The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Madner Kami]

The only rivals I could imagine actually invading Russian territory are the Chinese. And they wouldn't be going through the Ukraine in that circumstance.

That's the most bewildering part of this conflict. NATO has absolutely zero interest in russian territory and even resources. Pretty much everything could be gained elsewhere and Russia was actually en route to be integrated into the european economic zone. Slowly and unsteadily and mostly via Germany, but the way to bilateral security was there and easy to reach.
On the other end of the continent, you've got two, arguably three nations of which Russia holds occupied territory and all those nations still claim those territories, other than say Poland or even Finnland. China wants Outer Manchuria back, Japan at least the four southernmost Kurill Islands and if I am not completely mistaken, Mongolia also still has some unresolved claims floating about (Tuvan Republic). Unlike Europe, China is an expansionist and openly imperialistic power with a gigantic army being on the upswing and Japan has a rather uncomfortable relationship with their imperialistic past, with a notable upswing of nationalist elements.

I mean, yeah, NATO is expanding, but so what? The more members NATO has, the better it is on the defensive, but the more unlikely an offensive becomes (50 heads have a harder time agreeing on something without pressure, than 25). If I were a russian leader, my military would largely be distributed in the East, while I'd try to intertwine my economy with the West (and argueably with China, so I can maybe relax on military expenditures in the future), which also should have the neat side-effect of NATO not having a reason to expand and encroach, because the countries on my western and southern flanks wouldn't need to be worried about me.
Putin has pretty much everything backwars from my point of view and the only reason I can make out for it is, that he views the world through the lense of a dictator. Democracy and broad economic wealth as displayed and developed by the West is a direct threat to his model of a society and state. China has a similar model, so they are the good guys in his eyes, while we're the threat...

[Frustration]

I can only assume that the military-strategic claims about the Ukrainian War are nonsense, and they actually just want its resources and are ideologically committed to 'reclaiming' all former territory.

[CmdrKing]

Finland has formally announced their intend to apply for NATO membership.

https://apnews.com/article/sweden-finla ... f9b194cbec

Sweden from what I've read is expected to follow suit within the week.

someone who's brushed up on it more recently can correct me, but from what I understand this should take at most few months to finalize. Finland (and Sweden) already does a fair few military exercises with EU (and thus NATO) members, so it's basically just a matter of everyone signing the proper treaties and affirming a few qualifications everyone basically knows Finland meets.

Putin's capacity to Find Out after sustained Fucking Around continues to grow, it seems.

[clearspira]

Russia has threatened retaliation if Finland joins NATO. Frankly, I doubt he has enough troops to fight a war on two fronts.
And this is Finland we are talking about. They are a tough little country.

[BridgeConsoleMasher]

Putin's capacity to Find Out after sustained Fucking Around continues to grow, it seems.

I could totally be wrong about this, but his position relative to world leaders and the way he got into power seem more tuned to a high-powered CEO, rather than not only a publicly endorsed official (lol) but also a ruler.

[Madner Kami]

Finland has formally announced their intend to apply for NATO membership.

https://apnews.com/article/sweden-finla ... f9b194cbec

Sweden from what I've read is expected to follow suit within the week.

someone who's brushed up on it more recently can correct me, but from what I understand this should take at most few months to finalize. Finland (and Sweden) already does a fair few military exercises with EU (and thus NATO) members, so it's basically just a matter of everyone signing the proper treaties and affirming a few qualifications everyone basically knows Finland meets.

Putin's capacity to Find Out after sustained Fucking Around continues to grow, it seems.

Originally it was planned to be announced by Finnland and Sweden at the same time, dunno what the holdup in Sweden is at the moment. Either way, the US already agreed to send a tripwire force to both countries as soon as they announce their formal joining (that both will join was already a done deal about a month ago, though formalities and plebiscite must be followed, hence the delays). Both countries have been highly integrated NATO-partners/-affiliates since quite a while already, so all technical details should be a breeze and everything is mostly a question of paperwork.

Fun-fact, since Sweden and Finnland are part of the EU, they've been in "NATO Light" already since quite a while. The EU-charta has a clause similar to NATO's Article 5 (that's the article which declares that an armed attack on one member is to be considered an armed attack on all NATO-members) and if either country would've been attacked, a full NATO-intervention always was just around the corner.

