The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Madner Kami]

The Kerch-Strait Bridge went kerblowie.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 4173131776

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 4062473216

[clearspira]

The Kerch-Strait Bridge went kerblowie.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 4173131776

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 4062473216

I can't help but think we've seen a definite step towards nuclear war with this one. I gotta agree with Biden: I don't think we've ever been closer since 1963.

[BridgeConsoleMasher]

Well yeah but that's like pointing at the biggest school shooting in recent history and saying "This is about the closest thing to 9/11."

[Riedquat]

I can't help but think we've seen a definite step towards nuclear war with this one. I gotta agree with Biden: I don't think we've ever been closer since 1963.

I'm seriously worried about the possibility but what else can be done right now? Ukraine roll over and let Russia in to murder and abuse the entire country?

I think there's a distinct possibility that Putin's making such extreme threats mostly to try to give the impression of a strong position so that he might have some chance of negotiating and getting out of this with something; Turkey was saying a little while ago that Putin seems to want out, but just leaving will result in him having an accident with a window. We've had quite a lot of threats from Russia but they've generally been curiously unspecific; they're not even prepared to outright say "we're turning the gas off," rather they're resorting to (very transparent) excuses.

[Madner Kami]

I can't help but think we've seen a definite step towards nuclear war with this one. I gotta agree with Biden: I don't think we've ever been closer since 1963.

I'm seriously worried about the possibility but what else can be done right now? Ukraine roll over and let Russia in to murder and abuse the entire country?

I think there's a distinct possibility that Putin's making such extreme threats mostly to try to give the impression of a strong position so that he might have some chance of negotiating and getting out of this with something; Turkey was saying a little while ago that Putin seems to want out, but just leaving will result in him having an accident with a window. We've had quite a lot of threats from Russia but they've generally been curiously unspecific; they're not even prepared to outright say "we're turning the gas off," rather they're resorting to (very transparent) excuses.

You bow to the threat, you essentially tell him to make the threat again and ask for more territory. The only way to react is to confront him and call the bluff.

[BridgeConsoleMasher]

I can't help but think we've seen a definite step towards nuclear war with this one. I gotta agree with Biden: I don't think we've ever been closer since 1963.

I'm seriously worried about the possibility but what else can be done right now? Ukraine roll over and let Russia in to murder and abuse the entire country?

I think there's a distinct possibility that Putin's making such extreme threats mostly to try to give the impression of a strong position so that he might have some chance of negotiating and getting out of this with something; Turkey was saying a little while ago that Putin seems to want out, but just leaving will result in him having an accident with a window. We've had quite a lot of threats from Russia but they've generally been curiously unspecific; they're not even prepared to outright say "we're turning the gas off," rather they're resorting to (very transparent) excuses.

Putin's probably the epitome of a realist on the world stage. Economic cooperation aside, there are no rules really on international dispute in the form of a parent operative or big stick. It's very unlikely that anybody will try to invade Russia, and he might be routinely ousted like a CEO as part of a darker web of control in which Russia files for political bankruptcy and gets restructured enough to allow the region to trade with it without retaliatory sanctions upon potential partners.

[Riedquat]

Putin's probably the epitome of a realist on the world stage. Economic cooperation aside, there are no rules really on international dispute in the form of a parent operative or big stick. It's very unlikely that anybody will try to invade Russia, and he might be routinely ousted like a CEO as part of a darker web of control in which Russia files for political bankruptcy and gets restructured enough to allow the region to trade with it without retaliatory sanctions upon potential partners.

I used to think that he was something of a realist but a realist wouldn't have ended up in the position he's in now, having made one mistake and misjudgement after another (in no small part thanks to creating an environment where no-one close dares to disagree with him).

[Riedquat]

You bow to the threat, you essentially tell him to make the threat again and ask for more territory. The only way to react is to confront him and call the bluff.

Precisely - at least up to a point anyway. Him having what he wants is a lesser bad outcome than all-out nuclear war. This is where intelligence really comes in to play, and so far it looks like bluffs. Especially since overstepping the line will probably mean what support (or at least blind eyes) he's got actively start turning against him.

Is it a bluff though? As of now I'd say Putin detonating a nuke in currently Russian-controlled territory is a distinct possibility, so he can claim he knows he's serious, but he's also scared of failure and knows complete failure and destruction if the outcome both if he goes too far, and if he fails.

[Draco Dracul]

I can't help but think we've seen a definite step towards nuclear war with this one. I gotta agree with Biden: I don't think we've ever been closer since 1963.

I'm seriously worried about the possibility but what else can be done right now? Ukraine roll over and let Russia in to murder and abuse the entire country?

I think there's a distinct possibility that Putin's making such extreme threats mostly to try to give the impression of a strong position so that he might have some chance of negotiating and getting out of this with something; Turkey was saying a little while ago that Putin seems to want out, but just leaving will result in him having an accident with a window. We've had quite a lot of threats from Russia but they've generally been curiously unspecific; they're not even prepared to outright say "we're turning the gas off," rather they're resorting to (very transparent) excuses.

Putin's probably the epitome of a realist on the world stage. Economic cooperation aside, there are no rules really on international dispute in the form of a parent operative or big stick. It's very unlikely that anybody will try to invade Russia, and he might be routinely ousted like a CEO as part of a darker web of control in which Russia files for political bankruptcy and gets restructured enough to allow the region to trade with it without retaliatory sanctions upon potential partners.

I mean the recent epidemic of people falling out out of windows and down stairs is almost certainly Putin insuring against being overthrown by his power base.

[clearspira]

I like that the Ukrainians also did it at a time of day guaranteed to minimise civilian risk. I don’t know if that was the intent, or just a result of when there was an opening, but even so, it stands as a stark contrast to, say Russia, destroying a town that they couldn’t hold.