The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Jonathan101]

Ukraine isn't a NATO member so NATO won't get directly involved at all (it's a defensive alliance after all), as long as things stay in Ukraine.

Okay, stupid question time:

Couldn't the Ukraine have invited some friendly coalition troops into their country, to make Russia think twice about invading? Really, assuming Ukraine survives as an independent nation after all this, I can't think of a better way for Russia to have convinced them that they need to enter NATO. I wonder whether NATO would consider admission to be too much of a red flag for Russia.

If they had issued such an invitation, would anyone have sent any troops?

Do we have any reason to think that the West is secretly giving supplies to the Ukraine?

The West is not "secretly" giving supplies to Ukraine- they are doing it openly. It's all over the news that weapons and aid are being sent by the US, the UK and other countries in support of Ukraine.

As to inviting "coalition" troops into Ukraine prior to invasion, firstly by "coalition" I assume you are referring to Afghanistan or Iraq, which were only called coalition forces because we were invading them- it's not a default name for the West or anything like that; secondly, Putin's whole case is that he's invading Ukraine because they are trying to be part of NATO and he views this as an act of aggression against Russia, so it would probably aggravate him more. If countries like America or Britain or whoever had sent troops into Ukraine to deter invasion they would have feared it would be seen as provocative instead, and Russia would probably have blamed any Western troop deaths on the West for being so reckless- he might have garnered more sympathy at home and abroad.

[Riedquat]

Even a genius needs accurate information; to make any kind of intelligent decisions, you need good data. In addition to tremendous cognitive capacity, an autocrat would need interpersonal insight to a nearly superhuman degree to judge the reliability of his support staff without being able to know anything about outcomes. Once you have people you can really trust to give you accurate data, you can judge others with that data, but you need a core staff of people willing and able to give you the truth.

This is one of the problems power-mad despots who can't tolerate anyone disagreeing with them fall in to, by shutting out "opposition" you shut yourself out of information that contradicts what you want to hear - including, very importantly, when you yourself are making mistakes. It's a hard thing for a normal person to be told that, an egomaniac just can't handle it at all.

[Riedquat]

Ukraine isn't a NATO member so NATO won't get directly involved at all (it's a defensive alliance after all), as long as things stay in Ukraine.

Okay, stupid question time:

Couldn't the Ukraine have invited some friendly coalition troops into their country, to make Russia think twice about invading? Really, assuming Ukraine survives as an independent nation after all this, I can't think of a better way for Russia to have convinced them that they need to enter NATO. I wonder whether NATO would consider admission to be too much of a red flag for Russia.

If they had issued such an invitation, would anyone have sent any troops?

Do we have any reason to think that the West is secretly giving supplies to the Ukraine?

They could, but ultimately why would they? The whole point of a defensive alliance is that it's for mutual support of the allies, not just anyone who happens to be threatened. That's possibly why Putin's so paranoid about Ukraine becoming a member - it'll weaken Russian influence still further, taking more of what for some reason he thinks is his. And because he seems to have convinced himself that Russia really is under threat by NATO, which it isn't (despite his best efforts to try to give it reasons to be a threat to Russia).

[Jonathan101]

Yup, Putin has lost his mind completely. I guess this is what happens when you rely on paranoia and brute force to hold an entire nation hostage.

He's always been a thoroughly nasty piece of work but has never been an idiot, wondering what's made him go over the edge? He seems to have a chip on his shoulder about Ukraine (due it it spurning Russia?), and having surrounded himself with sycophantic yes-men I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's come to believe his own rhetoric, and that he's always in full control of everything and nothing he does will ever be significantly opposed. More than one past dictator has ended up a victim of their hubris.

This could be the begining of the end for Putin, the fear is that he'll take everyone else out with him.

Ukraine has been in a state of civil war with the "separatist" republics on the Russian border for 8 years; this is really an escalation of something that's been going on since then as Russia has been supplying the separatists the whole time and already sent in small numbers of troops. It's basically a massive troop surge to solve an existing problem from his point of view.

The corrupt pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych was removed from power in a revolution in 2014 and his successors (who were not entirely free of corruption themselves admittedly) turned their policies towards the EU and to trying to join NATO, both of which Putin viewed as a threat to Russian military and economic interests.

Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Ukraine has had a series of Presidents who were either pro-Russia or anti-Russia, and when Putin came to power it was the crooked pro-Russian Leonard Kuchima who was in power- he was replaced by the anti-Russian Viktor Yushchenko who won despite rampant fraud on the part of the Kuchima campaign as well as an assassination attempt that left him temporarily disfigured, but Yushchenko fell out with his allies, dissolved parliament twice and was pounded in the 2010 election that brought in the pro-Russian Yanukovych.

