The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[CmdrKing]

It’s highly unlikely China will suffer complete economic collapse, but they don’t have to to have significant enough problems to be unable to wheel barrow money down the absolute fire pit that is the Russian economy in 6 months.

As I understand it, China’s been keeping their economy from suffering significant recession for the past 10 or more years with absolutely lavish spending on public infrastructure… and they’ve hit the point their tearing stuff down and rebuilding it without anyone actually using the building just to keep working. At some point in the unknown but foreseeable future that workaround will fail, at which point China will have to tighten its belt in terms of hopeless foreign projects like Russia.

[Madner Kami]

It’s highly unlikely China will suffer complete economic collapse, but they don’t have to to have significant enough problems to be unable to wheel barrow money down the absolute fire pit that is the Russian economy in 6 months.

As I understand it, China’s been keeping their economy from suffering significant recession for the past 10 or more years with absolutely lavish spending on public infrastructure… and they’ve hit the point their tearing stuff down and rebuilding it without anyone actually using the building just to keep working. At some point in the unknown but foreseeable future that workaround will fail, at which point China will have to tighten its belt in terms of hopeless foreign projects like Russia.

Correct. Their economy is a huge bubble mainly resting on infrastructure and housing projects which serve no purpose and are of the throw-away and build new in ten years type. They're literally building cities of skyscrapers in the middle of nowhere and even if they'd need those in the nearer future, those are cities modelled on the US-american layout, meaning there's no local infrastructure supporting an actual population, like not even supermarkets. This already applies to the outskirts of their populated cities, where you have the modern day equivalent of the commie-blocks being connected to the larger city by nothing but dirt-roads and everything has to be carried into those delapidated shelters by hand-carried bags on foot and the few people who actually do own cars.

Next thing is their imploding population. China's population is on the road to being halved within the this century. Now granted, it won't be anywhere near that bad, short of a large hunger catastrophe happening, but there's a good chance that their population will drop back down towards 1 billion within this century, with all that entails and implies. Also, the chinese private savings are largely investments into said housing projects. Everyone tries to own one or multiple appartements and thus it keeps the virtual demand high, while the actual demand is ever decreasing. The population going down while everybody tries to make money with a home in an environment where there are a lot of owner- or occupant-lacking housings normally doesn't end well.

And then there's the current trend of diversifaction and deglobalization which CoViD and Russia's invasion sparked. A whole lot of the western industries are in the process of simply vanishing from the chinese markets, while China fundamentally failed to build it's own scientific and industrial base, so nothing within China is going to fall naturally into the gaps left behind.

China's success and population's happyness is even more intrinsically built upon it's economic success, than is the case in most every other country. "The natives are getting restless", so to say and Xi's current policies offer no alternatives to solving or at least adressing the current troubles, other than: We keep doing what we did. All this is a recipe for disaster.

[CmdrKing]

China’s government can be pretty responsive when they acknowledge a problem, so I tend to think they’ll avoid the sort of absolute catastrophe that could turn into, but who knows when Xi will admit to that or step aside so new blood can lead new times.

Honestly just reminds me how great living in a world where all the major empires are being run by inflexible boomers with raging nostalgia boners for the Cold War is turning out. The fact Biden is somehow the *least* likely to drive straight into a tree refusing to notice all the warning signs of how bad things are getting is truly astonishing.

[Madner Kami]

And Xi is the exact problem in that equation. He was voted into place by the CCP, precisely because he is a hardliner who plows his way through the opposition. He was supposed to push through their now-famous 2025 plan (you know, the one that makes everybody freak out about Taiwan, as the deadline comes closer). But then CoViD happened and the russian invasion and everything went quite off course. Except Xi. He keeps steering his course and China remains in lockdown for the third year in a row, while the world has already moved on.

There's a split running through the CCP right now. On the one hand, you got the Xi-clique. On the other hand, you got the clique who put communism aside to reform China into what it was pre-Xi. It remains to be seen, which part will be put into power.

[clearspira]

And Xi is the exact problem in that equation. He was voted into place by the CCP, precisely because he is a hardliner who plows his way through the opposition. He was supposed to push through their now-famous 2025 plan (you know, the one that makes everybody freak out about Taiwan, as the deadline comes closer). But then CoViD happened and the russian invasion and everything went quite off course. Except Xi. He keeps steering his course and China remains in lockdown for the third year in a row, while the world has already moved on.

There's a split running through the CCP right now. On the one hand, you got the Xi-clique. On the other hand, you got the clique who put communism aside to reform China into what it was pre-Xi. It remains to be seen, which part will be put into power.

I smell the scent of some Putin-style purges coming.

[TGLS]

There's a split running through the CCP right now. On the one hand, you got the Xi-clique. On the other hand, you got the clique who put communism aside to reform China into what it was pre-Xi. It remains to be seen, which part will be put into power.

I don't think the split is "Communism Vs. Reforms" so much as it is that Xi brought things back to the "You lose, now I ruin you" days of Mao. Allowing enemies to retire gracefully was probably the biggest innovation of Deng Xiaoping. Reversing this is probably why Xi is probably only going to leave office in a bag.

[Madner Kami]

I don't think the split is "Communism Vs. Reforms"

If that's the takeaway, than I worded it badly or the reception was distorted. This conflict isn't between communism and reform. It's ultra-strong, ultra-centralized state with a stranglehold on the private sector except if it's a party-member vs slighlty less ultra-strong, ultra-centralized state with a firm hand in the private sector. The clique in conflict with Xi is the people who transfigured China into a state-capitalist economy. It's the guys who brought Nixon to China. Whereas Xi represents the Maoism of the 1950s, where it was mostly about removing all internal opposition and dissent. It's hard to put it into words, since this is like trying to distinguish anthracite and black.

[Frustration]

Well when your country elects heads of your CIA/KGB what have you as your president then you tend to find them going extra with the conflicts.

I've more or less resigned myself to world governments acting according to Realpolitik rather than nuanced ethics. But I DO expect them to do so successfully. This invasion has been almost an unqualified disaster for Russia, losing far, far more than it has gained.

[Frustration]

Correct. Their economy is a huge bubble mainly resting on infrastructure and housing projects which serve no purpose and are of the throw-away and build new in ten years type. They're literally building cities of skyscrapers in the middle of nowhere and even if they'd need those in the nearer future, those are cities modelled on the US-american layout, meaning there's no local infrastructure supporting an actual population, like not even supermarkets. This already applies to the outskirts of their populated cities, where you have the modern day equivalent of the commie-blocks being connected to the larger city by nothing but dirt-roads and everything has to be carried into those delapidated shelters by hand-carried bags on foot and the few people who actually do own cars.

And I don't understand why. Surely even those interesting in enriching themselves personally could do so by skimming off the top of projects that actually accomplished something useful for China. What's the point in expending money for, effectively, nothing at all? Why not just give the money to the contractors straight?

[Frustration]

So, Zelensky has said - as of about an hour ago - that Ukraine will not give up territory in exchange for peace with Russia.

So, what now?