The most excellent theory for Trek's WWIII inconsistency I've ever seen

[Yukaphile]

From TV Tropes' WMG page.

The exact date and time range of the Eugenics Wars seems to be all over the place. The TOS clearly dates it in the late 90s, other references to it seem to place it in the 21st century, and DS9 placed it in the 22nd century. Yet the Voyager crew goes to 1996 and we see NO evidence of the Eugenics War, and Sisko and crew go back to the early 21st. None of what we are told and what we see quite add up. I see three reasons for why this can be the case without it being a continuity errors.1) There was a post nuclear dark age and alot of specific information was lost from this era. So history can record around the time the events of the Eugenics War and WWIII happened, but the exact details are lost so historical accuracy is spotty.2) The two main events of the Eugenics War and WWIII were interconnected events and some people disagree about exactly which was which. It would be like if a historian pointed out that WWI led directly to WWII so in fact one could argue that WWII started in 1914. So when some people say the Eugenics War and some say WWIII they may be blending eras because of that particular persons level of education and perspective on history.3) Some people consider the start of the Eugenics War to be when the Augments were first 'born' which was in the 90's, however they were only infants then and had to grow up. However just their births may have started to cause or been the results of shifting political situations, laying the ground work for the future conflict that occurred when they reached maturity some 20 years later. However some people consider the start of the Eugenics War to be after the augments reached maturity and started firing. From that standpoint the 'date' of the Eugenics War could deviate by up to 20 or so years and still be accurate. The conditions which gave rise to WWIII were directly descended from the aftermath of the Eugenics War, analogous to how WWI led to WWII. So some people consider WWIII to have started during the post Eugenics Wars political hostilities, however some people consider WWIII to only be the actual nuclear exchange itself. Some people may even consider the post atomic horror to still technically be WWIII. So from that standpoint, combined with the loss of historical accuracy due to the post atomic dark age, and then how much information drift you get over 200+ years before the star trek starts the exact dates and figures of the Eugenics War, WWIII, the Post Atomic Horror and even Colonel Green's War could vary a great deal.

[clearspira]

1996 having no sign of war actually doesn't mean much. 1) The Eugenics Wars could have been in the Middle East and indeed is likely given Khan's ethnicity and 2) its a time travel episode which means that timey-wimey is in full effect. And if you want to get REALLY timey-wimey on this, Trek has had all sorts of divergence points in its history that could lead to advanced spaceflight in the 20th century, the most prominent being the fact that a mere ten years prior to this, Scotty gives a corporation transparent aluminium and Chekov left a phaser and a communicator that was never stated to be recovered. Radically lightweight and tough materials, advanced power sources, subspace communication, duotronic computing. Who knows what they could have gotten from this? And I would say most damning of all is that Rain Robinson owns a DY-100 model. The only way she could own that in-universe is if the class exists in 1996.
And unrelated to this, but I've always wondered: that woman's kidney that McCoy regrew. That does not happen naturally; someone is going to be taking possession of that body after she dies (if she's lucky). Regenerating organs sounds like something you would want in an augment huh?

[clearspira]

Here's three interesting bits from Memory Alpha

The original dating of the Eugenics Wars was reaffirmed by Phlox stating in "Borderland" that Arik Soong's Augments were pretty sophisticated for 20th century genetics. Phlox later mentions to the Klingons that genetic engineering on Earth was "banned decades ago," suggesting that the ban was not necessarily adopted by Humans immediately after the Eugenics Wars.

In "Space Seed", Spock describes the Eugenics Wars as "the era of your last so-called world war," suggesting this conflict could be World War III. In TOS: "Bread and Circuses", Spock states that thirty-seven million people died in World War III – consistent with Phlox's assertion that over thirty million died in the Eugenics Wars (again connecting World War III and the Eugenics Wars) – but not Riker's claim that six hundred million died in the nuclear conflict in Star Trek: First Contact, and again repeated by Burnham in "New Eden". As Spock was speaking in the context of despotism, and what constitutes despotic "responsibility" is open to interpretation, his statement may not give the total death count.

In TNG: "Up The Long Ladder", Data states that Humans were still recovering from the effects of World War III in the early 22nd century. This statement makes more sense within the context of a mid 21st century war than that of a late 20th century war, suggesting that World War III and the Eugenics Wars are not the same conflict, as confirmed in Star Trek: First Contact.

[FaxModem1]

Well, if you want to go by the novels, the Eugenics wars were basically a bunch of conflicts between the Augments and their cults/followers/terrorist groups, and it was mostly a cloak and dagger war consisting of terrorist attacks and skirmishes that the rest of the world didn't really pay attention to.

Essentially, they did happen, and the Augments did escape in 1996, and it was only through the efforts of the heroes Gary Seven, Isis, and Roberta Lincoln constantly interfering that the war didn't get as bad as it could have been.