In short, Putin's been planning this for years; recent events have just compelled him to act now. Firstly, the world has been busy and distracted by COVID which has wrecked havoc on the world economy which makes other nations fighting an expensive war against him unlikely; secondly, the US and their allies just pulled out of Afghanistan in humiliating fashion and the public won't want to be dragged into an even bigger conflict mere months afterwards; thirdly, he's managed to consolidate his position and make Russia more self-sufficient, plus he's being supported by China who have their own territorial ambitions; and fourthly, the pandemic hit Russia hard too so perhaps he just wants to distract from issues at home
and invading Ukraine is two birds with one stone.

It doesn't hurt that Trump made things easier for him these last few years, or that both America and France have elections this year (Britain might get one too as Boris is not popular), and Germany might be mad but won't do much as they are still dependant on Russian gas and oil despite efforts to find other sources.

Tl;dr- what Putin is doing now makes more sense if you look at it as just an escalation of the crisis in Ukraine in the last several years, and Putin feels like he is in a strong enough position at present to impose his will and solve the Ukrainian "problem" more directly as America looks weak right now while Russia and China feel stronger, with COVID adding to the pressure.

I'll also add that if global warming gets worse as it is expected to in the coming decades, Russia might be a big winner as when the Arctic melts it will open up new sea routes that Russia can use, plus frozen parts of Siberia will become more habitable; and yes, Russia has been making moves to capitalise on this and declaring frozen parts of the Arctic and parts of the northern Pacific ocean to be Russian territory in anticipation of this. This is another factor- Putin thinks that the not too distant future will be good for Russia and his actions in Ukraine are just part of his investment in the future, therefore he is willing to gamble here because Russia might become strong and prosperous regardless of the outcome.

[Frustration]

The West is not "secretly" giving supplies to Ukraine- they are doing it openly. It's all over the news that weapons and aid are being sent by the US, the UK and other countries in support of Ukraine.

I acknowledge what you've just said. Now: what are the chances that some countries are secretly giving additional support to Ukraine?

[Madner Kami]

What kind of support are you talking about? Intel? It's an open secret that the West and especially the US are feeding Ukraine with a metric arseload of data. Heck, it stands to reason that Putin's own lackeys are leaking information to the US and thus, by consequence, to Ukraine.

[Frustration]

I don't have any particular type of support in mind. Is there any kind of external support for Ukraine that Russia would consider worthy of getting upset over? If so, what do you think are the chances that someone is giving Ukraine that support?

Would allowing people to go to Ukraine for the purposes of physically fighting against Russia be at least one example?

[Mabus]

Russia is getting hit with big sanctions:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-roo ... -measures/

First, we commit to ensuring that selected Russian banks are removed from the SWIFT messaging system. This will ensure that these banks are disconnected from the international financial system and harm their ability to operate globally.

Second, we commit to imposing restrictive measures that will prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions.

Third, we commit to acting against the people and entities who facilitate the war in Ukraine and the harmful activities of the Russian government. Specifically, we commit to taking measures to limit the sale of citizenship—so called golden passports—that let wealthy Russians connected to the Russian government become citizens of our countries and gain access to our financial systems.

Fourth, we commit to launching this coming week a transatlantic task force that will ensure the effective implementation of our financial sanctions by identifying and freezing the assets of sanctioned individuals and companies that exist within our jurisdictions. As a part of this effort we are committed to employing sanctions and other financial and enforcement measures on additional Russian officials and elites close to the Russian government, as well as their families, and their enablers to identify and freeze the assets they hold in our jurisdictions. We will also engage other governments and work to detect and disrupt the movement of ill-gotten gains, and to deny these individuals the ability to hide their assets in jurisdictions across the world.

Finally, we will step up or coordination against disinformation and other forms of hybrid warfare.

About damn time.

[BridgeConsoleMasher]

I doubt Putin personally cares about Ukraine and it's more about appeasing his constituency.

[phantom000]

What kind of support are you talking about? Intel? It's an open secret that the West and especially the US are feeding Ukraine with a metric arseload of data. Heck, it stands to reason that Putin's own lackeys are leaking information to the US and thus, by consequence, to Ukraine.

Welcome to the age of social media. If a company can track what you do with your phone, imagine what its like trying to hide a tank column as it moves through hostile territory. At this point neither Russia, NATO or the Ukrainian forces can do anything without the whole world knowing about it.

When the Russians crossed the border into Ukraine it would not surprise me if CNN actually knew about it before the Ukrainians did. I don't know for certain, but it would not surprise me.