Politics of the British Isles

[TGLS]

I'm sticking with Jonathan Pie's explanation of the polls being inaccurate.


youtu.be/GLG9g7BcjKs

Frankly the right's success has been the left's failure. No debates, labelling of people and not understanding that it's not enough to tell people the opposing side is evil, you actually have to be better than them.

Well first of all, what is wrong with that cameraman? Train the camera at the guy, don't do that weird zooming.
Second, the polls weren't wrong. They were about the only thing that was right, Clinton got a little more of the popular vote than Trump. Problem is that the popular vote is irrelevant.
The thing I can generally agree with is that the election was treated as a walk for Clinton when sense was pointing against it. Going for three terms in a row is hard enough as is. A weak candidate makes it even harder.

[PerrySimm]

I was musing about a snap election for the Scottish Parliament before. Not hard to see that May's call for a snap election might be pre-emptive in that respect as well.

As a Scotland strategy, it's a terrible risk. The Tories might finally claw a few seats out of Scotland again which would somewhat undermine the SNP's case for independence. Sturgeon is still pledging to proceed with the referendum regardless of the outcome. But the SNP is pretty much unable to also call a snap of its own now...

The Northern Ireland reaction has been muted so far, it seems, though if the March election is any indication, nationalists may come out with a slight majority of seats.

[Fixer]

I'm sticking with Jonathan Pie's explanation of the polls being inaccurate.


youtu.be/GLG9g7BcjKs

Frankly the right's success has been the left's failure.

This is highly oversimplified, and is basically just a talking point for the Right and third partiers.

I would say that their are many factors, including:

Yes, incompetence and corruption from certain elements of the Left.

Reflexive backlash against the perceived "establishment", exacerbated by economic concerns.

Fear of terrorism/socialism.

Backlash from more conservative white people, particularly white men, who feel threatened by the increasing numbers and political influence of minorities and the increasing prominence of women in politics and culture.

And in America at least, to be blunt, the Right is good at rigging the game.

Also, another point which I'll get too shortly.

No debates,

Could you please clarify what you mean by that?

labelling of people

Again, could you please clarify?

Because when I see comments like this, a lot of the time its pretty thinly-veiled code for "How DARE those nasty SJWs call us bigots, just because we don't like (insert group here)?"

and not understanding that it's not enough to tell people the opposing side is evil, you actually have to be better than them.

Ah, the old false equivalency meme. Repeated so often regardless of circumstances that it has become a reflexive truism for the cynical, the apathetic, and third party crusaders who can't actually find a reason to get people to vote for them other than "the other parties are all the same, but we're different, honest".

All it does, of course, is legitimize the worst elements of politics by equating them with the best, and encourage people to either not vote (because it won't change anything) or vote for extremists (because the only thing that matters is how "anti-establishment" you are). If you ever wonder why Trump won, why an admitted sexual predator endorsed by multiple Klan leaders is now President of the United States, I think the single biggest reason is probably this.

I would not be exaggerating if I said that I consider this THE great political lie of our age.

[/quote]

I can cover all of this with a single anecdote. Within the SWTOR guild we had a fairly balanced political viewpoints although people got to yelling at each other, occasionally we got some moderation in and people got along.

Decided to do a fun charity stream with a few of us in the teamspeak channel to cancel out the stress of the thing where we'd be making fun of both sides. Donations went to Movember and bowel cancer research. Good times were had.

Now the gist of it is, that one guy made me a bet that if Trump won, I would have to do this stream all the way to the end, which ended up being 10 hours burning the hell out of me, and if I did he'd donate $500. Which he did. However he donated anonymously.

Point being, he was a Trump supporter but didn't want to have his name tied to a google search on the donation list pretty much because of what you started saying up there. He would be called a KKK bigot racist for supporting Trump, and he didn't want people foaming at the mouth and causing him bother for having different political view, especially at work.

He's fairly moderate and voted Obama twice before. This isn't uncommon amongst the right leaning moderates I've spoken to as well. They don't pronounce their political views because the left extremists start yelling whatever words end with -ist and causing them bother. They think the left is downright nasty, and with all the "punch a nazi" nonsense that's sprung up of late, unhinged and violent.

It's no suprise that people are hiding their intention to vote until they hit the ballot box.

Well first of all, what is wrong with that cameraman? Train the camera at the guy, don't do that weird zooming.

Jonathan Pie's a comedian, but his thing is making clips of the his news reporter persona being animated and angry speaking his honest opinions and truth inbetween takes.

