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On the matter of China

Posted: Mon Jul 11, 2022 10:03 pm
by Madner Kami
I'll take the liberty and branch "The Ukrainian Crisis of 2022", which I still argue should be renamed as "Russian Invasion of Ukraine of 2022" btw., into this thread. I hereby declare, that it shall contain news from China, so as to not further muddy the water in the Ukraine-thread.

So. Why did I branch this out? That's why:

China crushes mass protest by bank depositors demanding their life savings back
Hong Kong (CNN)Chinese authorities on Sunday violently dispersed a peaceful protest by hundreds of depositors, who sought in vain to demand their life savings back from banks that have run into a deepening cash crisis.
Since April, four rural banks in China's central Henan province have frozen millions of dollars worth of deposits, threatening the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of customers in an economy already battered by draconian Covid lockdowns.
Anguished depositors have staged several demonstrations in the city of Zhengzhou, the provincial capital of Henan, over the past two months, but their demands have invariably fallen on deaf ears.

On Sunday, more than 1,000 depositors from across China gathered outside the Zhengzhou branch of the country's central bank, the People's Bank of China, to launch their largest protest yet, more than half a dozen protesters told CNN.

The demonstration is among the largest China has seen since the pandemic, with domestic travel limited by various Covid restrictions on movement. Last month, Zhengzhou authorities even resorted to tampering with the country's digital Covid health-code system to restrict the movements of depositors and thwart their planned protest, sparking a nationwide outcry.

[...]

The face-off lasted for several hours until after 11 a.m., when rows of security officers suddenly charged up the stairs and clashed with protesters, who threw bottles and other small objects at them.
The scene quickly descended into chaos, as security officers dragged protesters down the stairs and beat those who resisted, including women and the elderly, according to witnesses and social media videos.
One woman from eastern Shandong province told CNN she was pushed to the ground by two security guards, who twisted and injured her arm. A 27-year-old man from the southern city of Shenzhen, surnamed Sun, said he was kicked by seven or eight guards on the ground before being carried away. A 45-year-old man from the central city of Wuhan said his shirt was completely torn at the back during the scuffle.
Many said they were shocked by the sudden burst of violence by the security forces.

[...]

The protest comes at a politically sensitive time for the ruling Communist Party, just months before its leader Xi Jinping is expected to seek an unprecedented third term at a key meeting this fall.
Large-scale demonstrations over lost savings and ruined livelihoods could be perceived as a political embarrassment for Xi, who has promoted a nationalistic vision of leading the country to "great rejuvenation."
Henan authorities are under tremendous pressure to stop the protests. But depositors remain undeterred. As the issue drags on, many have become ever more desperate to recover their savings.
Huang, the depositor from Wuhan, lost his job in the medical cosmetology industry this year, as businesses struggled in the pandemic. Yet he is unable to withdraw any of his life savings -- of over 500,000 yuan ($75,000) -- from a rural bank in Henan.
"Being unemployed, all I can live on is my past savings. But I can't even do that now -- how am I supposed to (support my family)?" said Huang, whose son is in high school.
Sun, from Shenzhen, is struggling to keep his machine factory from bankruptcy after losing his deposit of 4 million yuan ($597,000) to a Henan bank. He can't even pay his more than 40 employees without the funds.
Funtimes coming to China, if they stay their course. Historically, banks refusing to give out money to their depositors tends to snowball hard, once it becomes common knowledge. The chinese banking-system is a bit opaque and these are only four rural banks which may or may not be similarly intertwined with other banking institutes as they are elsewhere in the world (and it's a bit unclear to me, why these four banks refuse to pay out).

Update: The banks are indeed insolvent. At first it was "technical difficulties", then the narrative switched to the banks being under Investigation for widespread fraud. This has been going on for a few months, ever since the Evergrande-bubble having burst. There are between 1.5 to 6 billion Dollar frozen in these accounts.

Re: On the matter of China

Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2022 3:06 pm
by CmdrKing
I’ve only marginally kept abreast of the issue, but the sense I got is the spark for this may actually have been China’s hard ban in crypto currency. Their financial system has been… fragile for a while and largely propped up by make-work projects and the like, but these banks seem to have been gambling in crypto to make up lack of other opportunities and the ban froze their ability to get liquid, which took a few months to show but is now rapidly accelerating because they finally ran out entirely.