Putin's capacity to Find Out after sustained Fucking Around continues to grow, it seems.

I could totally be wrong about this, but his position relative to world leaders and the way he got into power seem more tuned to a high-powered CEO, rather than not only a publicly endorsed official (lol) but also a ruler.

CEO? No. Mafia-boss. Putin directly comes from the former KGB (he was an agent in Eastern Germany before and during the Soviet collapse) and has vast ties to organized crime.

Russia has threatened retaliation if Finland joins NATO. Frankly, I doubt he has enough troops to fight a war on two fronts.
And this is Finland we are talking about. They are a tough little country.

Invading Finland wouldn't have been a breeze before the NATO-expansion for multiple reasons. I already named the mututal defense-treaty of EU-members above, but there's also a mututal defense organization amongst the nordic states (Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland and Iceland), aka the Nordic Defence Cooperation (NorDefCo). Though technically not a binding agreement like NATO's article 5, a war with any of the members of NorDefCo would've almost certainly brought a direct intervation of the other members. And the EU. And NATO would be right around the corner as well, as the more western EU-members would send their forces and equipment eastward, while the US would've stayed behind and taken over rearline defense, which almost certainly would end with an (air-)attack on US-forces somewhere and thus a full NATO-intervention (hence the name tripwire forces).

That's probably the most funny part. Russia isn't technically wrong in being afraid of NATO. Any attempt to expand westward almost automatically means a war against the entire developed world (and you can see how well that is working in Ukraine, a state that isn't even part of any of the above defensive treaties, but which gets massive amounts of supplies, training and intelligence from western countries). But that's also the point completely being missed by Russians at large: NATO doesn't attack. NATO waits to be attacked. Don't attack NATO and everything is sunshine, roses and lollipops and if you attack... Well... Cyka Blyat! indeed.

[CharlesPhipps]

Russia has threatened retaliation if Finland joins NATO. Frankly, I doubt he has enough troops to fight a war on two fronts.
And this is Finland we are talking about. They are a tough little country.

For once, I agree with you and note the kind of Biff-like ignorance that Russia seemed to possess.

Russia: We will invade the Ukraine if it joins NATO.

*Ukraine doesn't join NATO*

*Russia invades anyway*

Finland: Well, NOT joining NATO didn't work out for them. Let's try joining.

Russia: HOW COULD YOU!

I can only assume that the military-strategic claims about the Ukrainian War are nonsense, and they actually just want its resources and are ideologically committed to 'reclaiming' all former territory.

I'm going to express it overtly, this whole business was about the fact Putin made his life's work to rebuild the Soviet Union and his fury at NATO was the fact that when Poland and other countries joined, it became impossible to "reclaim" them via military force.

His actions have furthermore basically validated NATO as an organization when it had been viewed as a relic of the Cold War by many people.

Albania is going, "Yeah, that was a good call on our part."

[Frustration]

Russia has threatened retaliation if Finland joins NATO. Frankly, I doubt he has enough troops to fight a war on two fronts.

You're not wrong generally, but... you're making a logical error. Retaliation != use of troops. Russia is known for poisoning people with toxic and radioactive compounds, hacking utility companies, and conducting secret deniable operations. (Granted, we're known for the latter, too.)

[CharlesPhipps]

Russia has threatened retaliation if Finland joins NATO. Frankly, I doubt he has enough troops to fight a war on two fronts.

You're not wrong generally, but... you're making a logical error. Retaliation != use of troops. Russia is known for poisoning people with toxic and radioactive compounds, hacking utility companies, and conducting secret deniable operations. (Granted, we're known for the latter, too.)

Oddly, it was much better at this than actual invasion. They might have gotten away with taking Ukraine if they'd arranged for Zelensky to fall down a flight of stairs and installed another puppet.

[McAvoy]

I can only assume that the military-strategic claims about the Ukrainian War are nonsense, and they actually just want its resources and are ideologically committed to 'reclaiming' all former territory.

You and probably a billion others or more are assuming this too.

Nato and the claims of neo Nazism in Ukraine are bullshit. This just seems to be a territorial claim. Land and resources. That's all.

But the war had made it counterproductive. Sanctions, the losses, the world stage trust and prestige is really cutting into that bottom line of acquiring Ukraine.