Brexit Rambles

[clearspira]

I really doubt the UK would be facing food shortages. Though honestly at this point both sides need to put on their big boy shorts and learn to compromise with each other instead of being so hard-nosed.

Project Fear has been running for two years now with BS like ration cards. No deal would be terrible, but it won't be Mad Max ffs.

[Admiral X]

UK would still come out on top in "no deal." But the fact that the EU fears it so much is a reason why it should be used as a bargaining chip.

[Madner Kami]

UK would still come out on top in "no deal." But the fact that the EU fears it so much is a reason why it should be used as a bargaining chip.

There's good reason to fear a No Deal for both sides and both would be smarter not to use it as a bargaining chip or a means to put pressure onto the other partner. The food shortages, for example, can only be avoided by temporarily suspending any border controls on the UK's side, given how much is transported into the UK that would need to be inspected based on international rules and regulations in a No Deal scenario and that the UK currently neither has the manpower nor the infrastructure to handle.

I do have to wonder though, what do you consider as "coming out on top" in a No Deal scenario? I'd really like someone on the pro No Deal side of the conflict to already quantify that, before the goal posts are predictably getting shifted down the line. The BrExit-camp already had it's moment of "trying to nail the pudding on the wall", when the BrExit-votum actually happened and suddenly all the pro-BrExiters resigned or acknowledged that they had no idea what the fuck they are going to do. They don't deserve to get away like that again.

Also, I have to quote myself here:

P.S.: I found this astute commentary under one of Grey's BrExit-videos and just wanted to share it, because it nicely condenses what's actually going on on the Island:

Schmidt54

The UK's "demands" are problematic because the country is far from being politically internally unified; the UK has a crisis of leadership that is being projected into foreign policy (classical move like it is the year 1900 or what). May cannot broker any kind of deal because either the UK parliament rejects her or the EU does or both do. It is the UK who deadlocked itself and instead of taking a step back, they blame anyone but their internal problems.

There's this grave misunderstanding, that BrExit is actually about the UK not wanting to be in the EU. It may be the case for the people who actually voted to leave, but everyone else is having completely different stakes in this matter. The biggest disconnect is between the voters and the UK's politicians, for example. As the above quote points out, the political class just does not want to leave, but did, by the time of this writing, do exactly what you proposed, using a No Deal as a method of excerting pressure, but not pressure onto the EU, but pressure onto themselves.
1) Cameron used BrExit as a means to consolidate power for the conservative party and failed.
2) UKIP used BrExit as a means to put pressure onto the whole political class in order to gain more power by posing themselves as the ultimate alternative for both the Conservatives and Labour. They failed spectacularly, ironically by winning and getting exactly what they supposedly wanted.
3) May, in 2017, tried to consolidate conservative power again in 2017, by calling an early general election. She failed.
4) May in December 2018, tried to consolidate power inside the Conservative party, via a vote of no confidence. She won this one, but it still didn't help her outside her own party.
5) The parliamentary no confidence vote in January 2019 was won by May, but only by a tiny margin, which again, isn't helping her in any way and was probably worse than a no confidence result, just like the general elections in 2017.
6) The BrExit-Deal votes in parliament in January and February 2019 resulted in May being basically publically kicked in the arse. Twice. Undermining her position.
7) Jeremy Corbin and Labour along with him is basically going to vote against anything that May can bring forward. They are having their little powerplay, similar to UKIP two years ago, in order to position themselves as a legitimate alternative. They are literally playing the same game of dice that UKIP did and it's hard to see a Win-scenario for them in that game, because even if they succeed at some point down the line and get into the position of leadership, it will either be in a No-Deal Post-BrExit or watered-down post Deal-BrExit (probably the best scenario for them) or they will actually have to lead the dealings about a BrExit and, predictably fail like every single fucking idiot before them, because they just have no concept and can't keep their own promises or positions, without pulling out the rug under their own feet.

The whole thing is a game of headless chicken run. The BrExit-voters have an issue with the EU, some concerns are sensible and I wholeheartedly support these (e.g. the EU being undemocratic at the core), others not so much. But either way, they were lead into playing dice with the future of the UK. The NoBrExit-voters may or may not have issues with the EU, but see what a BrExit at all costs will actually cost them. Meanwhile, the entire political establishment of the UK locked themselves in an endless internal powerplay, that literally has no win-condition.

