Moore finds one of the few live wires left in American politics...

[LittleRaven]

And boy do they hurt.

Republican Roy Moore is trailing Democrat Doug Jones by 12 points in the Alabama special Senate election, according to a poll conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee after five women accused Moore of pursuing them as teenagers.

Jones led Moore 51 to 39 percent, according to the survey taken Sunday and Monday. The NRSC withdrew its support for Moore after the Washington Post published the first allegations against Moore on Thursday, and the group’s chairman, Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) said Moore should be expelled from the Senate if he wins on Dec. 12.

The poll shows a dramatic turn against Moore in Alabama: In early October, a committee poll had him leading by 16 points, and a survey early this month had him up by 9 points. Moore’s favorability numbers also tanked, from 49 percent in early October to 35 percent in the NRSC’s latest poll.

Several sources who reviewed the poll results said it also tested how Attorney General Jeff Sessions would fare as a write-in candidate, and the results were not favorable. Sessions held the seat for two decades before he joined the Trump administration, and he has been floated as a potential write-in candidate.

If the Democrats could pick up an Alabama senate seat...that would be BIG. It's probably not enough to flip the senate in 2018...the math for that election still looks very bad, but it will make Republican attempts to move legislation even more difficult than they already are.

[The Romulan Republic]

If the Democrats can take a Senate seat in fucking Alabama, then anything is on the table as far as I'm concerned.

Granted, they probably won't be running against child molesters for all those seats, but they will be running against a party which can't seem to make up its mind on weather it condones child molesters.

[LittleRaven]

Any given Thursday, sure.

But holy crap would we need one hell of a Thursday. I mean, there just aren't very many Republican seats up for grabs, and those that are look awfully safe.

• We have Flake's seat in Arizona. Maybe? I dunno. Arizona is pretty solidly red, and generally crazy to boot. I don't know how Arizona election law works...will McCain's seat be up for grabs if his cancer gets to him in the next year, or is appointed? Still Arizona either way, though.
• Dean Heller from Nevada. All the smart people think he's the Democrat's best shot, but I don't personally know much about it.
• Ted Cruz from Texas. I have zero hope that this seat goes blue. It's possible, though not likely, that Cruz loses a primary, but the seat itself will stay Republican. We ARE turning purple...but we're not that purple yet.
• Roger Wicker from Mississippi. Yeah he's not going anywhere.
• Deb Fischer from Nebraska. Also safe.
• Orrin Hatch from Utah. The only way he's leaving is in a box, and the seat will stay red regardless.
• John Barrasso from Wyoming. I don't know anything about this race. Maybe?
• Bob Corker from Tennessee. Now he's retiring, so no incumbency advantages. But it's Tennessee! Seems unlikely to go blue.

Assuming we get Moore's seat, we still need 2 more to flip the Senate, since Pence gets to play tiebreaker. And we have to defend some tricky races, like Claire McCaskill and Joe Donnelly.

It's not impossible. But I still don't like the odds.

[The Romulan Republic]

I'll be interested to see, with some of the more "moderate" (by Republican standards, anyway) Senators who have worked to contain Trump retiring or likely nearing the end of their life (Flake, Corker, McCain, weather their seats could go blue, or weather the Trumpers will manage to take those seats.

Arizona and Nevada sound like the best bets, yeah.

[Archanubis]

...there just aren't very many Republican seats up for grabs, and those that are look awfully safe.

While I hate to use a single state as an example as a "bellwether," the results of Virginia's election might be an indicator of how things may lean next year. After all, up until the election itself, no one expected the Democrats to take as large a bite out of what was considered the Republicans' "ironclad" control of the General Assembly as they did; even Gov. McAuliffe was saying that picking up 6-8 would be considered a victory for the Democrats. They picked up 15 out of 17 they need to take control - and there are at least two more elections that are considered "too close to call." The results may not tip the balance in the Assembly to the Dems' favor, but I would say just taking as many seats as they did should be considered a victory. So anything's possible next year.

As for the Alabama Senate race - well, I ain't making any plans for a Roy Moore defeat just yet. After all, Trump was also accused of sexual harassment last year (including, possibly, one case involving a minor - can't find the article), and yet, still won the 2016 election.

[The Romulan Republic]

Basically every seat that's flipped in the last year has been Republican to Democrat. Hell, I just read a headline about a lesbian woman in an interracial relationship, running for the Dems. picking up a seat in the Oklahoma legislature, in a place that went to Trump by 40 points. No, I'm not making that.

I would warn against overconfidence (I think that's part of why we lost last time)- its not over until its over and everybody needs to get out and donate, volunteer, and vote. But I do feel some optimism about our chances, even competing in a system the Republicans have rigged in their favour.

Really, I think that if last year should have taught us anything, its that its foolish to take any electoral outcome for granted. There is no such thing as a sure win, or a safe seat. Surprises happen. Polls can be wrong. So keep your hopes up but don't get complacent.

[Antiboyscout]

Can anyone say what the Democratic platform is other than "oppose Trump"?
If you can't then they have no hope.
The Democratic party did not transition into an opposition party well.

[The Romulan Republic]

Can anyone say what that has to do with this topic?

Also, you respond to a post about sweeping Democratic gains with "They just oppose Trump, they have no hope."

Um, I think opposing Trump (and supporting minority and womens' rights and the protection of Social Security, Medicaid, and health care, among other things) is working just fine for us so far, thanks. You desperate denial notwithstanding.

[LittleRaven]

Can anyone say what the Democratic platform is other than "oppose Trump"?

Uh...that's all they NEED to be. That's all an opposition party has to do. It worked great for the Republicans, it's working great for the Democrats.

Opposing is easy. Governing is hard, as the Republicans are learning.

[Antiboyscout]

Desperate denial? what happened to don't get over confident?