[Fixer]

And another slice of PIE:


youtu.be/rTDWd9-zqzc

[Karha of Honor]

They do it because they lack belief.

Yes, do enlighten us with your proclamations on how a diverse collection of political factions comprised of hundreds of millions of people all "lack belief".

The socialist vision is dead

"Left" does not and never did equal socialist.

and the best hope is a UBI that might make people feel miserable in the long term.

Or free them to pursue their real passions in life, rather than work at two jobs they hate because the alternative is not being able to feed and house their children.

Besides, something along the lines of UBI isn't going to be option if automation continues to eliminate jobs.

It's like going from from Superman to a miserable superhero in Russia who can only ease the pain cause by the supervillains but he can never beat them.

You... do know Russia isn't communist any more?

Its closer to state capitalism/fascism, I dare say.

Are there a 100 mil leftists in the US and UK combined?

What does left equal in that case. If a pro gay marriage person starts talking like Mises or RP he won't ever be considered a leftist.

What makes you sure the people paying in for the UBI won't be dicks about what these lower classes can an cannot do. can and cannot eat etc... It could be horrible an miserable long term. Also i am sceptical about this historically unprecedented experiment actually making people happy. You think there will be full automation and robot selling stuff to other robots? What ill be the option? Economies need consumers to keep going.

Do you understand atmosphere, mood and ethos?

[Bernkastel]

"What does left equal in that case. If a pro gay marriage person starts talking like Mises or RP he won't ever be considered a leftist."

While I'll let TRR give that a proper answer, I'll point out that "the left" is a very subjective thing. Plenty of European conservatives publicly support things like universal healthcare and a living wage, things that would have you be considered a member of the hard left in the US. I'll also remind you that the dominant faction in the Democratic Party establishment is that which supported Clinton, a person who once declared that a single payer healthcare system will never ever happen and had that meeting with Goldman Sachs in which she proposed open trade borders and lamented the demonisation of the rich. If that's socialist to you, then you're applying the word to such a broad degree that it has zero meaning outside of not being ultra right.

[The Romulan Republic]

They do it because they lack belief.

Yes, do enlighten us with your proclamations on how a diverse collection of political factions comprised of hundreds of millions of people all "lack belief".

The socialist vision is dead

"Left" does not and never did equal socialist.

and the best hope is a UBI that might make people feel miserable in the long term.

Or free them to pursue their real passions in life, rather than work at two jobs they hate because the alternative is not being able to feed and house their children.

Besides, something along the lines of UBI isn't going to be option if automation continues to eliminate jobs.

It's like going from from Superman to a miserable superhero in Russia who can only ease the pain cause by the supervillains but he can never beat them.

You... do know Russia isn't communist any more?

Its closer to state capitalism/fascism, I dare say.

Are there a 100 mil leftists in the US and UK combined?

Depends on how you define Leftist.

If you define it only as those who are outright socialist, maybe not. Probably not. Although Socialism is not the fringe boogeyman it once was in America (thank you Bernie Sanders, you most awesome of Senators ).

I would define "Leftist", more or less, as "Someone who believes in equality and respect regardless of race, gender, nationality, sexual orientation, etc.; believes their is still substantial work to be done on those issues; and believes that the government has a legitimate role to play in addressing economic inequality and ensuring the common prosperity."

Their are, of course, degrees of Leftist just as their are degrees of conservative/Right-wing.

What does left equal in that case. If a pro gay marriage person starts talking like Mises or RP he won't ever be considered a leftist.

Mises? RP?

From context, unless RP refers to Ron/Rand Paul, I'm afraid I'm not familiar with what you're talking about.

What makes you sure the people paying in for the UBI won't be dicks about what these lower classes can an cannot do. can and cannot eat etc...

Its called "legislation" and "the judiciary".

Any economic or political system has the potential for abuse. We address that by placing appropriate legislative and judicial safeguards in place, not by saying "Well, it could go wrong so we should just do nothing."

It could be horrible an miserable long term. Also i am sceptical about this historically unprecedented experiment actually making people happy. You think there will be full automation and robot selling stuff to other robots? What ill be the option? Economies need consumers to keep going.

This sounds an awful lot like an Appeal to Tradition Fallacy.

The fact that something is new is not, in and of itself, a compelling argument against it. And it seems to me that most of your arguments boil down to "Its new, and we don't know what might happen, so we shouldn't try it."

Keep in mind that a lot of Basic Income advocates talk about gradually bringing it in, doing test programs in certain areas, etc. This is not a problem that hasn't been thought of, or is impossible to address.

