International Elections and Politics (no US/UK)

[Fixer]

First part of the French election is in.
It's Macron Vs. Le-Pen. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39686993

Macron seems to have been everyone's second choice thanks to his centrist position. Even Le-Pen voters. In my opinion this would give him the advantage, but polls are still too close to call.

[TGLS]

You don't like the second round polls?

[Fixer]

Thanks for those

Yep. First round showed 1% difference. Second round 24%

[Admiral X]

I wouldn't be surprised if Le Pen still manages to get it.

[Yerushalmi]

When was the last time you saw a polling error that covered a 24% margin?

[The Romulan Republic]

When was the last time you saw a polling error that covered a 24% margin?

Yeah.

That, and from what I hear, all the other major parties have thrown in behind Macron. So unless they have a truly massive number of Bernie or Bust analogues who rebel against their parties' leadership because their candidate of choice didn't win, or Russia rigs it... La Pen ought to lose, thank God.

That said, I would hope her opponents in France would learn from the Brexit and Trump debacles and not take things for granted. We don't need to lose another country to Russian-backed Neo-Fascists.

[Admiral X]

When was the last time you saw a polling error that covered a 24% margin?

Pretty sure the one for the US election was actually bigger than that. Of course the actual win was because of how our electoral system works (so the lower population states aren't completely lead about by the more populous one), but the popular election wasn't the complete landslide the polls that came out just before the election indicated.

And given the way all the other candidates are going with "move along now, nothing to see here" when it comes to the concerns of a very large portion of the population (who are being brushed off as nothing more than racists, and gee, where have I seen that before), so I can still see Le Pen pulling off a win because of that.

[PerrySimm]

It's hard not to vote when it's a Sunday, everything but the polls are closed, and the future of Europe is on the line.

I doubt very much that there'd be many who voted for Hamon or Mélenchon willing to vote for anyone but Macron. Essentially, Marine would have to find a path to convince every Fillion voter that she's not the next Pétain, plus top it off with more than half of the folks that stayed home. Either that or goad Macron voters into staying home by performing a couple pratfalls.

I'm not sure that trick is going to work in this case. While France might be convinced to vote Germany off the island, they're not generally known to do anything that might be seen as following the British example...

[The Romulan Republic]

When was the last time you saw a polling error that covered a 24% margin?

Pretty sure the one for the US election was actually bigger than that. Of course the actual win was because of how our electoral system works (so the lower population states aren't completely lead about by the more populous one), but the popular election wasn't the complete landslide the polls that came out just before the election indicated.

And given the way all the other candidates are going with "move along now, nothing to see here" when it comes to the concerns of a very large portion of the population (who are being brushed off as nothing more than racists, and gee, where have I seen that before), so I can still see Le Pen pulling off a win because of that.

Anyone who votes for Trump or La Penn and is aware of their positions is, by definition, if not actively hostile towards minorities, at least willing to throw them under the bus for the things that they do care about.

[Admiral X]

Sure, keep going with that. That totally didn't turn people against the Democrats in the last election at all.