit in helping Russia. There could have been, if Russia succeeded in taking an intact Ukraine within a week and the West didn't go all out on sanctions like it has.

But Ukraine is now nothing but rubble. That is what Russia is attempting to conquer: rubble.

[Madner Kami]

Back in March, as the international aid began coming into Ukraine and sanctions on Russia started taking affect, there was concern that China could be a means for Russia to bypass the sanctions but that does not seem to be the case, at least not on any significant scale.

"We have not seen the PRC provide direct military support to Russia’s war on Ukraine or engage in systematic efforts to help Russia evade our sanctions"

I think if this was Helmsdeep, China would be Treebeard "I'm not altogether on anyone's side, because no one is altogether on my side!"

China is entirely dependent on it's foreign trading partners and the vast majority of the big money is... *drumroll* western or western-aligned countries. It doesn't take much to extrapolate on why they choose not to invest wholesale into supporting Russia's war, at least openly and on any appreciable scale. This is also why Taiwan is a not-thing for as long as China can pretend that Taiwan is still a part of the chinese nation.

India is a different matter in this regard, as India would be perfectly willing to increase and expand it's trading with Russia, but the trade between India and Russia can only take one route: By sea and now take a guess who controls the trading fleets on the high seas, either directly or indirectly... If your guess is: The biggest trading block on the Earth and in the history of humankind (and foreseeable future), then your guess is correct. It's particularly funny how slyly this is happening as well. Eastern Russia lacks any port-infrastructure and pipeline-connections for oil and gas exports. Russias gas and oil exports primarily happens via pipeline and these pipelines end in China, Europe and... *drumroll* the Black Sea ports. Now, for a ship to be able to go anywhere, said ship must be insured. Recently, insurance companies decided that it's a really bad idea for ships to go through warzones and they refuse to insure ships which go through warzones. You know, warzones like the Black Sea.
So, if Russia wants to pay India with oil and gas, it has to do so with uninsured ships and now guess where you are not going to go with your uninsured ships. If your guess is: "Almost all ports in the world!", you are correct. But it gets better. Your ship must be insured, if you pass through the Suez Canal. So that route is blocked, meaning russian oil/gas to India has to go the long route around Africa, making it financially unappealing and while India can choose to waive the necessary insurance for their ports, the same is not true for almost all the major ports elsewhere. China insists on said insurance as well, so those ships used for transporting oil and gas to India, really can only go between India and Russia and since oil-/gas-tankers are rather specialized ships, it means they'll only go loaded one way, which further increases the costs, as they still have to take the long way around Africa's Cape Horn.
But it gets even more hilarious. Remember that the Black Sea isn't just blocked off from world trade through the Suez Canal and Gibraltar? Remember that little city which the local greeks called "Βασιλὶς τῶν πόλεων" (pronounced Vasilís tón póleon), the "Queen of Cities"? The city which's colloquial name devolved to "the city", vulgo "ston bol" or "stom bol"? Guess what you need to pass through the strait going through this city, which connects the Black Sea and the Mediterranean *badumtish*
Any gas- or oil-freighter picking up russian gas or oil in the Black Sea ports, is stuck there for however long this war goes (and as long as Turkey doesn't decide to waive the insurance need). And if your next idea is: "But Russia can just build new infrastructure and pipelines in the eastern ports!" Nope. They can't. Guess who did it for them for the last 30 years, resulting in Russia having literally no Know How or any of the necessary industry in this regard. Correct! The biggest trading block on this planet, especially and particular european companies. Though I suppose Russia could try to pay their trading with India or other such countries by exporting Yotaphones or Marussia Supercars/Sportscars.

[phantom000]

Meanwhile, Biden is pushing for another military aid bill to support Ukraine.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/06/biden-a ... raine.html

Right now it seems like a war of attrition; who out lasts who? That kind of fight comes down to a matter of resources, determination and outside support. Ukraine is being backed by most of the NATO members, although to varying degrees, so who is supporting Russia at this point?

Nobody. China is kinda helping here and there, but only in homeopathic dosages in form of military rations.

Back in March, as the international aid began coming into Ukraine and sanctions on Russia started taking affect, there was concern that China could be a means for Russia to bypass the sanctions but that does not seem to be the case, at least not on any significant scale.

There is no profit in helping Russia. There could have been, if Russia succeeded in taking an intact Ukraine within a week and the West didn't go all out on sanctions like it has.

But Ukraine is now nothing but rubble. That is what Russia is attempting to conquer: rubble.

Its hard to see how there is much profit to be made helping Ukraine or NATO against Putin. For China, the question is not how to make a profit so much as who do you want to be dealing with once the dust settles?

The last 70 years has been a kind of three sided balance between China, Russia and NATO with PRC and the Soviets drifting back and forth between formal allies and informal enemies. In the last 20 years that has been China's relationship with NATO; they don't really trust each other but they understand that neither is going to do much with serious provocation, hence why China didn't immediately go all in supporting Putin and Biden did not make the same threats against China.

For China this seems kinda like a 'no-win-scenario' while they don't stand to loose much, it's hard to see how they are going to gain anything either.

[Beastro]

There is no profit in helping Russia. There could have been, if Russia succeeded in taking an intact Ukraine within a week and the West didn't go all out on sanctions like it has.

Yes there is. They back Russia on the international scene here and Russia owes them for when China needs backing up (such as if they push for Taiwan). This is how great powers behave (and why America is so troublesome given it increasingly history of reneging on its agreements).

But Ukraine is now nothing but rubble. That is what Russia is attempting to conquer: rubble.