[Draco Dracul]

I really doubt the UK would be facing food shortages. Though honestly at this point both sides need to put on their big boy shorts and learn to compromise with each other instead of being so hard-nosed.

The funny thing is that we're approaching a No Deal Brexit mostly because the UK can't even compromise with itself as it's burned well over a year trying to negotiate the simplest part of Brexit, the backstop because the UK has goals that are incompatible with each other. This is because Brexit hardliners don't want to stay in the the customs union, but anything other than staying in the customs union will dissolve the coalition government and also risk restarting the Troubles.

Aside from that, the EU has every reason to be hard nosed because they are in the stronger position due to being a larger economy than the UK on it's own, and long term getting industries that are in the UK because it's traditionally been the gateway to Europe to move to the continent, most notably banking. The staggering difference in size means even if the EU is hurt more in absolute terms, it retaliative terms the UK is going to be hit much harder.

I really doubt the UK would be facing food shortages. Though honestly at this point both sides need to put on their big boy shorts and learn to compromise with each other instead of being so hard-nosed.

Project Fear has been running for two years now with BS like ration cards. No deal would be terrible, but it won't be Mad Max ffs.

There will be food shortages and it will be Mad Max are two very different things. My question is that if the UK has no trade agreements (which it doesn't due to all it's current trade agreements being through it's EU status) and it can't feed itself (as a net importer of food) how will it not face food shortages?

[clearspira]

The UK is the 6th or 7th biggest economy (I forget which). The UK crashing will seriously damage the world economy. In short - it is not in their interest to starve us.

[Draco Dracul]

The UK is the 6th or 7th biggest economy (I forget which). The UK crashing will seriously damage the world economy. In short - it is not in their interest to starve us.

It's not, but it's even more not in their interest to give you preferential treatment either. Especially since A) you guys have been acting like you're still the Empire at its height, B) you getting your face beat in by your folly serves as a good way to cool leavers in other countries, C) letting you eat your cake and have it too seriously undermines the value of EU membership. And quite frankly Admiral X's plan of using No Deal Brexit as leverage is roughly equivalent to threatening to blow your brain out because your blood will ruin the other guys expensive suit.

[G-Man]

The problem for the EU is that what it wants is for the UK to accept a deal that in effect keeps it in the EU without voting rights. That is because if Brexit is delayed, the EU will get a large number of MEPs from the Brexit Party, further increasing the populist percentage in the government.

[Draco Dracul]

The problem for the EU is that what it wants is for the UK to accept a deal that in effect keeps it in the EU without voting rights. That is because if Brexit is delayed, the EU will get a large number of MEPs from the Brexit Party, further increasing the populist percentage in the government.

I mean the eternal problem with Leave was that either the UK takes a soft Brexit and might as well have never left the EU in the first place or it takes a hard Brexit and devastates itself because it's largest industry, banking, was built on being the gateway to Europe and what the "No Deal is better than a bad deal" morons don't seem to realize is that No Deal means the hardest of hard Brexits. The EU doesn't need a deal to stop the UK from participating in the elections, because the UK will crash out of the EU at the end of the month unless they negotiate an extension, which will almost certainly come with preconditions (likely forfeiting the right to withdraw Article 50 unilaterally), or withdraw Article 50, which will break the Conservative party.

[clearspira]

As I understand it, there is a vote today on PM May's deal. If it fails then tomorrow will be a vote to stop no deal and then a vote to prolong Brexit. Crashing out is no longer going to happen. We are heading for either an election or a 2nd ref imo. Either one according to polls is neck and neck in terms of result.

I think if Brexit is stopped then politics will get metaphorically bloody in the coming years. And that includes a Trump style reactionary leader.

[Draco Dracul]

As I understand it, there is a vote today on PM May's deal. If it fails then tomorrow will be a vote to stop no deal and then a vote to prolong Brexit. Crashing out is no longer going to happen. We are heading for either an election or a 2nd ref imo. Either one according to polls is neck and neck in terms of result.

I think if Brexit is stopped then politics will get metaphorically bloody in the coming years. And that includes a Trump style reactionary leader.

Which as an outsider is going to be very, very funny to watch. Electing a complete fucking moron because the people in charge wouldn't let the country blow it's brains out. Personally, I think you guys are still going to wind up crashing out, if not at the end of the month then when the extension expires because you guys are asking for thing the EU cannot give without compromising what makes the EU exist (namely the four freedoms).