The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Draco Dracul]

Putin failed to realize Ukraine had been already nationalized by the removal of the Pro-Russian Crimea as well as his earlier efforts. Plus, the fact that Ukraine's hatred of the USSR had been stewing for decades since Stalin as well as Chernobyl and they viewed Putin's ambitions as an extension of rebuilding it (which Putin would have admitted proudly).

While I think your analysis over is very good I think that this part is incorrect. The people of Ukraine, just like the people of every Republic of the USSR that did not boycott the referendum, voted overwhelmingly for the continued existence of the USSR. This was most likely because they, correctly, saw that a divided USSR would be far easier to loot than one that stayed united.

Putin was put into power by the very people that dissolved the USSR in coup, and if anything Putin sees himself as a restorer of the Russian empire not as a rebuilder of the USSR. In fact his entire reasoning for the invasion is based on a total rejection of the USSR as under Lenin Ukraine was made separate from Russia.

I mean it's what sort of threat you want to say. The Russians were paying the Taliban and giving them weapons to kill American soldiers. They became a force that supplied Assad and propped him up as a puppet. They could destroy the world if they wanted.

But no, they are no threat as a conventional military force to fully armed Western nations.

It honestly wouldn't surprise me if this is the case for every major power in the world right now as pretty much every military is geared towards fighting significantly weaker opponents and wringing money out of the public.

[CmdrKing]

I would guess that to someone like Putin, the USSR was simply a different expression of Russia’s ‘natural’ state as an Empire. And at some level that’s true, certainly what we understand as the USSR and its ‘traditional’ boarders was formed under Stalin who was just as nakedly an empire builder as Putin.

(It’s dubious that the Soviets before or after Stalin ever truly managed to be something other than “the Russian Empire under new management”, but they certainly seemed to be trying for something more ideologically driven than raw imperial might, and that’s worth remembering in context of someone like Putin who’s anything but.)

[Riedquat]

It honestly wouldn't surprise me if this is the case for every major power in the world right now as pretty much every military is geared towards fighting significantly weaker opponents and wringing money out of the public.

I'm not entirely sure about that - part of the criticism in recent decades has been building equipment for fighting wars against advanced militaries rather than dealing with the types of problems encountered in places like Afghanistan.

However what just about all wars have demonstrated is that even if you can defeat a military force you can't hold a country against a population who doesn't want you there.

[Riedquat]

If the 15K dead figure is correct, this is absolute catastrophically not just for the Russian military but Russian Federation as a whole. It also means Ukraine may have accidentally made things worse because "the worst war since WW2" is entirely possible to be the case within a few weeks and Russia backing down becomes far less likely as surrendering to Ukraine is an impossibility for their global position.

More likely Russia retreats to the Eastern areas it probably can take and hold and claim that was their plan all along, and with neither side able to do anything at that point a peace treaty is signed. Putin spouts his nonsense about how "victory" has been achieved with that and Russia's shot itself in the foot for being able to be a threat again in his lifetime.

Although that does require a bit more self-control than is evident in the Kremlin; there's still the risk of him losing his rag and doing something phenominally stupid, irresponsible, and abhorrent.

[hammerofglass]

With the siege forces around Kyiv getting encircled and the Russion logistics and morale in tatters even holding those border regions is looking pretty unlikely.

[BridgeConsoleMasher]

With the siege forces around Kyiv getting encircled and the Russion logistics and morale in tatters even holding those border regions is looking pretty unlikely.

Guys Guys, Putin is not like a complete moron. I'm just guessing. I have a feeling he did not open up Russia's stomach to show the world its own gut on the table.

[CmdrKing]

A possibility, but it’s worth keeping in mind that would depend a lot on just how true those regions being Russo-leaning really is. Chasing an invading army out of your country is a lot different from pushing that army and their local allies out of the region when that populous supports both.

[hammerofglass]

With the siege forces around Kyiv getting encircled and the Russion logistics and morale in tatters even holding those border regions is looking pretty unlikely.

Guys Guys, Putin is not like a complete moron. I'm just guessing. I have a feeling he did not open up Russia's stomach to show the world its own gut on the table.

Honestly at this point I think he's been believing his own lies and is so high on his own supply that he has no idea what's happening.

[CharlesPhipps]

More likely Russia retreats to the Eastern areas it probably can take and hold and claim that was their plan all along, and with neither side able to do anything at that point a peace treaty is signed. Putin spouts his nonsense about how "victory" has been achieved with that and Russia's shot itself in the foot for being able to be a threat again in his lifetime.

Although that does require a bit more self-control than is evident in the Kremlin; there's still the risk of him losing his rag and doing something phenominally stupid, irresponsible, and abhorrent.

That would have been the sensible thing to do at the start but he's continuing to press into the rest of Ukraine with no success, huge losses, and massive civilian death.

Guys Guys, Putin is not like a complete moron. I'm just guessing. I have a feeling he did not open up Russia's stomach to show the world its own gut on the table.

While Putin's skill at manipulating politics is something that was impressive up until this point, one should note the truism of war: you only have to make one mistake. In this case, he doesn't want to retreat as a matter of pride.

A possibility, but it’s worth keeping in mind that would depend a lot on just how true those regions being Russo-leaning really is. Chasing an invading army out of your country is a lot different from pushing that army and their local allies out of the region when that populous supports both.

There's reports also the Russian language part of the country has also been...reevaluating their previous support.

[phantom000]

A possibility, but it’s worth keeping in mind that would depend a lot on just how true those regions being Russo-leaning really is. Chasing an invading army out of your country is a lot different from pushing that army and their local allies out of the region when that populous supports both.

That is why the US did not invade Iraq during the First Gulf War. Pushing the Iraqi army out of Kuwait was one thing, but fighting them on their own soil was something else again.

Assuming there is still a lot of Pro-Russian sentiment in Crimea and they pulled everything back they could probably hold out indefinitely against the Ukrainians.