[Jonathan101]

I believe the official line at present is that the Eugenics Wars were some sort of "secret war" that most people at the time weren't even aware of, with the Augments managing to seize power from the shadows without drawing much attention to themselves.

This isn't really in-line with how TOS portrayed Khan- he seemed like an admired public figure and Scotty mentions always having a fondness for him (though for some reason he failed to recognise him on sight but that's a different problem), but it's meant to explain the discrepancies to some degree.

[technobabbler]

if it was up to me, I'd retcon and erase WWIII, not the Eugenics War.

To nitpick, it makes no sense that Zephram Cochrane built his warp missile in the middle of a homeless camp.

If First Contact was set in a compound of PhD preppers in Montana (who saw WWIII on the horizon) that would make more sense.

[MissKittyFantastico]

There's a perfectly good explanation for all of this: we do not discuss it with outsiders.

[Yukaphile]

Agreed. Spock even commented that they didn't reveal there were 80 missing "Napoleons" because would you reveal that to "war-weary populations?" So obviously people knew. Sounds like one of the dumbest decisions of the Star Trek EU - and this is the same franchise that had an X-Men crossover, and then didn't really do anything with it.

[Nessus]

My read on it was that one flowed out of the aftermath of the other. Sort of like WWI and WWII, except in this case, the first part wasn't considered a full WW.

My headcanon:

I imagined the augments started taking cities and establishing kingdoms in various parts of the middle east and Asia in the early nineties, then those kingdoms got consolidated under Khan as he suborned or beat out his rival siblings, after which he started to sprawl/creep his territories outward. At the height of his empire he controlled an area maybe 1/4 the size of Russia, but kind of spread out in patches rather than all in one block. It was called "the Eugenics Wars" instead of "the Eugenics War" or "WWIII" because it was fought in starts and stops between periods of positioning and posturing, with scattered conventional battles instead of large united fronts. At some point there was a load bearing oversight on Khan's part though, leading to a rapid domino of territory losses until he had to concede defeat. The whole thing only lasted maybe a little over half a decade from the first Augment coup, to the launch of the Botany Bay.

After Khan and his siblings fled the coop, his former territories became power vacuums. Lots of internal infighting, conflicting attempts by outside powers to "reclaim" the same territories, and the predictable socioeconomic misery that all brings followed. The fighting started almost immediately, but took around 2 decades to escalate to the point where someone felt pissy/squeezed enough to start throwing nukes. What's colloquially known as "WWIII" later refers just to the nuclear exchange, but from a historian's perspective, "the Eugenics Wars" and "WWIII" are two ends of the same conflict chain. Sort of like how the Rwandan genocide is directly linked to the Congo wars.

I feel like eastern Europe and Asia got the worst of the nuking. North America got some hits b/c of M.A.D.-related protocols getting tripped regardless of level of direct involvement. It was enough to cut of some local regions temporarily, cause a huge economic crash, and huge delays rebuilding/reconnecting effected areas b/c the relief needed far outstripped the government's (or anybodies) resources and manpower. So depending on what part of the country you were in, you might have seen an intact state undergoing depression/unrest like in that DS9 time-travel two-parter, or areas that were stable but neglected like in First Contact, or areas that had been entirely cut off or forgotten for a couple years growing cancerous little fiefdoms like in Encounter at Farpoint.

I don't accept the "covert war" thing as canon. I consider it a very awkward attempt to maintain the kayfabe of Trek still being "our" future, that breaks more suspension of disbelief than it preserves. I'm perfectly fine with Trek's past becoming alternate alternate history fic as the real world catches up with it. To me that just adds another layer to the sci-fi.

...But I'm biased in that I've been thoroughly sick and tired of strained "the masquerade" shite since like halfway through Stargate: SG1's original run. It's okay, writers: it's not actually necessary for us to believe this stuff is taking place in "our" world, so if it comes to it it's really not worth risking the logic of your story/setting for that, like, at all.

[clearspira]

I don't accept the "covert war" thing as canon. I consider it a very awkward attempt to maintain the kayfabe of Trek still being "our" future, that breaks more suspension of disbelief than it preserves. I'm perfectly fine with Trek's past becoming alternate alternate history fic as the real world catches up with it. To me that just adds another layer to the sci-fi.

...But I'm biased in that I've been thoroughly sick and tired of strained "the masquerade" shite since like halfway through Stargate: SG1's original run. It's okay, writers: it's not actually necessary for us to believe this stuff is taking place in "our" world, so if it comes to it it's really not worth risking the logic of your story/setting for that, like, at all.

THIS so very much. This need for it to be set in our universe pisses me off. Do they realise we are only about 10 years away from the Sanctuary Districts? What are they going to do when that does not happen? Heck, there are those of us reading this who could actually live to see the fictitious launch of the Phoenix and the Vulcan arrival - 2063 isn't that far away.