The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[TGLS]

Well yeah. That's what happens when you have pitched battles instead of periodic ambushes.

[BridgeConsoleMasher]

American and coalition military dead in the twenty years in Iraq and Afghanistan is about 9000, just for comparison closer to home.

Although that's not counting contractors or local allies, it's an order of magnitude more if you do.

According to this, the number as of 2019 for Afghanistan alone was around 7,000 inclusive of contractors who make the bulk of American casualties.

https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/cos ... n/military

[hammerofglass]

American and coalition military dead in the twenty years in Iraq and Afghanistan is about 9000, just for comparison closer to home.

Although that's not counting contractors or local allies, it's an order of magnitude more if you do.

According to this, the number as of 2019 for Afghanistan alone was around 7,000 inclusive of contractors who make the bulk of American casualties.

https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/cos ... n/military

Same source I used, should have cited it.

Warning, PDF: https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/fil ... 9.1.21.pdf

[phantom000]

Russian loses are estimated to be between 7,000 and 15,000.

https://nypost.com/2022/03/23/nato-7000 ... n-ukraine/

The estimate is based on information gathered from many different sources, Ukrainian reports, US and NATO intelligence releases and some information from Russia, although the Russian sources are implied to be unofficial in nature and it's supposed to be killed, not captured or wounded.

Instead, Russian troops appear to be prioritizing the fight in the Donbas region, specifically in Luhansk and Donetsk, in what could be an effort to cut off Ukrainian troops and prevent them from moving west to defend other cities, the official said. The US also has seen activity from Russian ships in the Sea of Azov, including what appear to be efforts to send landing ships ashore with supplies, including vehicles, the official said.

Makes me wonder if the Russians actually have a plan or if its just officers on the ground reacting to the situation as it develops. Neither is necessarily an encouraging sign.

[Frustration]

Seems like kind of a Cylon-esque plan to me.

I wonder how many people in the Russian military hierarchy actually think this war is a good idea.

[Riedquat]

Seems like kind of a Cylon-esque plan to me.

I wonder how many people in the Russian military hierarchy actually think this war is a good idea.

Sounds like it was more or less sprung on them, them being kept in the dark about exactly what was supposed to happen, with a not unsurprising result. Another case of an authoritarian autocrat without military experience and who's incapable of hearing any opinions other than his own making an arse of a war.

It would be nice if the result is that the military regard Putin as the biggest threat, but I fear that may be wishful thinking.

[Draco Dracul]

Makes me wonder if the Russians actually have a plan or if its just officers on the ground reacting to the situation as it develops. Neither is necessarily an encouraging sign.

It's likely whatever plan they had went out the window when they didn't immediately meet their operational goals within the first few days.

[CharlesPhipps]

Everything seems to be related to the fact that the Russians fell prey to the problem of believing their own propaganda. Crimea more or less fell without firing a shot and had a large groundswell of Russian-speaking pro-Russian unification supporters.

However, Ukraine immediately started modernizing its army and begging Europe as well as the United States for advanced weapons to fight. A lot of which that they got as we saw with the 400 million dollar aid package that was held up by Trump and just one of the weapons systems.

There's also the fact that Ukraine has been drilling, preparing, and training as well as engaged in active combat missions for the past six years against the "Little Green Men" that Russia has been using mercenaries to fight with in the "Separatist" regions. 14K people have already been killed in what was never acknowledged as an active combat zone and civil war BEFORE the Russian invasion.

Putin failed to realize Ukraine had been already nationalized by the removal of the Pro-Russian Crimea as well as his earlier efforts. Plus, the fact that Ukraine's hatred of the USSR had been stewing for decades since Stalin as well as Chernobyl and they viewed Putin's ambitions as an extension of rebuilding it (which Putin would have admitted proudly).

So the Russians invaded with the assumption they would role over Ukraine's forces and be welcomed by at least a significant chunk of the population. What they found was a battle hardened modernized army that was united around the notion of driving off the Russian invaders. Also a population that utterly hated them and was willing to fight to the point HALF THE COUNTRY HAS LEFT and the other half is ready to fight to the man. This is some apocalyptic levels of lack of support for Russian collaboration.

It doesn't help the Russian military was supposed to be modernized by the massive amount of oil wealth but that was the primary place for embezzlement and grift. The Russian military was also primarily trained in Syria and, bluntly, that was less war than war crimes. Throw in the fact the Russian military seems to have not actually assumed this war would happen and you have the primary problem.

If the 15K dead figure is correct, this is absolute catastrophically not just for the Russian military but Russian Federation as a whole. It also means Ukraine may have accidentally made things worse because "the worst war since WW2" is entirely possible to be the case within a few weeks and Russia backing down becomes far less likely as surrendering to Ukraine is an impossibility for their global position.

[McAvoy]

Well I think this might be indication that we have grossly overestimated Russia to be a real threat to the US or even to a United Europe (without nukes of course).

It reminds me of a story that when the Soviet Union that a former Soviet General and a US general were talking. The US General said that the US could run over the Soviets and the Soviet ambassador said the US General was correct as half of the nuclear missile sites weren't even powered.

[CharlesPhipps]

Well I think this might be indication that we have grossly overestimated Russia to be a real threat to the US or even to a United Europe (without nukes of course).

It reminds me of a story that when the Soviet Union that a former Soviet General and a US general were talking. The US General said that the US could run over the Soviets and the Soviet ambassador said the US General was correct as half of the nuclear missile sites weren't even powered.

I mean it's what sort of threat you want to say. The Russians were paying the Taliban and giving them weapons to kill American soldiers. They became a force that supplied Assad and propped him up as a puppet. They could destroy the world if they wanted.

But no, they are no threat as a conventional military force to fully armed Western nations.