The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Madner Kami]

And there we have it. The first picture of the burning Moskva finally made it to the internet:



For comparison, this is what a Slava-class normally looks like from roughly that angle:



The tweet linked above nicely analyzes the situation. In short, the ship was hit amidships by missiles and given the location of the impact, either blew up parts of the main cruise missile battery or the anti-submarine ammunition storage, possibly damaging the main engineering section, resulting in catastrophical damage. Whether a fire happened before the ammunition explosion or vice versa is hard to tell, but it is raging on and widespread, given the scorch-marks. The main-radar and the CIWS-AA are not pointing in the same direction, which supports the Ukrainian story of distracting the radar via a drone, to strike with missiles from the opposing side (it's unclear, whether russian CIWS have their own indipendent radar, like the western systems, but mid or long range interception is off the table without the main radar one way or another and using CIWS is a last ditch-effort to be used if every other defensive layer was broken).
At least the rear-ward life rafts and boats are missing (possibly deployed, as indicated by the extended crane, but you never know with russian corruption...) and the hangar door is wide open so at least some of the crew made it off. The ship appears to be completely left to it's devices. Oh and the sea is as smooth as a wrinkly baby's arse, no storm or bad weather in sight. Russian propaganda at it's finest.

But wait, it gets better (treat as unverified). Apparently some "evacuated" sailors managed to finally phone home and some of their mothers shared their story. One son reports of several dead and badly injured sailors, as well as the ship having been hit by three missiles (I'd argue it was two hits and the third "impact" was the on-board ammunition blowing up, as Kyiv only reports two missiles having been fired or having hit). At least 40 are dead (including the captain), about 30 missing, many of the survivors being short a limb (a Slava has roughly 500 crew). And, naturally, because this is Russia, a good portion of the sailors were conscripts which weren't supposed to be in a warzone as per russian law and promised by Putler.

[Frustration]

Putler... I like that.

(Well, I mean, I don't, but you know...)

[phantom000]

The Russians have started their offensive in Eastern Ukraine.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... uxbndlbing

I guess this is The Ukraine War: Part 2 or part 3, depending on how you count.

[BridgeConsoleMasher]

I guess this is The Ukraine War: Part 2 or part 3, depending on how you count.

I've been pondering about what makes this distinctive, myself.

[phantom000]

I guess this is The Ukraine War: Part 2 or part 3, depending on how you count.

I've been pondering about what makes this distinctive, myself.

I should have said "The Ukraine War of 2022" or "The Russian Invasion of 2022" or something.

When the Russians withdrew from Kyiv it seems to their first big set back to their strategic plans. I mean the southern and eastern fronts keep moving back and forth but the northern front seems to have nearly collapsed with the Russians not even trying to maintain some kind of presence on the ground. Even if they had given up trying to capture Kyiv they might maintain some kind of foothold in the region if only to keep the Ukrainians off-balance.

Things seem to have slowed down, on the strategic level at least, as Russians were preparing for their next offensive and the Ukrainians were trying to consolidate their position. Russians might have abandoned their initial invasion plan and are now going with some kind of contingency, or maybe they are just making it all up as they go. Either way, it feels like a new phase of the conflict.

[hammerofglass]

Strategically Russia's plans were in tatters within the first 72 hours. This was planned as a coup de main against an enemy that put up almost no resistance and that was over before anyone else could react.

[phantom000]

Strategically Russia's plans were in tatters within the first 72 hours. This was planned as a coup de main against an enemy that put up almost no resistance and that was over before anyone else could react.

That is what makes this scary. Normally, Ukraine's best option would be to dig in and try to drag the fighting out as long as they can so that the cost to Russia, in lives, supplies, equipment and money simply out weighs any potential benefit; make it where it's not worth their time anymore. The disturbing part is that Russia probably reached that point during the first week of the invasion but 8 weeks later and they still are not backing down. If Putin is willing to go this far for Ukraine, how much further might he go?

[CmdrKing]

The best explanation seems to be that Russia was huffing its own supply, and vastly underestimated Ukrainian resolve and the degree to which corruption had hobbled their own capabilities, and remained in denial of this for several weeks. What they’re doing now then would be trying to save face by achieving some lesser victory condition.

But the don’t seem to have addressed their underlying weaknesses, so while capturing and holding the Donbas would probably have been achievable had that been their primary goal from the outset, with the losses they’ve already suffered, Ukraine’s increases knowledge of their capabilities and weaknesses, and the high degree of NATO response they’ve triggered? Their prospects are less than certain, even if Putin did something foolish like try and call in reservists to overwhelm with numbers, which would take months and badly deplete their already questionable supplies.

[phantom000]

But the don’t seem to have addressed their underlying weaknesses, so while capturing and holding the Donbas would probably have been achievable had that been their primary goal from the outset, with the losses they’ve already suffered, Ukraine’s increases knowledge of their capabilities and weaknesses, and the high degree of NATO response they’ve triggered? Their prospects are less than certain, even if Putin did something foolish like try and call in reservists to overwhelm with numbers, which would take months and badly deplete their already questionable supplies.

There is supposed to be a strong Pro-Russian movement in Eastern Ukraine, a mix of Russian descendants from the Soviet Era and even some Ukrainians who 'just want the good old Soviet days back.' If they had focused on annexing those areas, moving troops to occupy but then stop and only fight Ukrainian forces if they are actively trying to push the Russians out I think NATO would be more hesitant to get involved right now. Not that NATO would be ignoring the situation, just that they would have less of an excuse to get involved.

[hammerofglass]

A rumor I've seen, and it's just a rumor but makes a good story, is that the reason that the whole intelligence department is being purged is that they were falsifying the information the plans were based around. So on paper there's all these pro-Russia partisan groups they've been clandestinely supplying with weapons and equipment for years and they're expected to be local support for operations like the paratrooper assault in Vasylkiv (explaining why those plans were so insanely optimistic), but in real life they don't exist and all that money for weapons and equipment disappeared into the agents' pockets.