International Elections and Politics (no US/UK)

[TheNewTeddy]

If I recall correctly, the demographics of SFDebris is generally similar to many other websites; many people from the USA (perhaps half or more), many from the UK (maybe a quarter) and many from elsewhere

On forums with a makeup like this, there tends to be a lot of US politics, some UK politics, and threads about politics from elsewhere tend to vanish.


As such I'm hoping we can have some of those discussions here!!

There are a few elections around the world I'm following.




There are two elections on March 11

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_A ... tion,_2017

The state-level election in Western Australia will happen first due to time zones. Labor is expected to win.


Later the same day is elections in The Netherlands.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... tion,_2017

The most likely result is a VVD (conservative) victory, in alliance with CDA (christian democrat) and D66 (liberal). There is concern that PVV (nativist) will finish first, but coalition governments are common here.




April 23rd has France electing a President.

Complex field, most attention on Le Pen, the nativist candidate, with some people saying Le Pen, Putin, and Trump are similar in many ways. Important to know is France uses a two round system, so whoever the top two vote getters are go on to the next round; expected to be Le Pen and someone who is not Le Pen.




May 9th has elections in the Canadian province of British Columbia.

The Socialist/Labour NDP has had a constant lead in the polls over the Capitalist Liberal Party, but this was true before the last election and the Liberals still won. The Eco-Capitalist Greens hold 1 seat and may gain a few more.




May 21st will see Lebanon vote.

Two big alliances are the March 14th Alliance and the March 8th Alliance.
M14A is anti-Syria, and is supported by many Sunni muslims, while M8A is pro-Syria and is supported by many Shia muslims. While some Sunni and Shia support the 'other' side, it's mostly the Christian community that actually supports both sides, and as such, they may prove to be crucial swing voters.




September is full of elections.



Norway

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... tion,_2017

The current right-wing coalition will probably lose to the left coalition, but polls say its close.



New Zealand

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... tion,_2017

Interesting stuff here. The National Party has been government for a while, and for most of the past few years (through and prior to the last election) has maintained about 45%-50% in the polls. However, the PM stepped down a few months ago, and the new PM is the guy who lead the party to their worst showing ever a decade or so ago, so how well or poorly he does in the election is of great interest.



Germany

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... tion,_2017

Merkel may not remain Chancellor.

CDU (conservative) is currently in coalition with SPD (socialist)
AfD (nativist) is considered the big 'threat' of the election.
Die Linke (left), the Greens (green) and the FDP (liberal) could also win seats.

Traditionally the CDU and FDP form a coalition when possible, while the SPD and Greens do. Sometimes the Left can join a SPD-Green coalition, but in the past decade or two, CDU-SPD grand coalitions have also become common.

My read is that the grand coalition will win, but which party wins more seats is open. Merkel's party had a lead for ages, but the SPD picked Schultz as their chancellor candidate just a week or so ago, and he is very popular.

Will have to update with more as the situation progresses.






Supposedly, Italy is having another referendum this year, and South Korea will elect a new President; but the dates of these are not yet set.

[TheNewTeddy]

Just a few things FTR


I'm from Canada.
I do follow UK politics and elections.
I do not really follow US politics.
I'm hoping this thread will be a place I can post about international elections. That was my intent in creating it.

[Fixer]

The French presidential election is going to be a big one.

After the spate of attacks plus French PM being booed for telling the French people they should just live with terrorism, there's been a hard lurch to the right. Le Pen is staunchly anti-immigration and highly nationalistic. You may well see the end of the EU with her election.

I was discussing with my good friend Sven about the state of German politics. He believes it unlikely Merkel will be removed from power in the elections. She's near universally loathed by the German people at the moment, but the alternatives are people so far to the left or so far to to the right that she's seen as the least terrible option.

[TheNewTeddy]

The French presidential election is going to be a big one.

After the spate of attacks plus French PM being booed for telling the French people they should just live with terrorism, there's been a hard lurch to the right. Le Pen is staunchly anti-immigration and highly nationalistic. You may well see the end of the EU with her election.

I was discussing with my good friend Sven about the state of German politics. He believes it unlikely Merkel will be removed from power in the elections. She's near universally loathed by the German people at the moment, but the alternatives are people so far to the left or so far to to the right that she's seen as the least terrible option.

