Trump- how low can he go?

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Durandal_1707
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Re: Trump- how low can he go?

Post by Durandal_1707 »

TGLS wrote:Buchanan, the worst president, had a hypothetical AAR of 31.8%, while Lincoln had a hypothetical AAR of 110.2%.
Not that Lincoln shouldn't be highly rated, but how can it be higher than 100%?
Getting away from statistics, I seriously doubt that Trump will be able to beat out Buchanan for last unless he starts a literal civil war, or he starts an unpopular war and the economy implodes.
Buchanan's claim to shame is that he sat there and let something happen that, if we're being honest, was probably inevitably going to happen eventually. That's shitty, especially when you read about some of his teeth-grindingly idiotic attitudes toward the whole thing, but I still think Trump can top it if he manages to cause a disaster that wasn't already looming on the horizon—something that only happens because he was in charge, where we would have been fine otherwise. :?
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Re: Trump- how low can he go?

Post by TGLS »

Durandal_1707 wrote:
TGLS wrote:Buchanan, the worst president, had a hypothetical AAR of 31.8%, while Lincoln had a hypothetical AAR of 110.2%.
Not that Lincoln shouldn't be highly rated, but how can it be higher than 100%?
It's a flaw in my model. I fit a line of best fit to historically ranked presidents with opinion polls, then invert the equation of the line to turn ranks into average approval ratings. Yes, this leaves much to be desired. Note that there is a correlation, albeit weak.
Durandal_1707 wrote:
Getting away from statistics, I seriously doubt that Trump will be able to beat out Buchanan for last unless he starts a literal civil war, or he starts an unpopular war and the economy implodes.
Buchanan's claim to shame is that he sat there and let something happen that, if we're being honest, was probably inevitably going to happen eventually. That's shitty, especially when you read about some of his teeth-grindingly idiotic attitudes toward the whole thing, but I still think Trump can top it if he manages to cause a disaster that wasn't already looming on the horizon—something that only happens because he was in charge, where we would have been fine otherwise. :?
Maybe. Just playing around with some thoughts here:

Presidents don't win points for what they do or don't do. Presidents win points on what happens. Truman did a bunch of unpopular things that might have gone badly, but it worked out, and he's remembered fondly. Eisenhower signed a peace that was inevitable, and presided over a good time. For this, he is remembered well. Coolidge signed legislation that did bad after his presidency, and for this he is not remembered fondly. Ford pardoned Nixon's and is not remembered fondly. Carter governed through an oil crisis and Americans were kidnapped, not fondly. Clinton swept in and claimed the peace dividend, fondly. Bush came in controversially, started fairly inevitable wars, and the economy collapsed, not fondly.

Looking at these, it would appear that presidents lose, for things that aren't entirely their fault... Swap Gore and Bush, and Gore's rank could very well be the same.
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Re: Trump- how low can he go?

Post by T-L »

That brings to mind (former prime minister) Macmillan's line when asked by a journalist what governments fear 'Events, dear boy, events.' those things which crop up which government often can't control but will be judged on and expected to deal with none the less.
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Re: Trump- how low can he go?

Post by Durandal_1707 »

TGLS wrote:Presidents don't win points for what they do or don't do. Presidents win points on what happens. Truman did a bunch of unpopular things that might have gone badly, but it worked out, and he's remembered fondly.
Depending on how you feel about his being the only world leader so far to have dropped nukes on civilians.
Eisenhower signed a peace that was inevitable, and presided over a good time. For this, he is remembered well.
I'd argue that that's far from the only thing that Eisenhower's remembered fondly for.
Coolidge signed legislation that did bad after his presidency, and for this he is not remembered fondly.
That's something he did, though, not something that just happened.
Ford pardoned Nixon's and is not remembered fondly. Carter governed through an oil crisis and Americans were kidnapped, not fondly. Clinton swept in and claimed the peace dividend, fondly.
Can't really quibble with these too much. Clinton should get a bit of credit for getting the budget balanced for the only time in my lifetime, though.
Bush came in controversially, started fairly inevitable wars, and the economy collapsed, not fondly.
Iraq was far from inevitable, and there's a pretty good case to be made for Bush's policies contributing to the 2008 collapse as well.
Looking at these, it would appear that presidents lose, for things that aren't entirely their fault... Swap Gore and Bush, and Gore's rank could very well be the same.
With Gore, we probably would have still been in Afghanistan, but Iraq is questionable. Whether Gore would have passed tougher regulations to try to prevent the abuses that led to the 2008 housing crisis, well, I suppose it would have been tough to do with a hostile Congress. We'll never know, I suppose.
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Re: Trump- how low can he go?

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Eisenhower was the last really good Republican President. That's not to say he didn't have his faults, but it was following his Presidency that Nixon came in, implemented the Southern strategy, and set the Republican Party on course to be where it is today- the party of regressive bigotry, unrestrained corruption, and partisanship over country. Trump is simply the culmination of what Nixon began.

Plus, Eisenhower coined the phrase "military-industrail complex". And wasn't it actually under him that NASA got started?
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Re: Trump- how low can he go?

Post by Durandal_1707 »

I'm pretty much a dyed-in-the-wool Democrat, but if you time-traveled Eisenhower to the present day, I'd consider voting for him. He wasn't perfect, as you say, but he did an awful lot of things right.
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Re: Trump- how low can he go?

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Durandal_1707 wrote:I'm pretty much a dyed-in-the-wool Democrat, but if you time-traveled Eisenhower to the present day, I'd consider voting for him. He wasn't perfect, as you say, but he did an awful lot of things right.
Well, I imagine Ike would be a bit behind the times on various civil rights issues, to put it mildly. Be he also seems like someone who had a measure of respect for the way the government and laws work, so I'm honestly not sure he'd be worse, even on those issues (which is where the most radical changes have probably taken place) than the majority of the contemporary Republican Party.
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Re: Trump- how low can he go?

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Well, my imagination is that his moderate, level-headed, rational demeanor would adapt to the current climate rather than launching some reactionary quest to go back to the 50s. Ike did make some progress in civil rights legislation in his time, after all (not as much as LBJ, but still). Maybe it's a fantasy, I dunno. Well, I mean, it is a fantasy, because I've already got time travel in it. But you know what I mean.

Basically I just want that sort of calm, rational, do what's best for the country instead of just the party attitude. It seems that, in the post-WWII era, we had that from presidents from both parties until LBJ and Nixon stuffed it up with Vietnam and Watergate. Can we ever go back?
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Re: Trump- how low can he go?

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Durandal_1707 wrote:Well, my imagination is that his moderate, level-headed, rational demeanor would adapt to the current climate rather than launching some reactionary quest to go back to the 50s. Ike did make some progress in civil rights legislation in his time, after all (not as much as LBJ, but still). Maybe it's a fantasy, I dunno. Well, I mean, it is a fantasy, because I've already got time travel in it. But you know what I mean.

Basically I just want that sort of calm, rational, do what's best for the country instead of just the party attitude. It seems that, in the post-WWII era, we had that from presidents from both parties until LBJ and Nixon stuffed it up with Vietnam and Watergate. Can we ever go back?
Likely not until the current Republican Party leadership is gone. Which realistically means "Until the baby boomers start dying of old age."

And in happier Trump-related news (not something I get to say often), breaking news is that Steve Bannon has been kicked off the National Security Council. :D
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Re: Trump- how low can he go?

Post by Durandal_1707 »

Surely to be replaced by someone equally terrible. Meh.
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