The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[CharlesPhipps]

What's this about China coming out ahead?

Putin is seeking Chinese material aid to prop up its economy and defeat Ukraine, which could result in China becoming defacto rulers of the Russian Federation.

A reversal of Mao's subservience to Stalin.

[Madner Kami]

Russia needs stuff. Stuff that can only be delivered from the outside world and with the West not being willing to trade, China is the only remaining major player who can deliver anything, even if it's stuff that's behind the curve. China however, will not accept Rubles as payment, because that shit's worthless and with Russia nationalizing pretty much every business now, Russia is primed for giving away mining concessions, function as a cheap refinery for Chinese industries and so on.

[CharlesPhipps]

Russia needs stuff. Stuff that can only be delivered from the outside world and with the West not being willing to trade, China is the only remaining major player who can deliver anything, even if it's stuff that's behind the curve. China however, will not accept Rubles as payment, because that shit's worthless and with Russia nationalizing pretty much every business now, Russia is primed for giving away mining concessions, function as a cheap refinery for Chinese industries and so on.

Yes, its a spectacularly bad deal but Putin thinks Ukraine is worth destroying his nation.

[clearspira]

China is infamous for taking debt as collateral. They do this a LOT in S.America and Africa where they will build a road with terms in the contract that say if the country in question defaults on the payments then the road and everything around it is theirs.
Seriously, Google just how much land China owns thanks to these shady contracts.

Russia is screwed. Relying on China is like relying on Davros.

[clearspira]

Also, in my personal opinion, the Ukraine crisis will be to Russia what the Suez crisis was to the British Empire. It'll be that moment everyone looks back on as the beginning of the end for the old order.

I reckon what will happen in Russia will be similar to Britain actually. Give it 30 years for the old men to die off and we'll have a different country.

[TGLS]

China is infamous for taking debt as collateral. They do this a LOT in S.America and Africa where they will build a road with terms in the contract that say if the country in question defaults on the payments then the road and everything around it is theirs.

And if they try to pull that in Russia I think there's a meaningful chance Russia tells them to get fucked and repudiates the debt. China lacks leverage; only about 3% of Russia's trade is with China, and they can't do gunboat diplomacy as long as Russia has nuclear bombs.

I reckon what will happen in Russia will be similar to Britain actually. Give it 30 years for the old men to die off and we'll have a different country.

In 30 years Russia's going to be down 11 million people while most other countries grew even more populous. By demographics, they're finished.

[phantom000]

Meanwhile, China is trying to play mediator between Russia and the West in an effort to maintain it's economic and political relationships to both sides.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-official- ... 35197.html

China stands to be the real winner if it plays its cards right, although uttering any opinion on the matter either way is politically awkward (can't either be seen to support the West or to back attacking sovereign nations).

What's this about China coming out ahead?

Considering their position with Russia and the NATO countries China brokering some kind of peace settlement is not impossible. If that were did happen it certainly would not hurt their position on the global stage.

So yeah, China could come out ahead both diplomatically and financially, depending on how they handle the situation.

[CharlesPhipps]

And if they try to pull that in Russia I think there's a meaningful chance Russia tells them to get fucked and repudiates the debt. China lacks leverage; only about 3% of Russia's trade is with China, and they can't do gunboat diplomacy as long as Russia has nuclear bombs.

Basically, the problem is that Russia is rapidly losing all credibility in every avenue.

[Riedquat]

Meanwhile, China is trying to play mediator between Russia and the West in an effort to maintain it's economic and political relationships to both sides.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-official- ... 35197.html

China stands to be the real winner if it plays its cards right, although uttering any opinion on the matter either way is politically awkward (can't either be seen to support the West or to back attacking sovereign nations).

What's this about China coming out ahead?

Considering their position with Russia and the NATO countries China brokering some kind of peace settlement is not impossible. If that were did happen it certainly would not hurt their position on the global stage.

So yeah, China could come out ahead both diplomatically and financially, depending on how they handle the situation.

That's exactly what I was getting at. China will gain a lot of political capital with the world if they can broker peace and avoid a vast disaster (and China's mostly interested in stability). They're in a good position to do so too, since they've got no love for the West but nothing to gain by the war carrying on and getting worse. We know unfortunately that we'll turn a bit more of a blind eye to abuses if it's convenient for us. And the economic points have been covered well enough. The only awkward part for China is that it won't want to be seen supporting the West against Russia at all, which explains most of what little China's said so far.

Although it's a country quite willing to get up to thoroughly obnoxious behaviour I get the impression that China is also pretty pragmatic; certainly far more so than Russia.

[hammerofglass]

The big problem with negotiation is: who would be fool enough to expect Putin to honor any agreement? Declaring ceasefires just so they can immediately break them is a standard doctrine for his forces.