International Elections and Politics (no US/UK)

[TheNewTeddy]

Uh, buddy, there's a good chance she'll be leading a party with 170 thanks to you.

Bah, the electoral system (Semi-Proportional (100 votes/riding), Ranked Ballots) of the Conservative Leadership convention will stop the fringe candidates.

Since there can only be one winner, the "proportionality" will not matter much.

[TGLS]

It prevents razor thin victories from securing the entire vote of the riding. Add in all the Quebec ridings that are unlikely to vote for O'Leary or Leitch, and I find it doubtful either can win without moving above 50% of the members.

[griffeytrek]

The French presidential election is going to be a big one.

After the spate of attacks plus French PM being booed for telling the French people they should just live with terrorism, there's been a hard lurch to the right. Le Pen is staunchly anti-immigration and highly nationalistic. You may well see the end of the EU with her election.

I was discussing with my good friend Sven about the state of German politics. He believes it unlikely Merkel will be removed from power in the elections. She's near universally loathed by the German people at the moment, but the alternatives are people so far to the left or so far to to the right that she's seen as the least terrible option.

Yeah I think from an International standpoint France will be the big one to watch. an old axiom cooked up by a political reporter from Latin America a few years ago is a great way to predict elections better than polling. Watch who is having fun on the campaign trail. Watch which candidates are enjoying themselves. Watch the levels of crowd turnout and enthusiasm. In France this seems to be LePen. Neither Macron nor Fillon seem to be having fun. And their campaign speeches and events seem more desolate than Hillary Clinton's. While Frances runoff system can be harder to predict, I rather suspect that the current polling is at least as off as it was in the US and the UK.

Germany will be interesting. I don't see how Merkel survives. I rather suspect that her coalition will toss her under the bus in order to preserve their overall power. Even if her party wins she loses at this point. If the polling shifts much more negative she will likely follow Hollande in bowing out paving the way for a centrist compromise successor from her own party.

[Rasp]

As of this morning President Park has been officially impeached by the South Korean constitutional court - My contacts across the region are hailing it as a victory for democracy. An election will be held in the next 6 months to replace her. My contacts out forward the name Jae-myung Lee as a potential candidate.

I think he's a bit foolish to think Trump will be a rational actor but he's definitely a fiery populist way too the left of where the Park regime was. If Korea behaves anything like the UK or the US in the next few month this guy has a REALLY good shot at winning. His primary opponent will like be Moon Jae-in he's more of a spineless moderate very obama-like he might have a really hard time of he cant quell the anger and passion flowing from the Korean youth.

[Fixer]

I was surprised to see that there was still a hardcore group of individuals still supporting the ousted president and protesting for her to remain in power.

The way it was described was that the Elders were loyal to her father and saw her as some sort of wayward daughter that deserved another chance.

[Rasp]

I was surprised to see that there was still a hardcore group of individuals still supporting the ousted president and protesting for her to remain in power.

The way it was described was that the Elders were loyal to her father and saw her as some sort of wayward daughter that deserved another chance.

True but their cries mostly fall on deaf ears. Whatever they may think Park is not a child and must take responsibility for her horrific choices. If the courts say that means spending the remainder of her life in a cell ... then she got off easy.

[Fixer]

True but their cries mostly fall on deaf ears. Whatever they may think Park is not a child and must take responsibility for her horrific choices. If the courts say that means spending the remainder of her life in a cell ... then she got off easy.

Considering that she was indoctrinated by a cult leader as well, I'd say a long term therapy session wouldn't go amiss either.

On a more inspiring note. 6 months of peaceful protest making such a positive change. The South Korean people should be proud of that.

Edit: Also


youtu.be/x5Je3IWQqsA

[TheNewTeddy]

Labor has won Western Australia's state elections

[PerrySimm]

Germany will be interesting. I don't see how Merkel survives. I rather suspect that her coalition will toss her under the bus in order to preserve their overall power.

I'll keep an eye open during the Landtag elections in Saarland on how the CDU is doing. It'll be puzzling if Germany jukes left while France jukes right.

[Fixer]

Dutch elections are going ahead today.
There's a predicted hard swing to the far right with Geert Wilder's "Party for Freedom" who's election manifesto includes several highly illiberal laws banning Islamic institutions and the Koran.

There's recently been several high profile spats with Turkey as well.

It's highly unlikely that he'll gain power but the vote will be a barometer for continental European sentiment in upcoming elections.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39275194