The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[phantom000]

It looks like the Russians are headed for something like the Winter War of 1939, invincible as long as they stay inside friendly territory, outside they are almost helpless.

If this is another Winter War (maybe we should call it Spring War) then the fighting will end in a bloody stalemate with the Russians annexing the regions they already control while the Ukrainians hold everything else.

[Madner Kami]

Russia is in the process of throwing everything and the kitchen-sink at Ukraine. Tajikistan, Khazakstan and Co are already gathering troops to send them there. Further troops from eastern Oblasts are currently being shipped westwards. There's talks about martial law upcoming in Russia within next week and, curiously enough, they suggested a new law which forces conscription on arrested anti-war protestors. This is in the process of getting really ugly in multiple ways.

[phantom000]

There's talks about martial law upcoming in Russia within next week and, curiously enough, they suggested a new law which forces conscription on arrested anti-war protestors. This is in the process of getting really ugly in multiple ways.

I knew Putin was crazy, I didn't think he was stupid. Sending untrained civilians into a combat zone is a recipe for disaster since there is a hundred ways they could get themselves and their teammates killed just because they don't know what they are doing. If they are there against their will, fighting a war they are against, for whatever reason, then its likely they will try to desert or worse, deliberately sabotage your own army if they feel the war is unjustified.

[Madner Kami]

Putin needs a victory at all costs. Tomorrow or on the following days, there'll be a staged celebration in Cherson with Hoorah!-patriots from Crimea. He's desperate and does everything he can to produce a result from this shitshow.

[Fuzzy Necromancer]

One of the nuclear plants is catching fire .-.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/3 ... s-liveblog

[phantom000]

One of the nuclear plants is catching fire .-.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/3 ... s-liveblog

That's not good. Given what almost happened at Chernobyl back in 1986 the thought of a similar incident in the middle of an active warzone is disturbing. With everyone worried about US and Russian nuking each other, is anyone going to stop to consider what happens if a reactor gets blown to pieces by artillery?

[CharlesPhipps]

That's not good. Given what almost happened at Chernobyl back in 1986 the thought of a similar incident in the middle of an active warzone is disturbing. With everyone worried about US and Russian nuking each other, is anyone going to stop to consider what happens if a reactor gets blown to pieces by artillery?

Thankfully, that seems to have been averted as a disaster but it seems to be that the Russians are just fucking STUPID in all this.

[Draco Dracul]

There's talks about martial law upcoming in Russia within next week and, curiously enough, they suggested a new law which forces conscription on arrested anti-war protestors.

The latter is almost certainly a bluff because otherwise its a recipe for revolutionary defeatism i.e. intentionally losing a foreign war to push the the public into an uprising against the government.

[Beastro]

Russia has the will but not the means on the international stage. The West is the opposite. The Ukraine is on its own and shouldn't be happy with the West after this.

One of the nuclear plants is catching fire .-.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/3 ... s-liveblog

That's not good. Given what almost happened at Chernobyl back in 1986 the thought of a similar incident in the middle of an active warzone is disturbing. With everyone worried about US and Russian nuking each other, is anyone going to stop to consider what happens if a reactor gets blown to pieces by artillery?

You better not be thinking it'll produce a nuclear initiation. It won't. The 86 incident was a pressure eruption from very special circumstances engineered by the idiocy of the reactor technicians as they ducked around.

When was the last time the Russian military launched something this big?

Even in Chechnya they struggled. Russia struggles to maintain a very small core of competent personnel and good tech. The rest is dross.

I'm really digging the international "yes we can" vibe surrounding Ukraine. It's unfortunate that we're just supposed to kinda watch it play out from the west.

I'm sickened by this being treated as yet another hashtag, "change your profile picture on Facebook to the Ukrainian flag" trend.

I'm reminded of Bismarck, "The great matters of the day will not be decided by speeches or major policy decisions but by blood and iron". You want Russia checked, then prepare for war or at least start flooding the Ukraine with tons of supplies and munitions and use them as a proxy.

And no, that wouldn't drag things into nuclear war. Nations know how to properly posture for that now and have for decades. There are reasons why the USN got ride of their nukes on their aircraft carriers, so that it freed them to be used more aggressively along coasts without their nuclear role being a consideration. Now, sending a carrier off the Russian coast is a power move, not a potential nuclear threat.

The desire here is to drive Russia out of the Ukraine, not push into Russia itself which would be where nukes step in. Nuclear weapons are in many ways a defensive weapon that guarantee your country can't be overrun, but they restrain your options in others ways.

There's talks about martial law upcoming in Russia within next week and, curiously enough, they suggested a new law which forces conscription on arrested anti-war protestors.

The latter is almost certainly a bluff because otherwise its a recipe for revolutionary defeatism i.e. intentionally losing a foreign war to push the the public into an uprising against the government.

Giving your internal opponents the military training needed to properly fight you isn't a very good idea, especially with Russia's history of revolt coming dissatisfaction from inside the military.

[Madner Kami]

You're aware of penal battalions? The Russians have quite some experience with these types of formations and if even half the stories from the PoWs are true, then the Russians have a very distant relationship with rebelling because of bad conditions.

Also, the sanction-measures taken are quite unprecedented. Aeroflott, the primary russian airline, if not outright the only russian airline, for example, is basically left without any planes, as all their planes are only leased. Sure, Putin will refuse to not use them regardless, but modern airplanes need a lot of maintenance and Russia now has access to nothing. No Tools, no parts, not even the fucking manuals... Russia has no access to any modern circuitry either and the best that China can deliver, is more than two generations old and even that isn't available in high quantities. Building new factories takes north of four years and guess what, the tooling for such factories is almost solely available from Germany...

Also, something is happening under the radar. In Germany, the entire camera-network on the Autobahnen were purposefully deactivated yesterday. The french carrier Charles des Gaules, whose battlegroup is officially currently on patrol at Syrias's coast to guard against IS-activities, has a new mission, namely to protect and patrol the airspace of the baltic states and Poland, which are decidedly nowhere near the Mediterranean Sea. And looking at the documents for what Germany ordered with the budget intended for the support of Ukraine, there's a lot of stuff in the bill that wasn't mentioned in the news. There's something brewing up here.

(And yes, I know it sounds a bit conspiracy-y, as much of the above is just adding up irregularities.)