Yes, economies need consumers to keep running, but consumers need money to keep consuming. And therein lies the problem. Short-sighted companies are automating more and more jobs, thinking in terms of short-term gain, not realizing (or not caring) that they are eliminating their own customers long-term.

How far can that go before we start seeing 20, 40, 50% unemployment? You know, the kind of situation that leads to communist and/or fascist uprisings.

If you have a solution to that problem other than Basic Income, however, I'm all ears.

Do you understand atmosphere, mood and ethos?

Somewhat, yes.

I'm also not convinced that people in general are happier having to work long hours at minimum wage jobs to survive.

Edits: And to Fixer's point, yes, I am aware that not all Trump voters are irredeemably evil puppy-kickers. Some of them, I don't doubt, have very legitimate concerns about the economy and political corruption.

But they chose a God-awful way to express them.

Even if they are not themselves bigots, they made a choice which any informed person could see would benefit the agendas of bigots and authoritarians. So at best, their stance comes off as "I don't hate you and want to oppress you, but I'm willing to throw your civil liberties under the bus for the things I do care about."

I'll add that the same goes for Brexit, to bring this back to British politics.

And that if you voted for either to try to improve your economic lot, or get a corrupt establishment out, well, I'm sorry to say that you were deceived. The staggeringly corrupt people are still in power (more so than before, at least in the US), and the Middle Class and Working Class are going to get shafted hard.

[Fixer]

Edits: And to Fixer's point, yes, I am aware that not all Trump voters are irredeemably evil puppy-kickers. Some of them, I don't doubt, have very legitimate concerns about the economy and political corruption.

But they chose a God-awful way to express them.

Even if they are not themselves bigots, they made a choice which any informed person could see would benefit the agendas of bigots and authoritarians. So at best, their stance comes off as "I don't hate you and want to oppress you, but I'm willing to throw your civil liberties under the bus for the things I do care about."

I'll add that the same goes for Brexit, to bring this back to British politics.

And that if you voted for either to try to improve your economic lot, or get a corrupt establishment out, well, I'm sorry to say that you were deceived. The staggeringly corrupt people are still in power (more so than before, at least in the US), and the Middle Class and Working Class are going to get shafted hard.

I'd first say, how are people supposed to express their desire for change when given no-other alternatives. Regardless of what you think about the outcome of the election it has shown that there are a large number of people that want to have their voices heard and will do so at the ballot box.

Unfortunately I don't think the right lesson has been learned. Instead of listening to them, the reaction has been to double down on previous failing tactics and tell them they should have been silent. I'd also like to remind everyone that the dictionary definition of bigot is "a person who is intolerant towards those holding different opinions.".

There's be a lot of shouting and accusations but very little in the way of resolving the issues from the opposition. People will vote for whoever they think will listen, and the bar set by both sides has been set so very, very low.

As for authoritarianism, this has been one of the main points for opposing the E.U. The system is run by an unelected commission that dictates the new rules and policies to the MEPs, with the bureaucracy being geared to pushing those policies through with no way to repeal once implemented.

[The Romulan Republic]

I'd first say, how are people supposed to express their desire for change when given no-other alternatives. Regardless of what you think about the outcome of the election it has shown that there are a large number of people that want to have their voices heard and will do so at the ballot box.

Well, honestly, as frustrating as it may be, their are worse things than the 2016 status quo. Like, arguably, most of human history, for example.

Demanding change of any kind, at any cost, shows a terrible short-sightedness. Change is not only necessary but inevitable, but not all change is good. Their are worse possible worlds than the one that we live in.

I support reform, but not any change without regard for the price. If one wants to not merely break the status quo, but replace it with something better, one must choose their battles and their tactics carefully.

Unfortunately I don't think the right lesson has been learned. Instead of listening to them, the reaction has been to double down on previous failing tactics and tell them they should have been silent. I'd also like to remind everyone that the dictionary definition of bigot is "a person who is intolerant towards those holding different opinions.".

This is the message being pushed by the Right and frustrated progressives alike to some extent, I think, and particularly by a lot of third party people, for obvious self-interested reasons.

I don't think that its entirely fair, however. Well, maybe in Britain- its the one major western nation that actually seems to be arguably more politically dysfunctional than America right now. But in the US, the Democrats have been shifting towards a more progressive economic policy. Not as quickly as many would like, but things that were previously fringe positions (like 15 an hour minimum wage and Universal Medicare) are now gaining traction.

