The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[CmdrKing]

But seriously, let's be clear: I ain't arguing that Ukraine should stop killing Russian soldiers, dead Russian soldiers is the least tragic thing happening in this war. what I am saying is odds are, most of those kids are there under a mix of legal, economic, and deadly coercion, and we don't (moreso *can't*) know how many of them are actually participating in war crimes.

More than that, killing hundreds of thousands of soldiers (and that's what ending this through shedding Russian blood will involve, you realize?) takes a long ass time, during which no small number of civilians are gonna die everywhere, from economic sanctions, medical neglect, starvation (and not even just in Russia and Ukraine! They're the number 1 and 5 exporters of wheat in the world! Bread prices are gonna get bad, especially in places that already suffer food insecurity!), so forth.

Like, why the fuck get geared up for bloodshed here? To what end?

[Riedquat]

It’s frustrating because the best thing is to end hostilities as bloodlessly and swiftly as possible, but given how little Putin’s word is worth, the only routes to this are a praetorian guard moment or sending so many conscripts back to Russia in a closed casket state that Russia is logistically unable to prosecute the war any further. And I see no reason to trust in the former at this stage.

This war is frustrating for people who want to think of war as something with no good guys or bad guys and we all share a basic humanity. The Russians have invaded with no real justification, commit atrocities left and right, and have shown their goals are nothing less than the destruction of Ukrainian identity. We've even hit the "mass rape" bingo of just pure fucking evil.

What is that old saying? History is mostly black and gray but sometimes it really is just black and white?

It's sickening, and it's also frightening, because it makes it bloody hard to see a way to negotiate an end to this - who on earth would want to negotiate anything with a country that behaves like that? Yet without that the war carries on for even longer, even worse things happen, and there's a real risk of global catastrophe.

The only way I can see a least bad (but still bad) end is if Russia has too hard a job in carrying on that it's in no position to try anything again whilst that vile excuse of a man is still in charge, but he doesn't end up in a position where he's desperate and starts lashing out with things like tactical nukes. And getting to that point will leave atrocities unanswered, something any decent person will find hard to stomach.

[CharlesPhipps]

But seriously, let's be clear: I ain't arguing that Ukraine should stop killing Russian soldiers, dead Russian soldiers is the least tragic thing happening in this war. what I am saying is odds are, most of those kids are there under a mix of legal, economic, and deadly coercion, and we don't (moreso *can't*) know how many of them are actually participating in war crimes.

Mind you, as much as they are victims in this, there's no reason to assume conscripts aren't committing war crimes. Historically, when you're thrown into a miserable and insane situation, that anger can and is lashed out. Discipline breaks down quickly when you're not trained and morale is low and supplies are scarce.

Doubly so if you're told the enemy is a bunch of monsters like their Nazi claims are.

[Madner Kami]

Bucha wasn't done by some conscripts. We know who was occupying that general area. It was OMON (russian short for "Special Purpose Mobile Unit"), a paramilitary "police force", two units of Kadyrovite Chechens (they're terror units and, this is no joke as intercepted russian communication proves, their job isn't "just" to terrorize the Ukrainians, but "guide retreating forces back to the frontline") and the 64th Motor Rifle Brigade (about half the soldiers of this unit are known by name by now). No conscripts involved, only professional soldiers and... well, governmental "police" and terror forces.

Don't make the mistake of going "poor people pressed into service". There are such people there. But they're not the majority. Not by a long shot.

Which reminds me... Mariupol. The last remaining defenders sent their last goodbyes via Twitter today.

The last Ukrainian soldiers defending Mariupol said they were “running out of ammunition” on Monday and expected to be killed or taken prisoner very soon by Russian forces surrounding the city.

Writing on Facebook, the 36th brigade said its 47-day defence of Mariupol was coming to a tragic conclusion.

“We were bombed from airplanes and shot at by artillery and tanks. We have been doing everything possible and impossible. But any resource has the potential to run out,” it said.

Russian troops have been besieging the city on the Sea of Azov since the beginning of March. The territory controlled by Ukrainian forces has gradually shrunk to a few central areas. The surviving marines are now holed up in the Azovstal iron and steelworks next to the port.
A Ukrainian service member guards his position in Mariupol.
Why is Mariupol so important to Russian forces?
Read more

“The enemy gradually pushed us back. They surrounded us with fire, and are now trying to destroy us,” the marines posted. The “mountain of wounded” amounted to nearly half of the brigade, they added, with those “whose limbs are not torn off” continuing to fight.

Their infantry soldiers had all been killed. The “shootings battles” against the Russians were now being conducted by artillerymen and anti-aircraft gunners, as well as radio operators, drivers and cooks. Even musicians from the orchestra were fighting, they said.

[...]

Last thing I read was, that they're caged into a steel work's hall and can neither escape nor resupply.

Mariupol was under siege for 47 days. Repeatedly, ukrainian resupply somehow managed to get through the russian siege circle and, as was just a few days ago acknowlegded, the ukrainians repeatedly managed to supply the city via air drop. A daring flight of Mi-8 helicopters flew around the city at rooftop level in an area where russian air defence was, for whatever reason, non-existant and entered the city from the sea-side, landing, dropping supplies and evacuating wounded soldiers.

