Trump vs Biden^H^H^H^H^H Harris: Kamala Rising

[CmdrKing]

Considering the biggest factors behind the loss were “widespread voter apathy” and “voters deeply unhappy with the incumbent due to perceived economic precarity”, the most cogent analysis of the election is “Biden beefed it by running for reelection rather than letting democrats hold a robust primary”.

Like, the sitting Vice President can’t convincingly get up there and say “Biden didn’t do enough for the American people and we can do more!” Harris is his VP, it’d be obviously fake!


Like, if you want to argue that other factors did more to turn voters off Harris, I get it. I’d argue that rank sexism is the single biggest factor in this election, myself. But if we’re taking a cold, hard look at what changed between 2020 and 2024? Yeah, the leading conclusion is “Biden’s pride fucked us”.

[Nobody700]

Honestly...

The fact they ALL voted for Trump and he won the popular vote doesn't say Democrats failed extremely badly. I can write a list of the top 100 fuckups of Democrats in 2024 alone... but that list is nothing on the GOP. But they won. In a massive wave.

So yeah... it's more America kinda said fuck it and killed itself for various reasons.

[ProfessorDetective]

I'm still willing to buy that it was primarily economics (with the MAGA faithful being notable but secondary).

Gas and food and rent are still too high, so burn it all down until we get someone who can just snap their fingers and fix it.

Apparently, quite a few incumbent governments have been ousted in recent elections (Japan, the UK, couple others). I think the whole planet may be trying to wipe the slate clean...

Problem is that we only have two viable options here and the non-incumbent just so happened to be the GREATER of the two evils who has full-on BOASTED that he'll make everything worse.

[CmdrKing]

I think that summarizing the issue down to “economics” is doing people too much credit in many instances. Like, people will say “the economy” but ignored that only one candidate was proposing solutions for economic hardship (incomplete and possibly inadequate ones! But solutions) and it was the candidate who lost. Trump’s economic platform was a series of obvious grifts and obvious disasters that we may well never recover from if he follows through on them.

The thing to remember here is that Trump did not substantially increase his 2020 numbers. All the Nazi youth and flipped Latine votes amounted to replacing the millions of his followers he got killed by telling them vaccines and masks were dangerous.

the larger factor was a lotta Biden voters just staying home, by most account particularly suburban white men. And that’s where my comment about Biden staying in too long becomes relevant: selfish as they have been, those are voters that are dispirited and don’t see much improvement to their lives coming from any candidate. And it’s hard to motivate them if you can’t get up and say with your whole chest “Biden’s economy is not great and we can do better”, and Harris as his VP… can’t.

[ProfessorDetective]

I have a possible idea about the first point: the pandemic stimulus.

You see, most Americans, especially the undereducated ones, do NOT understand how macro-economic works. All they know is what's in front of them.

So, Covid happens and to mitigate just how little cash is flowing through the US, the Trump Admin both gives most tax payers a pretty decent lump sum of cash, upped unemployment benefits, and did a few tax credits. For many, this is the greatest amount of liquid capital they have ever had. They're the most financially comfortable they've ever been.

Now, hit 2024. The inflation from dumping so much cash into the economy has caused record inflation (which the Biden Admin HAS been able to mitigate, somewhat), the credits and benefits have been dialed back, and events like Ukraine and that avian flu outbreak (along with simple corpo greed) have seen the cost of living skyrocket. To Jim and Flo of Anytown, Middle America, everything has gone to complete hell. Things were GREAT (Again) with Trump, now they stink with Biden, who CLEARLY isn't doing anything to fix things (he was, just not in any way that the general public really noticed).

Also, the Dem candidate was a woman of color AND the VP of the Admin that CLEARLY wasn't doing it's job, the ongoing Palestine conflict (and the economy) lead to a lot of left-wing voter apathy, and the right-wing, culture war, propaganda machine was/is working overtime.

I could be WAY off base and it WAS all the the Regressive Industrial Complex clinching the win, but I'm willing to put real cash on THIS being the likeliest scenario. We will see when the post-mortems come out in a few months.

(Note: I didn't read that last paragraph very well before writing all of this, you hit a few of my points, already. But I spent twenty minutes on this, so...)

[McAvoy]

There is alot of factors. It's just a question which ones or combination of them for the reason why Harris lost.

Like her not effectively distancing herself from Biden which I am very sure was a factor. Too many I have seen felt that with Trump the economy was far better and Biden made it worse. Despite alot of factors that created the inflation and increased prices that had nothing to do with Biden.

Or that Biden should not have gone for second term and then at the last hour dropping out and letting Harris take his place.

Or that Harris is a woman and yes I have personally heard a few people actually say they will not vote for a woman. Or worse. She was a woman of color but not recognized as much to the black community.

Foreign policy. US may not be at war but there are wars happening that could drag the US into them. No trust that Biden or Harris could stop them.

And yes. The wokeness.

[hammerofglass]

I'd be willing to bet the buddying up with far-right figures like Liz Cheney lost her a ton of votes, too. Adopting Republican language and policies on immigration wholesale. Supporting police crackdowns on student protests. It's the same problem Biden had getting enthusiasm; for all the MAGA propaganda that she's some woke ultra-leftist radical socialist she's really so conservative she's barely a Democrat.

But that's been the Democrats for decades now: give the progressive wing of the coalition nothing, then blame them when you lose.

[McAvoy]

Well the final tally shows the race was closer than Trump thought. 2.5 million more voted for him than Harris, though 6 million less votes than Biden in 2020.

Since the election was announced to be over so many far right commentators started bringing up that this proves that Biden cheated and didn't get 81 million votes. They just don't understand that liberals are very varied and honestly fickle when it comes to voting. So she only got 91% of the vote compared to Biden's.

Whatever the reason was, it was enough for 6 million Democrat voters not to show up. Nevermind the countless voters who never vote for whatever reason.

[Madner Kami]

In short, Harris gained rich, white, old people to vote for her, at the cost of poor, non-white, young and middle-aged voters. It's almost as if making "bi-partisan" politics and announcing a democrat-cabinet with republican advisors is a fucking stupid idea.

[CmdrKing]

No joke one reason I voted early was so that when inevitably the excellent energy coming into the convention went away I could just be angry about it without anyone accusing me of planning not to vote for her.

Palling around with the fucking Cheney’s was still pretty galling though.