The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[BridgeConsoleMasher]

I've been pondering something. We've seen how shitty the Russian armed forces are in the past few weeks. They have numbers on their side but their supply lines suck, their equipment is mostly old Soviet-era junk, and the morale of their troops are low. The Ukrainians have been capturing scores of them just with the promise of a cup of tea.

So that leads me to wonder about just how many of their nukes actually work, how many of them can actually be deployed even if they do, and how many of them are advanced enough to penetrate modern ballistic missile defence systems. And given Russia's new status as a vassal state of China, I cannot imagine Xi Jinping really wanting the end of the world to come about because of Putin's crusade to bring back the USSR.

How much China will continue to do business with Russia therefor isn't really certain but my guess is that the bar is rather low given how much China commands with its global financial interactivity. They also share a huge border. If Russia deployed nukes offensively then China would probably join the west in doing whatever it can to stop them. If it was an escalated conflict then they would rationalize the incident on the UN level.

As far as nuclear arsenal between the US and Russia, I thought it was like comparing the size of Nike vs Adidas in sportswear.

There's an interesting article that Russia's invasion more or less exposed China to its own failings--specifically that a lot of nations DO NOT THINK LIKE THEM. Specifically, China has always believed it could get what it wanted economically and with intimidation (see Hong Kong) in the long term.

Russia using brute force exposed them to realizing that....well, a lot of their allies are morons.

https://www.stimson.org/2022/ukraine-di ... ve-a-clue/

What Russia is doing is not very different from what goes on in the middle east. Just that any intervention by the west is historically a big deal, and we've naturally covered a lot of ground in that particular area for 3 decades over the course of 3 wars.

Remember though that Trump sent missile strikes to Syria as a gesture. Putin knows Biden won't send any stingers into the unproven ground unless provoked.

The US has been shipping stingers and javelins into the country since before the shooting started. What are you talking about?

I'm talking about strategic military rebuffs against what Putin is doing. And what has Biden done as of lately?

[hammerofglass]

I've been pondering something. We've seen how shitty the Russian armed forces are in the past few weeks. They have numbers on their side but their supply lines suck, their equipment is mostly old Soviet-era junk, and the morale of their troops are low. The Ukrainians have been capturing scores of them just with the promise of a cup of tea.

So that leads me to wonder about just how many of their nukes actually work, how many of them can actually be deployed even if they do, and how many of them are advanced enough to penetrate modern ballistic missile defence systems. And given Russia's new status as a vassal state of China, I cannot imagine Xi Jinping really wanting the end of the world to come about because of Putin's crusade to bring back the USSR.

How much China will continue to do business with Russia therefor isn't really certain but my guess is that the bar is rather low given how much China commands with its global financial interactivity. They also share a huge border. If Russia deployed nukes offensively then China would probably join the west in doing whatever it can to stop them. If it was an escalated conflict then they would rationalize the incident on the UN level.

As far as nuclear arsenal between the US and Russia, I thought it was like comparing the size of Nike vs Adidas in sportswear.

There's an interesting article that Russia's invasion more or less exposed China to its own failings--specifically that a lot of nations DO NOT THINK LIKE THEM. Specifically, China has always believed it could get what it wanted economically and with intimidation (see Hong Kong) in the long term.

Russia using brute force exposed them to realizing that....well, a lot of their allies are morons.

https://www.stimson.org/2022/ukraine-did-china-have-a-clue/

What Russia is doing is not very different from what goes on in the middle east. Just that any intervention by the west is historically a big deal, and we've naturally covered a lot of ground in that particular area for 3 decades over the course of 3 wars.

Remember though that Trump sent missile strikes to Syria as a gesture. Putin knows Biden won't send any stingers into the unproven ground unless provoked.

The US has been shipping stingers and javelins into the country since before the shooting started. What are you talking about?

I'm talking about strategic military rebuffs against what Putin is doing. And what has Biden done as of lately?

As of yesterday, signing off on another $200 million in materiel support. Official state department propaganda: https://www.state.gov/200-million-in-new-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

[CharlesPhipps]

What Russia is doing is not very different from what goes on in the middle east. Just that any intervention by the west is historically a big deal, and we've naturally covered a lot of ground in that particular area for 3 decades over the course of 3 wars.

Remember though that Trump sent missile strikes to Syria as a gesture. Putin knows Biden won't send any stingers into the unproven ground unless provoked.

Um....dude, Biden has sent a SHIT TON more than stingers.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-and- ... tos-2022-3

[sayla0079]

Biden is doing it in a more subtle way also.

[BridgeConsoleMasher]

What Russia is doing is not very different from what goes on in the middle east. Just that any intervention by the west is historically a big deal, and we've naturally covered a lot of ground in that particular area for 3 decades over the course of 3 wars.

Remember though that Trump sent missile strikes to Syria as a gesture. Putin knows Biden won't send any stingers into the unproven ground unless provoked.

Um....dude, Biden has sent a SHIT TON more than stingers.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-and- ... tos-2022-3

Well yeah dude now. I haven't been paying attention for like 2 days. The conversation leading up to it thus far has amounted to "what's going on in Putin's mind to be doing this." He's doing what countries in the middle east try to do under our occupational nose all the time.

And if we had the same scope of presence in the caucus as we have in the middle east since 1992 then this wouldn't be going down the same way. I have heard people suggest that Putin is choosing to do this whole thing on Biden's watch because he knows a Republican wouldn't stand for it.