Either way. Mariupol was home to nearly 450,000 people, some of those fled early on before the siege began (~100,000), others escaped through "safety corridors" (which were naturally repeatedly shelled, except, miraculously, for the corridor that lead the fleeing inhabitants towards russian territory, through which about 30,000 people "escaped"). The city was defended by about 5,000 soldiers (roughly 800 of those were Asovs). This is what the city looked like just two days ago:


youtu.be/uyvjMNKxh44

It is unknown, how many of the roughly 14,000 russian soldiers lost their lives or their limbs in that siege. At least 5,000 inhabitants are known to have been killed. Nobody knows how many actually managed to escape during the siege or survive in this hellscape.

[CharlesPhipps]

It's sickening, and it's also frightening, because it makes it bloody hard to see a way to negotiate an end to this - who on earth would want to negotiate anything with a country that behaves like that? Yet without that the war carries on for even longer, even worse things happen, and there's a real risk of global catastrophe.

Yes, it's almost a parody of negotiation and understanding in the kinds of shows we watch here. It turns out, in real life, that a lot of parties AREN'T misunderstood but people who just intend to murder however many people they need to in order to get waht they want. Also, when you negotiate with them, they just end up betraying it the moment they think they have the advantage.

The only way I can see a least bad (but still bad) end is if Russia has too hard a job in carrying on that it's in no position to try anything again whilst that vile excuse of a man is still in charge, but he doesn't end up in a position where he's desperate and starts lashing out with things like tactical nukes. And getting to that point will leave atrocities unanswered, something any decent person will find hard to stomach.

Yes, all of the acceptable options all seem to boil down to, "Russia suddenly stops being evil and values the loss of life its causing among its own troops and abandons its evil ambitions."

[Fuzzy Necromancer]

fuck man, we'd need Sailor Moon to sort that shit out

[Riedquat]

The only way I can see a least bad (but still bad) end is if Russia has too hard a job in carrying on that it's in no position to try anything again whilst that vile excuse of a man is still in charge, but he doesn't end up in a position where he's desperate and starts lashing out with things like tactical nukes. And getting to that point will leave atrocities unanswered, something any decent person will find hard to stomach.

Yes, all of the acceptable options all seem to boil down to, "Russia suddenly stops being evil and values the loss of life its causing among its own troops and abandons its evil ambitions."

To be honest that's usually how the world's been. It's certainly not the first time a power-mad nutter has attacked somewhere, committing atrocities along the way, and everyone else has been forced to deal with them, and not always because they conveniently died or were attacked back (attacking back isn't a viable option with Russia anyway); throughout history people have done terrible things and got away with it, and this isn't really any different.

"Least bad" is normally the best that can ever be hoped for, alas. If there's any justice too that'll only come in the long term.

[CmdrKing]

Bucha wasn't done by some conscripts. We know who was occupying that general area. It was OMON (russian short for "Special Purpose Mobile Unit"), a paramilitary "police force", two units of Kadyrovite Chechens (they're terror units and, this is no joke as intercepted russian communication proves, their job isn't "just" to terrorize the Ukrainians, but "guide retreating forces back to the frontline") and the 64th Motor Rifle Brigade (about half the soldiers of this unit are known by name by now). No conscripts involved, only professional soldiers and... well, governmental "police" and terror forces.

Don't make the mistake of going "poor people pressed into service". There are such people there. But they're not the majority. Not by a long shot.

Ah, apologies, by “there” I mean Ukraine in general, not Bucha specifically. My working assumption is simply that most of the Russian casualties will be conscripts, given that inexperienced people fuck up more and Russia has a long history of sending conscripts into meat grinders.

That intel can confirm specific units who are doing the majority of war crimes, and those units being overwhelmingly professional soldiers and specialists in terror campaigns, more or less meets my expectation here: it’s not the kids who didn’t sign up for this doing the worst aspects of the war. So yeah if your position is “kill them all” for those guys, that makes sense, I certainly can’t envision an outcome to this war where Russia willingly sends any survivors to stand trial for these crimes, so justice on the battlefield is the only option available.
But that’s not the same as wishing maximum death upon all Russians, be they soldiers, conscripts, or civilians, and a lot of rhetoric is edging very close to that rather than acknowledging how relatively few Russians both understand what this is and want anything to do with it.

Like, a lot of people saying this shit are Americans, and boy howdy do I have bad news about American wartime conduct in the 21st century if you wanna cast that stone y’know?

[CharlesPhipps]

The massacre at Bucha was professional soldiers and certain Russian "private military contractors" have specific profiles in atrocities.

However, other atrocities are being committed by conscripts like the sexual assaults.

[CmdrKing]

Uh yeah, that’s how war works. Soldiers, to one degree or another, engage in sexual assault.
Unless you mean these are systematic measures deliberately done at scale as a campaign of terror?

Like, again, my position here is “kill however many Russians is needed to force their full and complete retreat from Ukraine’s pre-2014 boarders. I find the size of this number frustrating but it is, from the evidence we’ve seen, what is necessary”

As best I can tell your position is “kill Russia to the last man” and I am just not seeing how you’ve reached this position except by painful naïveté about how wars have functioned in the 21st century and the length, consequence, and aftermath of such a campaign.