Brexit Rambles

[unknownsample]

BREAKING: Brexit negotiations still going poorly. I thought the EU would be partially appeased by the Chequers plan, but it looks like they've taken a hard line and are intent on squeezing the UK for all it's worth.

That and the Chequers plan was terrible.

Well yes. I'm really rather sick of there being no apparent interest in negotation really (and of those people defending that position).

The plan was doomed from the start, but of course leavers will just blame the EU rather than themselves.

[Riedquat]

BREAKING: Brexit negotiations still going poorly. I thought the EU would be partially appeased by the Chequers plan, but it looks like they've taken a hard line and are intent on squeezing the UK for all it's worth.

That and the Chequers plan was terrible.

Well yes. I'm really rather sick of there being no apparent interest in negotation really (and of those people defending that position).

The plan was doomed from the start, but of course leavers will just blame the EU rather than themselves.

The Chequers plan or leaving in general? I won't blame the EU for not accepting it, I will blame them for demonstrating a rather childish "we don't have to negotiate" action in general, and for continuing to demonstrate the type of attitude that eventually built up to the Leave vote. Whether or not it's fair to lay this on the EU itself, plenty of its supporters have fallen into the trap of seeing someone walk out on them and refusing to even consider questioning their own behaviour. No, must always blame the one who first says "that's it!"

[LittleRaven]

Happens internally too.

Only to leaders that don't push properly.

Lots of people in Iraq wanted to kill Saddam. Loads of people in Libya wanted Gaddaffi dead. Both men were quite secure in their countries until outside forces intervened. You think nobody wanted to kill Stalin, or Tito, or Mao, or Franco? And yet all of these men died comfortably in power, because they knew how to keep people afraid without pushing them over the edge.

Of course, they also possessed advantages the EU does not. Saddam was quite comfortable putting people through plastic shredders....the EU doesn't have that option. But that just means they have to lean on the tools they do have all that much harder. If Britain walks, and feels no pain, it's only a matter of time until another country does the same. And that could bring the whole house of cards crashing down. The EU is not just a trading block any more. It has a banking system, a currency, a judicial system, a parliament...the works. All of that could be threatened if people start pulling out. There are trillions of dollars at stake here. Contagion is a real danger that requires a real response.

When the Southern States tried this trick, we shut them down HARD in the US - to the tune of half a million dead Americans. Now obviously the EU doesn't want to go THAT route, and good on them...but they have to do SOMETHING.

[TGLS]

You think nobody wanted to kill Stalin, or Tito, or Mao, or Franco?

I think the other leaders had the advantage of being rather invulnerable to external threats (both Libya and Iraq weren't too able to resist a world power like America), and actually being fairly capable at inspiring fear & love at the same time (the style Machiavelli figured was best).

[Riedquat]

Of course, they also possessed advantages the EU does not. Saddam was quite comfortable putting people through plastic shredders....the EU doesn't have that option. But that just means they have to lean on the tools they do have all that much harder. If Britain walks, and feels no pain, it's only a matter of time until another country does the same. And that could bring the whole house of cards crashing down. The EU is not just a trading block any more. It has a banking system, a currency, a judicial system, a parliament...the works. All of that could be threatened if people start pulling out. There are trillions of dollars at stake here. Contagion is a real danger that requires a real response.

Which is why it needs to be something that people simply don't want to walk out of. If countries do want to walk out of it then it needs to start asking why, and fixing itself. Not trying to put the fear of god into them. Part of the problem is that it has gone beyond just a trading block; IMO it needs to wind back some of those developments. If all those are threatened - well, so what? You'd prefer to keep people tied to a system you're saying they don't want? That's certainly not an improving world, and if the EU isn't being a force for being an improving world then it absolutely should end. Personally speaking I don't think it's gone anywhere near that far, or is in much danger of doing so, but Brexit in particular and a lot of other rumblings are a sign of a serious lack of introspection and flexibility.

[Riedquat]

When the Southern States tried this trick, we shut them down HARD in the US - to the tune of half a million dead Americans. Now obviously the EU doesn't want to go THAT route, and good on them...but they have to do SOMETHING.

Following that line, should Britain have done more to prevent American independence? Should the UK have let Scotland have a referendum on independence?

[unknownsample]

BREAKING: Brexit negotiations still going poorly. I thought the EU would be partially appeased by the Chequers plan, but it looks like they've taken a hard line and are intent on squeezing the UK for all it's worth.