Keep in mind: Bernie Sanders is quite possibly the most popular politician in America. Who would have thought it possible, two years ago? Socialism is no longer such a bogey man, at least with the younger generations. And the progressive Left is likely to gain more and more influence in coming years due to demographic shifts, unless too many progressives just give up and either quit, or start turning on fellow Leftists for not being ideologically "pure" or radical enough.

I don't think, however, that the lesson the Left needs to learn is that we need to be more respectful of racists'/misogynists'/xenophobes' views. That may be a "lesson" that the Alt. Right wants us to learn, but it is neither morally right to sacrifice our support for equality and justice to assuage the insecurities of the prejudiced, nor pragmatic to risk alienating our support among women and minorities and the youth vote in exchange for a few more Centrist middle class white voters. Apologies if that sounds overly blunt, but its my honest assessment of the situation.

People have the right to be prejudiced, and express those views (as long as they are not inciting criminal acts). However, they do not have the right to be immune to criticism or societal backlash for those views, because that would infringe on the other side's free speech rights.

Though I would agree that, as frustrating as it is, it may sometimes (at least when conversing with those whose prejudice is more a matter of thoughtlessness or ignorance than malice or extremism) be better to make the effort to reach out and make our case, rather than simply condemning.

There's be a lot of shouting and accusations but very little in the way of resolving the issues from the opposition. People will vote for whoever they think will listen, and the bar set by both sides has been set so very, very low.

At least the Left (even the Centre Left), by and large, isn't actively hostile to anyone who's not a rich man.

As for authoritarianism, this has been one of the main points for opposing the E.U. The system is run by an unelected commission that dictates the new rules and policies to the MEPs, with the bureaucracy being geared to pushing those policies through with no way to repeal once implemented.

To me, that is an argument for internal reform of the EU, not dissolving it without regard for the social or economic consequences.

There's also no denying that a large part of the push for Brexit was motivated by outright xenophobia, though I think that the xenophobes also successfully exploited legitimate concerns, as they did in the US, to convince people to vote against their interests and the interests of their fellow citizens.

[Fixer]

You mention alternate ways to have change and Bernie sanders.

Yet, you as a Bernie Sanders supporter, are a woman hating Bernie Bro. You need to apologise for all misogynist abuse you and all your fellow supporters sent Hillary Clinton.

TRR. Why are you the hatred of all women?

It's no surprise that many Bernie supporters did not vote Clinton in the end having been demonised in such a manner, and the realisation that the DNC rigged their election as well turned people off.

This entire article is quite prophetic, especially the comments.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... ry-clinton

I don't think, however, that the lesson the Left needs to learn is that we need to be more respectful of racists'/misogynists'/xenophobes' views.

No, the lesson the left needs to learn is to stop calling all their opposition racist / misogynist / xenophobic and using every smear tactic in the book. It doesn't work anymore, people are onto the game now and it doesn't turn people to your side. It turns them against you. Until the left stops name calling and starts dealing with concerns instead of ignoring them they're going to continue falling into irrelevance.

At least the Left (even the Centre Left), by and large, isn't actively hostile to anyone who's not a rich man.

Yet all the accusations, the riots, the calls for violence are coming from the left. Not a small insignificant minority to tar the whole with either, the "punch a nazi" meme was supported by the mainstream. That seems to be escalating still.

In the UK, Corbyn's militant Trotsky supporters have been violent against Labour MPs that have spoken out against him. MP Jess Phillips was threatened and had a brick thrown through her window. Others had their cars torched and property damaged.

To me, that is an argument for internal reform of the EU, not dissolving it without regard for the social or economic consequences.

There's also no denying that a large part of the push for Brexit was motivated by outright xenophobia, though I think that the xenophobes also successfully exploited legitimate concerns, as they did in the US, to convince people to vote against their interests and the interests of their fellow citizens.

There had been several attempts to reform the E.U. They failed. In fact the constantly inability to change anything in the E.U. system and lack of accountability are major contributors to the reasons for leaving. Put it to Juncker, the head of the E.U. Commission, the lone choice for Commission leader, who personally picked the rest of the Commission, who create all the laws the E.U. have to abide by, who said no reforms.

As to your statement "No denying that a large part of the push for Brexit was outright Xenophobia.". Quantify that. How large, what do you class as Xenophobia? If you can't, then why can't I say Xenophobia was a negligible and insignificant part of the Brexit vote.
A secret ballot, it's a matter of opinion. That makes it very easy to dismiss as a statement.

What is a statement of fact is that the opinion polls and the result were 5-7 points out. That's a huge upset. A lot of people who were polled concealed their voting intention until they hit the ballot sheet.