I could be wrong though, I might be mixing this up with another story.

Re: On the matter of China

Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2022 3:39 pm
by Madner Kami
Right, I completely forgot about that ban. That's a potential angle I didn't have on my radar. Thank you!

Re: On the matter of China

Posted: Sat Jul 16, 2022 4:40 am
by McAvoy
Tbh I don't really follow that close with China but I have been hearing about how fragile their economy is for a long time. That it's bound to collapse soon and all that.

I will believe it when I see it. Also it going down hard will have reverberations throughout the world.

Re: On the matter of China

Posted: Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:04 am
by BridgeConsoleMasher
Four rural banks? Not that it's not indicative somewhat to Beijing's reputation, though it's hardly anything revelatory to the west on an economic front.

Re: On the matter of China

Posted: Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:13 am
by McAvoy
BridgeConsoleMasher wrote: Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:04 am Four rural banks? Not that it's not indicative somewhat to Beijing's reputation, though it's hardly anything revelatory to the west on an economic front.
Yeah four banks of my hometown closed. Pray for the US.

Re: On the matter of China

Posted: Sat Jul 16, 2022 8:36 am
by Madner Kami
You read rural and understand "a few farmers". That's not what it is. Henan is one of the most populous provinces of China. A houndred million people live there, it posesses the 5th largest GDP within China (just under 1 Billion US-Dollar) and has about half the land-area of Texas.

Re: On the matter of China

Posted: Sat Jul 16, 2022 1:01 pm
by BridgeConsoleMasher
Madner Kami wrote: Sat Jul 16, 2022 8:36 am You read rural and understand "a few farmers". That's not what it is. Henan is one of the most populous provinces of China. A houndred million people live there, it posesses the 5th largest GDP within China (just under 1 Billion US-Dollar) and has about half the land-area of Texas.
Fair enough, don’t get me wrong. It is a matter of liberty, but ends more at the financial infrastructure as a matter of policy rather than stubborn authoritative power grab at the grand level.

Re: On the matter of China

Posted: Sun Jul 31, 2022 2:46 pm
by Madner Kami
The real estate crisis has now spread to the steel industry. The video also nicely highlights how this crisis effects not just the accounting-balance side of things, but also the quality and everything that follows.


youtu.be/O7k4k-Dy8x4

Some of the comments underneath the video are also quite enlightening in regards to how business is done in China:
Sovietskikh

I once worked for a company which sourced steel for construction projects around Europe. Most clients from most EU nations were fine, but Russia and China (from which we imported steel) were repeatedly bad clients and needed special treatment. Big payments can take a while to clear and some Russian companies always used the excuse of "payment is coming we promise" but sometimes never paid, so we only sent them product the moment payment cleared, no sooner. The Chinese were often horrible to deal with. They would regularly try to scam us with subpar quality steel, and would say things like "we're foreigners and we don't know how business is done here" to gaslight us.
charlie pearce

The quality of the steel we were buying had fallen beyond a joke.
I worked in the sheet metal department of an air conditioning co and couldn't believe being shown the centres of 8×4 foot sheets from a 1 ton load.
The sheets had been rolled that thin that they had large holes in the centre of them making them unusable..
It was a joke ..
We stopped buying from them.
gaijinPH

I used to source steel for a local contractor for public infrastructure. I get to talk with suppliers and I always hear the same thing, there are 2 groups of steel. Local steel and China steel. China steel tends to be more brittle as the suppliers told me. Not wanting to take a risk, I splurged the extra 2 to 3% to get the stronger steel. After seeing videos of construction sites in China, where just dropping the bent rebars is enough to destroy them, I feel I made the right choice.
Oh and of course CoViD is on the rise everywhere again, but so far it's China that just doesn't find an end to their crisis. Currently 41 cities are under partial or total lockdown, with a combined total of ~270m people being locked down and nearly 20% of China's economic activity along with it.


youtu.be/8iDl3pSTJ3E

Re: On the matter of China

Posted: Tue Aug 02, 2022 3:08 pm
by clearspira
Nancy Pelosi has landed in Taiwan despite threats of doom. Like the Russians, its easy to show up a bully by just confronting them and calling their bluff.