That and the Chequers plan was terrible.

Well yes. I'm really rather sick of there being no apparent interest in negotation really (and of those people defending that position).

The plan was doomed from the start, but of course leavers will just blame the EU rather than themselves.

The Chequers plan or leaving in general? I won't blame the EU for not accepting it, I will blame them for demonstrating a rather childish "we don't have to negotiate" action in general, and for continuing to demonstrate the type of attitude that eventually built up to the Leave vote. Whether or not it's fair to lay this on the EU itself, plenty of its supporters have fallen into the trap of seeing someone walk out on them and refusing to even consider questioning their own behaviour. No, must always blame the one who first says "that's it!"

if you want to talk about childish attitudes then I suggest you look at your own side. People voted leave because they were lied to, they were told this would be easy, they were told we could be great again, they were told we could have our cake and eat it. All lies, now it we need to stock up on food because we're heading for disaster and it's not our fault, but the EU's.

[LittleRaven]

Which is why it needs to be something that people simply don't want to walk out of.

Eh...the EU comes with plenty of carrots. Free movement throughout Europe, free trade, access to financial markets, a currency that ranks just behind the US dollar in terms of power. There are literally trillions of reasons to stay.

But sometimes, carrots aren't enough. That's why God invented sticks.

If all those are threatened - well, so what? You'd prefer to keep people tied to a system you're saying they don't want?

Well, I don't care. I'm an American sitting in Texas. It's no skin off my back either way. But if I were an EU official? I'd absolutely care. The EU represents a dream that's much bigger than any one country. It's an enterprise that has spanned decades, and the potential payoff is enormous. Look at the US. A country with barely 330 million people that even at it's most dysfunctional (and boy howdy do we earn that label these days) sits atop the world like a colossus. If Britain were to leave the EU and join the US, it would be the second poorest state in the nation. That's how rich America has managed to make itself. Now think of what a truly united Europe could do.

I can certainly see how some people could be persuaded that the EU is worth preserving. Particularly if they get to be in charge.

[Riedquat]

Which is why it needs to be something that people simply don't want to walk out of.

Eh...the EU comes with plenty of carrots. Free movement throughout Europe, free trade, access to financial markets, a currency that ranks just behind the US dollar in terms of power. There are literally trillions of reasons to stay.

But sometimes, carrots aren't enough. That's why God invented sticks.

Better to use sticks and tell people which carrots they should like? Better to tell people what should matter to them, and beat them in to line when they disagree? No thanks.

If all those are threatened - well, so what? You'd prefer to keep people tied to a system you're saying they don't want?

Well, I don't care. I'm an American sitting in Texas. It's no skin off my back either way. But if I were an EU official? I'd absolutely care. The EU represents a dream that's much bigger than any one country. It's an enterprise that has spanned decades, and the potential payoff is enormous. Look at the US. A country with barely 330 million people that even at it's most dysfunctional (and boy howdy do we earn that label these days) sits atop the world like a colossus. If Britain were to leave the EU and join the US, it would be the second poorest state in the nation. That's how rich America has managed to make itself. Now think of what a truly united Europe could do.

I can certainly see how some people could be persuaded that the EU is worth preserving. Particularly if they get to be in charge.

Money and power (and who actually gets to benefit it)? Britain has been there, done that.

[LittleRaven]

Following that line, should Britain have done more to prevent American independence? Should the UK have let Scotland have a referendum on independence?

Uh...Britain wasn't exactly keen on letting the US go. In fact, they objected somewhat strenuously. If it hadn't have been for France, they probably would have won, too. (love ya, Rochambeau!)

I don't know enough about British history to say whether or not they could have done more. Certainly, in light of what America became...man, can you imagine if the power of the North American continent still answered to London? The world would be a very different place, that's for sure. But that would probably have been very, very hard to accomplish. Heck, it's been hard enough just keeping everything answering to DC.

As far as I know, Britain is fairly unique in its willingness to dissolve itself. The US would never, EVER let a state secede...we had a robust but definitive argument about that back in 1865. But Britain certainly seems sincere about letting Scotland leave if it wants to, which is amazing to me. And the way you guys just let your Empire go? Impressive. France had to be beaten bloody before they would retreat from anywhere...just ask the Algerians. Don't get me wrong, Britain certainly had the arguably smarter approach, but it strikes me as historically uncommon.