The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[phantom000]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russ ... -rcna86588

Russia launches an all-drone attack on Kyiv, 52 out of 54 were successfully shot down but I wonder if this might be the start of a new strategy. Putin can't keep throwing men and tanks at Ukraine, but drones might be another story all together and this could have implications beyond Ukraine itself.

I remember talking to a guy about how drones would change society and I said 'who needs suicide bombers when you have suicide drones?' which is accurate description of the Iranian drones Russia used.

[clearspira]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russ ... -rcna86588

Russia launches an all-drone attack on Kyiv, 52 out of 54 were successfully shot down but I wonder if this might be the start of a new strategy. Putin can't keep throwing men and tanks at Ukraine, but drones might be another story all together and this could have implications beyond Ukraine itself.

I remember talking to a guy about how drones would change society and I said 'who needs suicide bombers when you have suicide drones?' which is accurate description of the Iranian drones Russia used.

You cannot win a war without immeasurable ground superiority in 2023 any more than Hitler's Luftwaffe couldn't invade Britain, or America's DDT/napalm dropping Huey's couldn't in Vietnam, or the Soviets couldn't with their Hinds and MiGs in Afghanistan.

If Russia is stuck using drones then this is good news for Ukraine. It means they are losing, not winning.

[TGLS]

Russia launches an all-drone attack on Kyiv, 52 out of 54 were successfully shot down but I wonder if this might be the start of a new strategy. Putin can't keep throwing men and tanks at Ukraine

There's over a hundred million Russians. They've only sent in less than a million and a half. They can continue throwing bodies at this endeavor.

[phantom000]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russ ... -rcna86588

Russia launches an all-drone attack on Kyiv, 52 out of 54 were successfully shot down but I wonder if this might be the start of a new strategy. Putin can't keep throwing men and tanks at Ukraine, but drones might be another story all together and this could have implications beyond Ukraine itself.

I remember talking to a guy about how drones would change society and I said 'who needs suicide bombers when you have suicide drones?' which is accurate description of the Iranian drones Russia used.

You cannot win a war without immeasurable ground superiority in 2023 any more than Hitler's Luftwaffe couldn't invade Britain, or America's DDT/napalm dropping Huey's couldn't in Vietnam, or the Soviets couldn't with their Hinds and MiGs in Afghanistan.

If Russia is stuck using drones then this is good news for Ukraine. It means they are losing, not winning.

They certainly caused a lot of trouble for the defenders in question, not to mention it was the Allied bombing offensive that crippled the Axis military in WW2 and pushed back the North Koreans in 1950. If conquering Ukraine out right is not an option Putin could try bombing them into accepted some kind of settlement, which is kinda-sorta what happened near the end of the Vietnam War.

[Madner Kami]

They certainly caused a lot of trouble for the defenders in question, not to mention it was the Allied bombing offensive that crippled the Axis military in WW2 and pushed back the North Koreans in 1950. If conquering Ukraine out right is not an option Putin could try bombing them into accepted some kind of settlement, which is kinda-sorta what happened near the end of the Vietnam War.

52 out of 54 Shaheds were intercepted.

1944 was the year with the highest production of military goods in Germany during the 1933-1945 era.

[CmdrKing]

I would guess the drones aren’t so much a bold new strategy so much as Russia testing whether they could effectively use them at all as Ukraine’s anti-air capabilities improve. Obviously didn’t work, but if they had Russia has two big gains there:

- air superiority has been their biggest advantage the whole war, but Russia is gonna have problem replacing any losses compared to replacing infantry, transport, or armor. Drones if viable relieve a lot of that pressure.
- this war is not popular in Russia, and will become sharply less so if he starts sending Moscowites to the front lines. As his ability to project power within Russia diminishes having a role for those at his seat of power to fill that kept them away from the front would have been a low risk way to bolster his forces.

The failure of these drones is just that much more pressure on him, fewer options that don’t trigger his internal political loss conditions.

[Madner Kami]

- air superiority has been their biggest advantage the whole war, but Russia is gonna have problem replacing any losses compared to replacing infantry, transport, or armor. Drones if viable relieve a lot of that pressure.

Russia doesn't have air superiority. They are dropping glide bombs at front-installations and their helicopters are throwing *direct fire* rockets in arc shots at whoever it concerns, essentially using them as artillery. Air superiority means, your air forces are capable of operating within the enemy's territories and while being somewhat capable of resisting, the defender can't stop the attacks or even interfere in the success of said operations.
What we see in Ukraine is Air Parity on both sides. Neither can operate in the other's air-space without a high likelyhood of total loss or high amounts of losses.

As for Shaheds, well, what Russia did was a saturation attack with a low speed, propeller-driven budget cruise missile. They're cheap to make in big numbers, but they can be shot down easily and inexpensively. Ukraine just needs more Geparden and ammunition. Attacks with Shaheds won't harm Ukraine unless Russia manages to field thousands in shortly repeated waves. They can't, especially now that Iran is under attack by the Taliban. What Russia is doing right there, is the equivalent of a drowning man flailing his arms around in a desperate effort of staying afloat for a few more minutes.

[Frustration]

There's over a hundred million Russians. They've only sent in less than a million and a half. They can continue throwing bodies at this endeavor.

How many of those Russians are of an appropriate age to be drafted? How much of Russia's economy is Russia willing to sacrifice by pulling those people out of whatever they were going and sending them to the front?

[Madner Kami]

There's over a hundred million Russians. They've only sent in less than a million and a half. They can continue throwing bodies at this endeavor.

How many of those Russians are of an appropriate age to be drafted? How much of Russia's economy is Russia willing to sacrifice by pulling those people out of whatever they were going and sending them to the front?

Oh, right. I wanted to drop a line on that, too. Russia is considering the 6-day work week (without monetary compensation, of course). That's not a sign of an infinite horde of bodies to throw at their problems.

[BridgeConsoleMasher]

There's over a hundred million Russians. They've only sent in less than a million and a half. They can continue throwing bodies at this endeavor.

How many of those Russians are of an appropriate age to be drafted? How much of Russia's economy is Russia willing to sacrifice by pulling those people out of whatever they were going and sending them to the front?

I would guess his general point either way was a lot of them.