What's reduced to rubble can be rebuilt, but geography cannot be altered nor bought as easily. Russia wants its southwest flank buffered like it once was when they turned the Wild Fields into New Russia two and a half centuries ago and gained Sevastopol as their main naval base.

They want this again and more Russians than Westerners would like to think agree with their government that they should have it again:

[clearspira]

There is no profit in helping Russia. There could have been, if Russia succeeded in taking an intact Ukraine within a week and the West didn't go all out on sanctions like it has.

Yes there is. They back Russia on the international scene here and Russia owes them for when China needs backing up (such as if they push for Taiwan). This is how great powers behave (and why America is so troublesome given it increasingly history of reneging on its agreements).

But Ukraine is now nothing but rubble. That is what Russia is attempting to conquer: rubble.

What's reduced to rubble can be rebuilt, but geography cannot be altered nor bought as easily. Russia wants its southwest flank buffered like it once was when they turned the Wild Fields into New Russia two and a half centuries ago and gained Sevastopol as their main naval base.

They want this again and more Russians than Westerners would like to think agree with their government that they should have it again:

Taiwan is far more dangerous militarily than Ukraine, doesn't have a land border, is within shelling range of most Chinese cities, and unlike Ukraine, actually has defence treaties with the US.

Frankly, I wouldn't want Russia's help against Taiwan for any reason other than cannon fodder. They suck.

[Frustration]

Russia is run by idiots. They could have cultivated friendly relationships with the countries they used to dominate, and gained far more than trying to seize territory with military force. No one, no one is going to want to join them now under any circumstances.

[Beastro]

Taiwan is far more dangerous militarily than Ukraine, doesn't have a land border, is within shelling range of most Chinese cities, and unlike Ukraine, actually has defence treaties with the US.

Frankly, I wouldn't want Russia's help against Taiwan for any reason other than cannon fodder. They suck.

The ROC military is only effective as long as they keep PRC as a threat along a 90-120 degree axis facing the coast. Right now they are like wall running across a canyon with steep sides that cannot be by-passed. The issue is once the PLAN has enough carriers and time to properly inculcate and develop aircraft carrier doctrine into their navy they will be able to attack Taiwan from all directions and Taiwan simply does not have the money and resources to cover that many angles of attack.

They are still a decade or more away from that but their time is running out.

Russia doesn't need to actively fight in a war alongside China. The favour might be stirring up trouble threatening war in Europe badly enough to stretch the commitments of the US. Even if Russia compels the US to keep a few carriers and numerous other support ships in the North Atlantic or Mediterranean that otherwise might be sent to the Western Pacific that's more than enough help.

Virtual attrition is just as effective as real attrition in such a situation.

And if they go beyond that, all the more virtual attrition will be bled away towards Europe. This is what happened in WWI as France and Britain kept requiring counter offensives from Russia to keep the Germans from overrunning the Western Front. They worked at tag teaming Germany forcing them to divert divisions from the west over to the Eastern Front to counter the Russians. The end result of this was ruinous to Russia as these offensives took a huge toll on them, but they kept their allies in the west alive.

This is one of the great unsung stories in war and Russia, for all its historical nastiness, has a long history of honouring its commitments. They may be brutal, but they're consistent.

Russia is run by idiots. They could have cultivated friendly relationships with the countries they used to dominate, and gained far more than trying to seize territory with military force. No one, no one is going to want to join them now under any circumstances.

They don't want people to "join" them, they want them under their rule or nicely in their sphere of influence. Look up Congress Poland.

They are not idiots, their perspective is very different from ours and influence by how differently their history has been. It is bleaker and more pragmatic, they see buffer zones and places of utility where the West sees people that should be free to self-determine.

They want Moscow protected behind hundreds of miles of their own territory like it once was before the Ukraine gained independence, they want Sevastopol's flanks safely covered so they can directly supply the Crimea without relying on the Kerch Straits bridge as their sole land connection to it and eventually they'll want the Baltic ports and the their western buffer zone extended like it once was with the Warsaw Pact.

[Frustration]

It would be much cheaper to have a "sphere of influence" defined by friendly economic relationships, rather than military force. Regions full of self-determined people already ARE a buffer zone - and anyone trying to get through them would earn the ire of the international community.

Now Russia has earned the ire of the international community, and is failing to accomplish their strategic goals to boot.

In any case: who is going to invade Russia through its southeastern border? It's a frickin' nuclear power, no one invades nuclear powers.

They're idiots.

[Madner Kami]

It would be much cheaper to have a "sphere of influence" defined by friendly economic relationships, rather than military force. Regions full of self-determined people already ARE a buffer zone - and anyone trying to get through them would earn the ire of the international community.

Now Russia has earned the ire of the international community, and is failing to accomplish their strategic goals to boot.

In any case: who is going to invade Russia through its southeastern border? It's a frickin' nuclear power, no one invades nuclear powers.

They're idiots.

NATO obviously. Haven't you noticed that NATO constantly was at war with Russia for the last 30 years? We killed millions of their people, ruined their economy, stole their resources and occupied their territories!!!!111

Ohey Rick, nice to see... What do you mean "back to my home dimension"? I did what? Your portal gun was on my seat and I accidentally activated it? It transported me into an alternate dimension, where NATO hasn't attacked Russia once in over 30 years, the West paid for, built and maintained pretty much all the modern russian infrastructure which is now in russian hands and not a single NATO-soldier ever set foot on russian territory and the only Russians who got killed in recent years were killed by what is essentially the KGB? Oh, oh sorry Forumites, my fault. I'm from dimension N-470.

[Frustration]

The only rivals I could imagine actually invading Russian territory are the Chinese. And they wouldn't be going through the Ukraine in that circumstance.