The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[phantom000]

The more I look at what an embarrassing shit show this is for Putin, the more convinced I am that he'll use tactical nukes. Amusingly however, those hypersonic wonderweapons of his so readily taken out by Patriot are also his nuclear launch platform.

That is what has me scared about this whole thing. Granted, this is not exactly the cold war where everyone had their finger on the button. But I don't think it's unfair to ask once the tactical nukes start flying is there anyway to stop it from escalating to ICBMs? And if Putin knows his tactical delivery system is unreliable, is he going to skip it and go straight to Tsar-Bomba II?

[Madner Kami]

1) They'll not start a nuclear attack on anything but Ukraine, as long as Russia proper and their personal power is not threatened.
2) The likelyhood of using nukes on Ukraine is directly related to how believable the US' threat of terminating this war directly, when they're used is. The more he thinks he can get away with it, the more likely he'll use them.
3) The usefullness of tactical nukes depletes day by day, because every dead or incapacitated russian soldier and destroyed tank, makes it harder to exploit the *momentary effect* of a nuke. Nukes aren't a world-ender when used locally. They're more like a really intense and momentary artillery barrage. And now ask yourself: Russia had drastic artillery superiority early in the war, while facing a questionably supplied and disorganized ukrainian force. They didn't manage a breakthrough then. They're not going to now and without a decisive breakthrough as a result of a nuke, the nuke itself was worthless and only increased the likelyhood of escalating the conflict. This is not in Putin's interest.

[Riedquat]

Not a lot Putin does any more is in his interest, and desperate people can do some very, very stupid things.

[Madner Kami]

Not a lot Putin does any more is in his interest, and desperate people can do some very, very stupid things.

His primary interest is having power and lording over other people. He still does that and a nuke only increases the likelyhood of him not doing that anymore. If you want to start arguing that he's not a rational actor anymore, then any discussion is moot in the first place.

[phantom000]

Not a lot Putin does any more is in his interest, and desperate people can do some very, very stupid things.

His primary interest is having power and lording over other people. He still does that and a nuke only increases the likelyhood of him not doing that anymore. If you want to start arguing that he's not a rational actor anymore, then any discussion is moot in the first place.

I would feel more reassured if I hadn't read similar arguments back in Feburary of 2022 about why Putin would not invade because it would not be in his or Russia's interest to do so.

[Madner Kami]

Because many a people, including myself, got lulled into believing we live in a new world, where everything can be solved with a discussion. The reality is, that we are still the same people we were in 1939. What that means is simple: What brought the World War in 1939 was backing down, believing that giving into the demands of a dictator would bring peace. It didn't. What could have stopped the World War before it became one was opposing the dictator, drawing a line in the sand and not backing down. He can do in Russia whatever he wants and his people are willing to endure. But Russia ends where the borders were drawn in 1994. Not. One. Inch. Further. And the moment you flinch, is the moment he'll drop the nukes, because he believes he can win by using them. Don't give into your fears. They're a bad advisor.

[phantom000]

Because many a people, including myself, got lulled into believing we live in a new world, where everything can be solved with a discussion. The reality is, that we are still the same people we were in 1939. What that means is simple: What brought the World War in 1939 was backing down, believing that giving into the demands of a dictator would bring peace. It didn't. What could have stopped the World War before it became one was opposing the dictator, drawing a line in the sand and not backing down. He can do in Russia whatever he wants and his people are willing to endure. But Russia ends where the borders were drawn in 1994. Not. One. Inch. Further.

And Hitler is an example of why the self interest argument doesn't always work. Hitler acted in his own interest which often worked against the best interests of Germany. He constantly undermined and second-guessed the high command because he didn't want them to take the credit for victory. Hitler wanted the German people to see him as the one leading the nation to global domination, not the generals which made things all the more difficult for the military.

So my point is that while it might not be in Russia's interest to use nuclear weapons, even tactical nukes, it still might be in Putin's interest to use them. It would not exactly be unprecedented. They say Truman's decision to drop the bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki had more to do with the next election than anything else.

[Riedquat]

So my point is that while it might not be in Russia's interest to use nuclear weapons, even tactical nukes, it still might be in Putin's interest to use them. It would not exactly be unprecedented. They say Truman's decision to drop the bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki had more to do with the next election than anything else.

Of course the big difference there is that no-one else had them.

The self-interest argument againt Russia using them now is that Russia's finished the moment it does. The problem is when that happens so is everyone else. The risk is that either Putin's gone totally gaga and doesn't care, which could happen if he thinks he's dead anyway, or that he's operating under the delusion that it'll prove how tough he is and no-one will dare respond because of the consequences, the type of nutter who'll keep raising the stakes no matter what because they've got enough ego to believe the other side will always blink first.

The first option is somewhat mitigated if he can run off to China or some other dump of a country that tolerates scum like him, the second if it's made abundently clear that the civilised world will not be cowed by that.

[Frustration]

I'm hopeful that the difficulties Putin has faced with discovering all the yes-men surrounding him will make him think twice about using nukes.

[McAvoy]

So my point is that while it might not be in Russia's interest to use nuclear weapons, even tactical nukes, it still might be in Putin's interest to use them. It would not exactly be unprecedented. They say Truman's decision to drop the bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki had more to do with the next election than anything else.

Of course the big difference there is that no-one else had them.

The self-interest argument againt Russia using them now is that Russia's finished the moment it does. The problem is when that happens so is everyone else. The risk is that either Putin's gone totally gaga and doesn't care, which could happen if he thinks he's dead anyway, or that he's operating under the delusion that it'll prove how tough he is and no-one will dare respond because of the consequences, the type of nutter who'll keep raising the stakes no matter what because they've got enough ego to believe the other side will always blink first.

The first option is somewhat mitigated if he can run off to China or some other dump of a country that tolerates scum like him, the second if it's made abundently clear that the civilised world will not be cowed by that.

If Putin somehow runs after using Nukes presumably also with Russia rejecting him, he will have a huge target on him. No matter what country. Right now he is safe, he will not if he uses nukes and is outside his own country.

I am still hoping for some general tired oof his shit and with nothing left to lose, 'unalives' him.