The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[McAvoy]

Really?

A joke. Somewhat.

I doubt they make a uniform that size. So the material needed for that uniform probably could have made three uniforms.

The guy is going to have a heart attack from the stress of a war.

[hammerofglass]

The rate Russian generals are getting kia he won't have time.

[BridgeConsoleMasher]

Which is why I can't believe Putin actually thought through this war. If he really cared about the welfare of the Russian state, he would never have invaded.

Well when your country elects heads of your CIA/KGB what have you as your president then you tend to find them going extra with the conflicts.

[Riedquat]

Which is why I can't believe Putin actually thought through this war. If he really cared about the welfare of the Russian state, he would never have invaded.

Not mutually exclusive, although both statements appear to be right. Putin probably just views Russia as his own personal property and doesn't care for it beyond what it can do for him (he probably wants it powerful but just because that means he's powerful).

It's possible he did think through the war but his thoughts on it were completely and utterly wrong because he's not a general, not a professional soldier who knows what fighting a modern war involves. The odd bit though is completely misjudging the response in both Ukraine and the rest of the world. Someone professionally involved in intelligence shouldn't have made that collossal cock-up.

[CmdrKing]

As probably noted up thread, what scant evidence there is backs up the only explanation that makes a lick of sense: Putin and his generals were huffing their own supply and believed they would be welcomed as liberators in Kyiv. Supposedly their intelligence people had claimed for years they were arming and training partisan cells throughout Ukraine that just needed some elite backup to seize key areas the country and… that’s what they sent, along with columns of regular troops to discourage organized response from Ukrainian nationalists.

And as we learned elsewhere in the early days of the conflict, Russia’s military and intelligence apparatus had spent a lot of years filing false reports to line their own pockets and keep command happy enough not to ask questions, and were in no way prepared for Putin to need those reports to the *true*

[Thebestoftherest]

I do wonder what it will be like for both countries at the end of this mess

[CharlesPhipps]

Well when your country elects heads of your CIA/KGB what have you as your president then you tend to find them going extra with the conflicts.

Putin's goal since first coming to power was rebuilding the USSR and Russia as a superpower/empire. He doesn't care about actual communism and wanted to establish something like China. Ukraine's existence as an indepedent polity has always been a massive blow to the plan of rebuilding the former empire he envisions.

It was now or never.

[BridgeConsoleMasher]

Well when your country elects heads of your CIA/KGB what have you as your president then you tend to find them going extra with the conflicts.

Putin's goal since first coming to power was rebuilding the USSR and Russia as a superpower/empire. He doesn't care about actual communism and wanted to establish something like China. Ukraine's existence as an indepedent polity has always been a massive blow to the plan of rebuilding the former empire he envisions.

It was now or never.

Okay yes, I've established as much. Remember though that George HW Bush was head of CIA.

[Madner Kami]

I do wonder what it will be like for both countries at the end of this mess

Russia will be in economic ruins. China is teetering on the edge of socio-economic collapse already and it doesn't look good for them and thus can't really help Russia (neither do they actually want to, beyond their own benefit). India will remain as the only "ally" of Russia which can actually trade with the country in some capacity, so Russia will remain mostly in an economic decline, with a good chance of breaking apart at the end of it, as India doesn't care about Russia and is an unequal partner.

Ukraine's end position will entirely depend on whether they can get the Crimean Peninsula back or not. If not, they'll become a european backwater. If they do, they'll become a focal point of EU engagement. An interesting situation will happen, if Ukraine can free Cherson, but doesn't regain Crimea. This leaves Ukraine with a good, but threatened access to the Black Sea, while leaving it just outside of reach of the majority of the resources underneath the Black Sea. (In any of those cases, I predict that Ukraine will de facto ceede Donetzk and Luhansk to Russia, but keeps dibs on the land for later reference. Though this entirely relies on the question of whether Europe gets it's act together and enables Ukraine's advance or not with NATO-equipment. As it looks right now, I have my doubts about that.)

[clearspira]

I do wonder what it will be like for both countries at the end of this mess

Russia will be in economic ruins. China is teetering on the edge of socio-economic collapse already and it doesn't look good for them and thus can't really help Russia (neither do they actually want to, beyond their own benefit). India will remain as the only "ally" of Russia which can actually trade with the country in some capacity, so Russia will remain mostly in an economic decline, with a good chance of breaking apart at the end of it, as India doesn't care about Russia and is an unequal partner.

Ukraine's end position will entirely depend on whether they can get the Crimean Peninsula back or not. If not, they'll become a european backwater. If they do, they'll become a focal point of EU engagement. An interesting situation will happen, if Ukraine can free Cherson, but doesn't regain Crimea. This leaves Ukraine with a good, but threatened access to the Black Sea, while leaving it just outside of reach of the majority of the resources underneath the Black Sea. (In any of those cases, I predict that Ukraine will de facto ceede Donetzk and Luhansk to Russia, but keeps dibs on the land for later reference. Though this entirely relies on the question of whether Europe gets it's act together and enables Ukraine's advance or not with NATO-equipment. As it looks right now, I have my doubts about that.)

China is on the edge of collapse? That's... dubious. I've read more than a few analysts who think they are posed to overtake the US in GDP, especially once Green energy wipes out the petrodollar.