The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[clearspira]

There are unconfirmed reports that since the beginning of the military operation, Wagner has lost only one UAZ keep, while the Russian army has lost an airplane, three helicopters, one armored vehicle and one KamAZ. Wagner troops have occupied Rostov-on-Don , passed through Voronezh Oblast and have been seen in Lupetsk Oblast. Reported they are being treated like liberators, not occupiers in that no civilians have been taking up arms against them.

I saw a retired military man on the news earlier note that Russia has a ''Ukraine problem'' because this is happening during Ukraine's biggest counter-offensive yet whereby they are already gaining ground. Either they retreat their forces to fight Wagner and let Ukraine take even more land, or they stand their ground and hope that their remaining forces are enough to defend Russia. This could be the turning point, friends.

Also this:

We're seeing civil war in Russia, says Ukraine defence adviser
Yuriy Sak

"We are little-by-little running out of popcorn,” jokes Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine's defence minister.

Sak has, like the rest of the world, been watching events unfold in Russia at an “unprecedented speed”.

Speaking to BBC World Service Newshour, Saks says just before Russia began its 2022 attack on Ukraine the world thought Russia had “the second most powerful army in the world”.

“Yesterday everybody knew that Russia was the second most powerful army in Ukraine and today we're seeing how... the Russian army is becoming the second most powerful army in Russia."

Sak believes events in Russia could be the start of something extremely significant. He says the Kremlin has been lying “for such a long time… about the losses of the Russian army” and that sooner or later the situation would “implode and lead to a civil war”.

“What we're seeing now in Russia is a civil war,” adds Sak.

[Madner Kami]

This is Game Over for Putin. He failed to squash the coup fast. He was forced to finally and publically pick sides in the internal struggles and he choose the side of those directly responsible for the current situation. Everything that Wagner needs to do at this point is, to either win or hold out for a week or two. During that time, the russian military in Ukraine is essentially leaderless, the logistical situation will worsen and Ukraine will succeed in more engagements. At that point, the russian Army will disintegrate and the war is over.

And if Prigoshin wins... He knows the situation in Ukraine and has already publically denounced the reasons for this war. He'll sue for peace soon enough, maybe try to keep Crimea and Donbas (which Kjiv likely won't accept) and, failing that, retreat.

If Putin somehow wins, he's weakend. He has nothing to throw at Prigoshin, outside of Chechens and Riot Police and once the dam is broken... Just you wait for the next troop-elevated Caesar to come.

[phantom000]

If Putin somehow wins, he's weakend. He has nothing to throw at Prigoshin, outside of Chechens and Riot Police and once the dam is broken... Just you wait for the next troop-elevated Caesar to come.

A troop elevated Caesar sitting on one of the world's biggest nuclear arsenals.

[Riedquat]

If Putin somehow wins, he's weakend. He has nothing to throw at Prigoshin, outside of Chechens and Riot Police and once the dam is broken... Just you wait for the next troop-elevated Caesar to come.

A troop elevated Caesar sitting on one of the world's biggest nuclear arsenals.

That sounds bad, and it is, but is it any worse than the lunatic currently in charge of them?

I can't actually see Wagner taking over but it's destroyed Putin's image even at home.

[clearspira]

Wagner pulled back. He claims it was to avoid bloodshed. I think however that the closer he got the more shit started to get real. He's a dead man walking.

However...

There is also a theory going around that this could have been a false flag. It gives Putin the excuse to pull back out of Ukraine ''to protect his people.'' It has been noted that Putin didn't make much effort to stop him just cruising up the motorway to Moscow. You would think that the air force would have been levelling his convoy given the supposed extreme threat. In fact, there wasn't a lot of resistance anywhere. I know I said earlier that it was reported that all of these Russian vehicles had been destroyed, but no one is reporting casualties. Almost as if those vehicles were empty.

Just something to ponder.

[hammerofglass]

Where's he going to pull back to? He already crossed the Rubicon, no going back in that.

[Madner Kami]

Where's he going to pull back to? He already crossed the Rubicon, no going back in that.

Allegedly he struck a deal leading to an exile in Belarus. This entire thing is surreal to watch, as it makes no sense from any angle. We're missing a piece of the puzzle.

And yes, even if Prigoshin really decided to back down: The lid on this kettle is open. Putin had to make a deal to stay in power, as otherwise Prigoshin would be dead, which he most definitly is not (at the time of this writing at least). Everybody has seen the Caesar and knows he's naked now.

Also, the 7 helicopters/airplanes shot down were definitly manned. At least 15 russian soldiers died, plus an unknown number of civilians, when the russian air force struck a bus near a group of Wagner vehicles.

[CmdrKing]

It could be as simple as Prigozhin genuinely believing that Shoigu was so unpopular with the regular army that there would be a mass defection as long as he formed a rallying point. But if so he had to have realized he'd miscalculated before actually marching on Moscow, so that's odd too.
But it's certainly the sorta of bizarre ending that invites conspiracy theories. We'll have to see what the coming days bring I guess.

And yeah, the detail that sticks out in my mind is Lukashenko is the one that apparently brokered this deal, not Putin and his people directly. Prigozhin leaving this situation alive at all makes Putin seem unspeakably weak, but not even negotiating surrender on his own, after an entire day of his internal security refusing to engage the rebels? There's gotta be some would-be warlords plotting out how and when to break away from the Russian Federation as we speak.

[hammerofglass]

Prigozhin is going to find a surprise in his tea pretty quickly is my guess.

[phantom000]

There is all sorts of possible answers concerning 'what happened?' Maybe he let his outrage runaway with him, maybe he thought Putin and the Russian Highcommand would buckle under the threat, maybe he just panicked?

Like 9/11 and the Kennedy assassination we might never know for sure and people will be talking about this for a long time.

Still, to me the big question right now is what is going to happen to The Wagner Group itself?