The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Madner Kami]

They may not even need that, because once they join the EU, they'll be in a light version of NATO, as the EU-charta includes a mutual defense clause.

As for giving up territory, they'll fight tooth and nail not to and every indication hints at them succeeding, even if it may still be a long way there. As Perun pointed out quite correctly: They manage to have more men under arms than by now Russia and as long as the Free World keeps backing them up, they can function as a war-economy indefinitly and the fickle parts of Europe become ever more independent from russian dependencies with each passing day. Europe could face a hard winter, but by the same time next year, Europe will have made the great green leap forward, which it could have completed nearly ten years ago already.

[McAvoy]

They may not even need that, because once they join the EU, they'll be in a light version of NATO, as the EU-charta includes a mutual defense clause.

As for giving up territory, they'll fight tooth and nail not to and every indication hints at them succeeding, even if it may still be a long way there. As Perun pointed out quite correctly: They manage to have more men under arms than by now Russia and as long as the Free World keeps backing them up, they can function as a war-economy indefinitly and the fickle parts of Europe become ever more independent from russian dependencies with each passing day. Europe could face a hard winter, but by the same time next year, Europe will have made the great green leap forward, which it could have completed nearly ten years ago already.

I think the biggest test for the resolve to back Ukraine is winter. Now I am not really informed about how much or where Europe gets its oil, but from what I understand before all of this a large part of it came from Russia.

The US is pretty isolated from this. The US has its own supply, can get it from elsewhere. The US doesn't really rely on Russian oil. Only that sanctions on Russia may cause the oil price to increase.

That being said, Ukraine is a big country. The size of Texas. So alot of land to cover for both sides in traditional warfare.

Putin has made it clear he wants Ukraine. Not part of it. Even if he does accept part of it, he will invade again at some point.

Speaking of which, why countries didn't embrace nuke power more I will never know. I know about the politics involved. I know about the cost. But if you could make your country oil free more or less when it comes to the energy grid (ignoring cars of course) why not?

[Thebestoftherest]

That is fair. Does anyone wonder if Russia will still be a world power if they lose.

[McAvoy]

That is fair. Does anyone wonder if Russia will still be a world power if they lose.

They will. It's not like when they lose, the country gets dissolved or anything.

It's just that they are taken less seriously outside the nukes.

[clearspira]

The state of Ukraine after the recent counter-attacks.

Russia: proving that 20th century tactics do not work against 21st century weapons. All Ukraine needed to defend itself and push back was resolve and a healthy dose of Western tech. The world is laughing at Putin and his rusty old army - and that's probably not a good thing.

[Madner Kami]

The state of Ukraine after the recent counter-attacks.

Russia: proving that 20th century tactics do not work against 21st century weapons. All Ukraine needed to defend itself and push back was resolve and a healthy dose of Western tech. The world is laughing at Putin and his rusty old army - and that's probably not a good thing.

This map isn't even up to date. For example, the Ukrainians are standing in Lysychansk already again, the twin city on the other river-side of Sevierodonetsk, plus the entirety of Charkiv Oblast was abandoned.
In Kherson, the Ukrainians advanced along the coast of the Black Sea and apparently reached the Dnipro-river, meaning they're flanking the russian salient hard. Unconfirmed of most unconfirmed sources are talking of desertions and negotiations of a full surrender of the pocketed forces in Kherson. This is so exciting, because if true, it is the watershed moment the war has been waiting for. It would mean the end of the russian army, not just in Ukraine, but Russia proper. The repercussions of such a happening onto Russia proper are incalculable, plus it being the biggest military defeat (not necessarily by number, but by impact on the political situation at large) in modern history. This could very well mean the end of the Putin-regime. It's so hard not to talk of that all the time, as I wish so much for it to be true.

P.S.: As for Kherson, the Ukrainian MoD lets the world know, that they captured a few towns in Kherson:



Why is this relevant? Well...



If true, Ukraine is controlling significant traffic junctions in this area and thus disrupts any sort of fast and large russian troop-movements in this area. Furthermore, this implies that they're in the process of cutting the Kherson Salient into three parts. None of which can easily retreat, but two of which will have a really hard time when it comes to retreating over the Dniepro, as there are no bridges anymore which could even carry infantry in their respective areas. In other words:



(I love the matching colours.)

[CmdrKing]

Mind you, there’s a strong possibility the fighting will last quite some time, despite military victory becoming vanishingly unlikely. Putin lost the political war the moment Finland applied to NATO if not before, but the trouble is Putin either hasn’t figured this out or, increasingly likely, has realized he has to keep fighting to reverse his fortunes because of the new political reality.

Because I don’t think Russia can get out from under sanctions just with a retreat and formal recognizing of Ukraine’s borders anymore. Either substantive reparations or political change within Russia will be required, and in either event odds are none of it happens unless Putin is out of power. So now his fortunes are entirely tied to this war, meaning it goes until either the army cannot materially prosecute it (which’ll take months or years) or Putin cannot demand it (which… who knows).

Which isn’t to say Ukraine is gonna suddenly lose all their territory or the war, more just sit tight on any “troops home by Christmas” sentiments.

[clearspira]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62879367

Things must be bad... even Russian state media is now admitting that things aren't going well.

According to them though, Russia didn't retreat, they performed a ''pre-planned regrouping.''

[clearspira]

Breaking news: Putin's brand new Ferris wheel has already broken down.

[Madner Kami]

Breaking news: Putin's brand new Ferris wheel has already broken down.

How very russian.