France is very interesting.

Le Pen is the candidate to beat, but who will beat her?

Sarkozy was defeated in the Primaries, as was the French PM. Fillon is the Right-wing party's candidate, while Hamon is the candidate from the governing Socialist Party. Melenchon is the far-left candidate, while Marcon is running a centrist campaign.

It's only been a week or so that all these candidates have been nailed down.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... tion,_2017

Marcon seems most likely to make it to the 2nd round, at the moment, but Fillon is close behind. His problem is he's being dogged by scandals. Hamon is only a few points back from this, but he's being chased by Melenchon. Given margins of error and the way campaigns sometimes implode, it really is possible any 2 of the big 5 can make it to the final round, with Le Pen being the most likely to be in the final round, with Marcon a close second, and Fillon in third.

Fortunately for non-nativists, Le Pen is polling a defeat in the final round against either of these two.




As for Germany

The "Left" parties (IE The Left and The Greens) are too weak to guarantee a coalition with SPD. Schultz really does seem like the only way to defeat Merkel, even if the government, in general, does not change.

[Fixer]

I'd grant Le Pen more of an advantage in the polls that what's shown. Brexit and Trump both ended up bucking the trend due to people being unwilling to state their true opinions outside of the polling booths. With Le Pen having many of the same sentiments there's a chance there will be another election suprise.

[J!!]

I was discussing with my good friend Sven about the state of German politics. He believes it unlikely Merkel will be removed from power in the elections. She's near universally loathed by the German people at the moment, but the alternatives are people so far to the left or so far to to the right that she's seen as the least terrible option.

well, that doesn't sound distressingly familiar at all...

[Rasp]

South Korea also has an election this year the opposition hopes to replace the incompetent and massively corrupt Park Geun-hye with a far more progressive leader after her impeachment is formalized. Given the mass protests in Seoul against the conservative/neoliberal policies of the previous administration its far more likely for a left-libertarian populist to be favored in the upcoming election - my contacts from the region seem to indicate the anger doesn't seem to be abating.

President Park had previously offered to step aside peacefully back in December but the opposition party was no longer open negotiation opting instead to bring the hammer of impeachment down on her full force. Given the massive scale of corruption under President Park the fury of the people is hard not to seem justified. South Korea will likely be poisoned against conservative and neoliberal candidates for quite a while - likely leading to increased tension with united states and japan.

[Fixer]

I had heard some crazy talk about the South Korean government being run by some secret female cabal. Quick google search came up with this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... 5beacbbe18

https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comm ... under_the/

We South Koreans call this shadow cabal of 8 women '8선녀 (Pal Sun Nyo)'. To translate it literally, this means 'The 8 Heavenly Fairies'.
Their head, Choi Soon-sil is the main target of South Korean media right now. She's hiding in Germany, or somewhere in Europe right now.

The entire thing sounds like a plot to a Bond movie.

[Rasp]

I had heard some crazy talk about the South Korean government being run by some secret female cabal. Quick google search came up with this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... 5beacbbe18

https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comm ... under_the/

We South Koreans call this shadow cabal of 8 women '8선녀 (Pal Sun Nyo)'. To translate it literally, this means 'The 8 Heavenly Fairies'.
Their head, Choi Soon-sil is the main target of South Korean media right now. She's hiding in Germany, or somewhere in Europe right now.

The entire thing sounds like a plot to a Bond movie.

You see what I mean with the massive scale of corruption? it was somehow WORSE than the united states and its oligarchy. Main difference was the Koreans were able to keep a lid on it a while. I'm sure the SJW's on one side or the other are overjoyed to hear it was matriarchal but it was still a frillen oligarchy.

[Fixer]

North Korea and conspiracy theory boards. Occasionally right.
https://i.redd.it/zy1oldvnv1ux.jpg

Truth is stranger than fiction. Thanks Greentext.

Of course we've also just had the North Korean ballistic missile test and Trump promising to be tough in response. The whole Korean situation sounds like it's going to become very unstable in the near future.

Edit: and apparently in the last few hours Kim Jong Un's brother has been assassinated.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-38971655

Edit2: So two female North Korean spies poisoned him. Yes, still sounds like a Bond movie plot we're living in.