[McAvoy]

What Russia is doing is not very different from what goes on in the middle east. Just that any intervention by the west is historically a big deal, and we've naturally covered a lot of ground in that particular area for 3 decades over the course of 3 wars.

Remember though that Trump sent missile strikes to Syria as a gesture. Putin knows Biden won't send any stingers into the unproven ground unless provoked.

Um....dude, Biden has sent a SHIT TON more than stingers.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-and- ... tos-2022-3

Well yeah dude now. I haven't been paying attention for like 2 days. The conversation leading up to it thus far has amounted to "what's going on in Putin's mind to be doing this." He's doing what countries in the middle east try to do under our occupational nose all the time.

And if we had the same scope of presence in the caucus as we have in the middle east since 1992 then this wouldn't be going down the same way. I have heard people suggest that Putin is choosing to do this whole thing on Biden's watch because he knows a Republican wouldn't stand for it.

What would a Republican do differently? Obviously implying more would be done.

Do you think Putin would back away from what he may think as a bluff?

[CharlesPhipps]

Well yeah dude now. I haven't been paying attention for like 2 days. The conversation leading up to it thus far has amounted to "what's going on in Putin's mind to be doing this." He's doing what countries in the middle east try to do under our occupational nose all the time.

And if we had the same scope of presence in the caucus as we have in the middle east since 1992 then this wouldn't be going down the same way. I have heard people suggest that Putin is choosing to do this whole thing on Biden's watch because he knows a Republican wouldn't stand for it.

I feel that final line requires some analysis.

If by Republican, you mean the guy who ran against Biden, Donald J. Trump, then you would be wrong because Donald J. Trump withheld 400 million dollars in military equipment from the Ukraine due to the fact that they would not provide (nonexistent) dirt on President Joe Biden.

I feel like it was a million years ago but the reason the President was impeached the first time was due to the fact he was throwing the Ukraine under the bus in their war against Russia. Furthermore, numerous members of Trump's inner circle were sent to jail by Robert Mueller (A Republican) for the fact they were foreign assets of Russia and engaged in illegal activity on their behalf with Russian money.

(This is not speculation, they were found guilty by courts of law)

Now I know many Republicans who are very tough on Russia and if it were Romney as President, I have no doubt he'd be doing the same thing or more than Biden, but the only thing changing from 2016 to 2020's Republican agenda (literally the only thing) was weakening the support of Ukraine against Russian aggression.

I am not fond of Biden's response and feel like fear of WW3 is allowing Russia to commit mass atrocities and collapse a nuclear power into a disaster zone but the Republican government was clearly compromised by Putin and friendlier as a party due to years of cultivating a relationship with them.

[CharlesPhipps]

What would a Republican do differently? Obviously implying more would be done.

Do you think Putin would back away from what he may think as a bluff?

Given the Republicans acquitted Trump for withholding military aid from Ukraine, does anyone actually think "A Republican would do better" isn't a BIZARRE idea?

[McAvoy]

Well yeah dude now. I haven't been paying attention for like 2 days. The conversation leading up to it thus far has amounted to "what's going on in Putin's mind to be doing this." He's doing what countries in the middle east try to do under our occupational nose all the time.

And if we had the same scope of presence in the caucus as we have in the middle east since 1992 then this wouldn't be going down the same way. I have heard people suggest that Putin is choosing to do this whole thing on Biden's watch because he knows a Republican wouldn't stand for it.

I feel that final line requires some analysis.

If by Republican, you mean the guy who ran against Biden, Donald J. Trump, then you would be wrong because Donald J. Trump withheld 400 million dollars in military equipment from the Ukraine due to the fact that they would not provide (nonexistent) dirt on President Joe Biden.

I feel like it was a million years ago but the reason the President was impeached the first time was due to the fact he was throwing the Ukraine under the bus in their war against Russia. Furthermore, numerous members of Trump's inner circle were sent to jail by Robert Mueller (A Republican) for the fact they were foreign assets of Russia and engaged in illegal activity on their behalf with Russian money.

(This is not speculation, they were found guilty by courts of law)

Now I know many Republicans who are very tough on Russia and if it were Romney as President, I have no doubt he'd be doing the same thing or more than Biden, but the only thing changing from 2016 to 2020's Republican agenda (literally the only thing) was weakening the support of Ukraine against Russian aggression.

I am not fond of Biden's response and feel like fear of WW3 is allowing Russia to commit mass atrocities and collapse a nuclear power into a disaster zone but the Republican government was clearly compromised by Putin and friendlier as a party due to years of cultivating a relationship with them.

It actually amuses me how many forgot this already.

Trump fans obviously will do that mental gymnastics to figure out how to justify it all.

What would Trump do if he was president?

I am willing to bet he would have done nothing at least at first. Political pressure from within and other countries probably would have forced him to some token action.

Would that have been better?

[phantom000]

What would a Republican do differently? Obviously implying more would be done.

Do you think Putin would back away from what he may think as a bluff?

Given the Republicans acquitted Trump for withholding military aid from Ukraine, does anyone actually think "A Republican would do better" isn't a BIZARRE idea?

Given Trump's response to the COVID crisis it certainly does not give me any sense of confidence that he could do any better. Say what you will, at least Biden can act like a President.