The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[BridgeConsoleMasher]

If Russia had successfully invaded Ukraine, there would have been little anyone could do other than finger-waggle, and possibly cut off gas purchases - although given how Europe's citizens have been moaning about that, it seems relatively unlikely to happen in this hypothetical alternate universe.

If people aren't willing to start a war with Russia for fear of nuclear escalation, there aren't a whole lot of meaningful options. The key was in Ukraine's refusal to take this lying down.

They wouldn’t be /aren’t able to do anything serious because otherwise people would actually react.

[McAvoy]

If Russia had successfully invaded Ukraine, there would have been little anyone could do other than finger-waggle, and possibly cut off gas purchases - although given how Europe's citizens have been moaning about that, it seems relatively unlikely to happen in this hypothetical alternate universe.

If people aren't willing to start a war with Russia for fear of nuclear escalation, there aren't a whole lot of meaningful options. The key was in Ukraine's refusal to take this lying down.

Well yeah. If their military was more competent and successful in absorbing Ukraine into Russia, I would imagine even now things would start to simmer down. Even if other countries would filed some toothless protest.

The big question would be is would Putin be satisfied or turn his attention somewhere else? Obviously now, he can't since His War is turning out to be a disaster for Russia.

[BridgeConsoleMasher]

And you don't think Putin's a Russian nationalist retard with severe NATO paranoia?

The matter of him operating in the kgb then surfacing back as the leader in the global post Cold War age…

I think he knows more about nato then the people that run it.

He's spectacularly mis-judged and mis-understood everyone else this year. I think it's pretty clear that he didn't expect much more of a response to the invasion than a bit of token equipment to Ukraine and some finger-wagging after a quick Russian victory, with everyone else being too busy arguing amongst themselves to bother him. He's giving the distinct impression of a man who believes that reality is whatever he thinks it is and won't tolerate hearing anything that might suggest otherwise. Whatever he might've once known is out of date and in any case gets in the way of his ego.

Well yeah it's really cold in Russia, what do you expect?

[Frustration]

The big question would be is would Putin be satisfied or turn his attention somewhere else? Obviously now, he can't since His War is turning out to be a disaster for Russia.

As a history professor of mine once noted, if Hitler had stopped with annexing the Sudetenland, he'd probably be on Germany's money right now. But he was crazy, and started to believe his own propaganda, and kept pushing and pushing and pushing until he pushed his country right over the edge.

This seems rather similar in many ways. As much as I dislike proving Godwin's Law correct, Putin is rather like Hitler.

[Draco Dracul]

I don't think that's accurate simply because a Hitler that would have stopped at the Suddatenland would have never lead the Nazi party and never been chancellor.

[BridgeConsoleMasher]

I don't think that's accurate simply because a Hitler that would have stopped at the Suddatenland would have never lead the Nazi party and never been chancellor.

Well not necessarily lol. It's not really an imperative that his directive conscience couldn't have found more value in what Frustration is saying.

[Madner Kami]

I don't think that's accurate simply because a Hitler that would have stopped at the Suddatenland would have never lead the Nazi party and never been chancellor.

Hitler became the leader of the Nazi-party in 1921.
Hitler became Chancellor in 1933.
Hitler became the president in 1934.
The Sudetenland was annexed in 1938.

For the annexation to happen, Hitler needed to be the leader of the Nazi-party and the chancellor and the president...

[BridgeConsoleMasher]

I don't think that's accurate simply because a Hitler that would have stopped at the Suddatenland would have never lead the Nazi party and never been chancellor.

Hitler became the leader of the Nazi-party in 1921.
Hitler became Chancellor in 1933.
Hitler became the president in 1934.
The Sudetenland was annexed in 1938.

For the annexation to happen, Hitler needed to be the leader of the Nazi-party and the chancellor and the president...

I took it to mean that he meant that a Hitler that stopped at that point in time would have never lead the Nazi party in the first place.

[Draco Dracul]

I don't think that's accurate simply because a Hitler that would have stopped at the Suddatenland would have never lead the Nazi party and never been chancellor.

Well not necessarily lol. It's not really an imperative that his directive conscience couldn't have found more value in what Frustration is saying.

The rhetoric of conquest is what got him into power and without further conquest the Nazi economy would have choked and died.

[Madner Kami]

I took it to mean that he meant that a Hitler that stopped at that point in time would have never lead the Nazi party in the first place.

Probably, but that wasn't the premise. The premise was: What would have happened if the annexation happened, but the invasion of Poland and everything that followed didn't.

The rhetoric of conquest is what got him into power and without further conquest the Nazi economy would have choked and died.

That is in fact the reason why Poland was invaded in 1939. Their economic quasi-ponzi scheme was collapsing, which hastened the projected timeline. The war wasn't supposed to start before the later half of 1940.

The comparison with Russia is just all the more blatant in this regard, because an underprepared Germany invaded Poland and if Britain and France had acted immediatly, the war would've gone very differently. Germany basically would've ran out of ammunition during the polish campaign, if it had been any longer (about 15% of the stockpiles were gone in just 5 weeks, which contributed to the Phoney War). France successfully invaded Germany with superior numbers (40 divisions vs Germany's 22, more than 400 tanks against no tanks and a 40 to 1 superiority in terms of artillery pieces), but somehow decided to go home literally a week after starting and standing 8km deep in german territory. It took the world six years and millioons of dead to fix these mistakes and missed opportunities.
If things keep going the current way, Russia will probably be out of Ukraine somewhen next year, because a few decided to not repeat the same mistakes the allies made in 1939 (and before), except for Putler, who apparently never read a history-book. You do not wage war against the (western) world and come out victorious.