Politics of the British Isles

[PerrySimm]

Is it realistic to assume a re-vote would have different results? "No" wouldn't really mean anything more to the SNP any more than it means to the Parti Québecois; the issue seems at this stage to be perpetual. "Yes" would be ignored by May and possibly place Sturgeon at odds with Spain on EU accession. Either way, talked out of any meaning like so many statehood votes in Puerto Rico.

If on the other hand Sturgeon won a majority at Holyrood on more than 50% of the votes, explicitly campaigning on independence, there could be no clearer mandate. Calling a snap election is a far larger risk, though. The SNP has never yet collected such a margin.

[Fixer]

Theresa May has called for a snap election despite previously saying they would delay until 2020.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39629603

With current polling results this puts the Conservatives in a very strong position and allow them to put through their Brexit changes without the shadow cabinet blocking their efforts.
Labour's polls have collapsed under Corbyn and he's seen as unelectable by most.
The Lib Dems have been wallowing in the near irrelevance since their coalition in 2010.
UKIP's mandate has essentially been taken over by the tories, so expect them to fizzle away.

SNP's probably going to hold Scotland despite dropping approval, as the tories have been dead there for a couple of generations and Labour's no alternative. Northern Ireland I don't even want to hazard a guess. Wales I expect no significant shifts.

Big question is how the Brexit vote will change things. A vote for the Tories will be seen as a vote for Brexit. Likely the opposition parties will try and mobilise the young who did not vote in the referendum to try and get them into office on this single cause.

Since article 50 has already been declared what exactly this will achieve is difficult to say.

[TheNewTeddy]

my current projection

[T-L]

Being a bit generous to Labour there aren't you?

[PerrySimm]

Even if winning is out of the question, Corbyn can't possibly perform as badly as the poll numbers suggest. 15%, really? Labour could be lead by a silly face doodled in felt pen on a red balloon and get 20%.

I don't think polls are as accurate as they used to be, either. The polls predicted a Brexit-free Clinton Administration.

[The Romulan Republic]

Even if winning is out of the question, Corbyn can't possibly perform as badly as the poll numbers suggest. 15%, really? Labour could be lead by a silly face doodled in felt pen on a red balloon and get 20%.

I don't think polls are as accurate as they used to be, either. The polls predicted a Brexit-free Clinton Administration.

Not sure how they do it in Britain, but I remember that during the Democratic Primary in the last US election, I seem to recall that Bernie's surprise strength in some areas was blamed on polls being mainly done by land line phones, so mostly getting older voters.

Doubt that it explains Brexit, though, or Trump, since its mostly the older voters who would go for them. My guess is it was partly polsters being cautious about how they interpreted the data, because nobody in the mainstream could really quite believe that either Britain or the US would do something that stupidly self-destructive, though I can't say for sure.

[Fixer]

I'm sticking with Jonathan Pie's explanation of the polls being inaccurate.


youtu.be/GLG9g7BcjKs

Frankly the right's success has been the left's failure. No debates, labelling of people and not understanding that it's not enough to tell people the opposing side is evil, you actually have to be better than them.

[Karha of Honor]

I'm sticking with Jonathan Pie's explanation of the polls being inaccurate.


youtu.be/GLG9g7BcjKs

Frankly the right's success has been the left's failure. No debates, labelling of people and not understanding that it's not enough to tell people the opposing side is evil, you actually have to be better than them.

They do it because they lack belief. The socialist vision is dead and the best hope is a UBI that might make people feel miserable in the long term. It's like going from from Superman to a miserable superhero in Russia who can only ease the pain cause by the supervillains but he can never beat them.

[T-L]

Even if winning is out of the question, Corbyn can't possibly perform as badly as the poll numbers suggest. 15%, really? Labour could be lead by a silly face doodled in felt pen on a red balloon and get 20%.

I don't think polls are as accurate as they used to be, either. The polls predicted a Brexit-free Clinton Administration.

I think most of the big polling errors of the last few years have actually been reporting errors or journalistic errors, like with brexit, most polls showed that it was going to be very very close, with a slight almost marginal lead for remain, and the papers used that and said that it was a done deal for remain.

I might overstate how bad labour's situation is, but I think that for all the talk about how hostile the media has been against Corbyn, the torys have barely said anything about him. But now that the election is on they are going to unload everything they have on him, and he has provided decades worth of material for them to use.

[The Romulan Republic]

I'm sticking with Jonathan Pie's explanation of the polls being inaccurate.


youtu.be/GLG9g7BcjKs

Frankly the right's success has been the left's failure.

This is highly oversimplified, and is basically just a talking point for the Right and third partiers.

I would say that their are many factors, including:

Yes, incompetence and corruption from certain elements of the Left.

Reflexive backlash against the perceived "establishment", exacerbated by economic concerns.

Fear of terrorism/socialism.

Backlash from more conservative white people, particularly white men, who feel threatened by the increasing numbers and political influence of minorities and the increasing prominence of women in politics and culture.

And in America at least, to be blunt, the Right is good at rigging the game.

Also, another point which I'll get too shortly.

No debates,

Could you please clarify what you mean by that?

labelling of people

Again, could you please clarify?

Because when I see comments like this, a lot of the time its pretty thinly-veiled code for "How DARE those nasty SJWs call us bigots, just because we don't like (insert group here)?"

and not understanding that it's not enough to tell people the opposing side is evil, you actually have to be better than them.

Ah, the old false equivalency meme. Repeated so often regardless of circumstances that it has become a reflexive truism for the cynical, the apathetic, and third party crusaders who can't actually find a reason to get people to vote for them other than "the other parties are all the same, but we're different, honest".

All it does, of course, is legitimize the worst elements of politics by equating them with the best, and encourage people to either not vote (because it won't change anything) or vote for extremists (because the only thing that matters is how "anti-establishment" you are). If you ever wonder why Trump won, why an admitted sexual predator endorsed by multiple Klan leaders is now President of the United States, I think the single biggest reason is probably this.

I would not be exaggerating if I said that I consider this THE great political lie of our age.

They do it because they lack belief.

Yes, do enlighten us with your proclamations on how a diverse collection of political factions comprised of hundreds of millions of people all "lack belief".

The socialist vision is dead

"Left" does not and never did equal socialist.

and the best hope is a UBI that might make people feel miserable in the long term.

Or free them to pursue their real passions in life, rather than work at two jobs they hate because the alternative is not being able to feed and house their children.

Besides, something along the lines of UBI isn't going to be option if automation continues to eliminate jobs.

It's like going from from Superman to a miserable superhero in Russia who can only ease the pain cause by the supervillains but he can never beat them.

You... do know Russia isn't communist any more?

Its closer to state capitalism/fascism, I dare say.