Brexit Rambles

[Admiral X]

A No Deal Brexit would give the UK everything it wanted in terms of cutting ties with the corrupt EU government that gave it very little voice in how their own country was governed. The crap about food shortages is just fear mongering. You guys seem to be forgetting that the whole rest of the world exists and while your government is arguing over whether to cut ties or become a vassal state to the EU, they should be making a trade deal with the US since the EU seems to be more interested in punishing them for daring to vote to leave to begin with.

[Draco Dracul]

A No Deal Brexit would give the UK everything it wanted in terms of cutting ties with the corrupt EU government that gave it very little voice in how their own country was governed. The crap about food shortages is just fear mongering. You guys seem to be forgetting that the whole rest of the world exists and while your government is arguing over whether to cut ties or become a vassal state to the EU, they should be making a trade deal with the US since the EU seems to be more interested in punishing them for daring to vote to leave to begin with.

Yes, other nations exist. They are A) much further from the UK than the EU is, B) do not have existing with the UK as the UK's existing trade agreements are through the EU, and C) will be negotiating from a stronger position than when they made the current trade agreements that the UK operates under as the UK on it's own has significantly less bargaining power than the EU does. The US government has already proposed a FTA agreement that is basically predatory in nature.

[Madner Kami]

And the BrExit-Deal was rebuked again. Tomorrow then the vote on whether the parliament wants a No Deal or not and, if not, then thursday the vote on whether the UK wants to request time for further negotiations.

UK: "Oh hey! Look! A foot!"
Pistol: *Blam*
UK: "Ouch! Oh hey! Look! Another foot!"
Pistol: *Blam*
UK: "Ouch!"
...

[clearspira]

As I understand it, there is a vote today on PM May's deal. If it fails then tomorrow will be a vote to stop no deal and then a vote to prolong Brexit. Crashing out is no longer going to happen. We are heading for either an election or a 2nd ref imo. Either one according to polls is neck and neck in terms of result.

I think if Brexit is stopped then politics will get metaphorically bloody in the coming years. And that includes a Trump style reactionary leader.

Which as an outsider is going to be very, very funny to watch. Electing a complete fucking moron because the people in charge wouldn't let the country blow it's brains out. Personally, I think you guys are still going to wind up crashing out, if not at the end of the month then when the extension expires because you guys are asking for thing the EU cannot give without compromising what makes the EU exist (namely the four freedoms).

That is one interpretation. Mine is that the EU is worried about Brexit succeeding so they have done everything to thwart it. The far right is up EVERYWHERE in the EU. Every election has a pro-leave candidate near the top. Its own yard is messier than people like to admit.

[LittleRaven]

The EU is definitely looking at a rough ride coming up, and they definitely do NOT want Brexit to succeed. If Britain survives Brexit as anything short of a horror show, then Italy and Greece are going to start wondering if they can possibly get out from under Brussels as well. Contagion is a very real threat here. I were invested in the EU, I would want London to be a smoking crater by the time Brexit is over.

That said, Brexit will most definitely be painful for Britain. Yes, there are other countries, including the US, but Britain is just 40 miles from France and...somewhat farther from the US. The relationships are not going to be interchangeable.

[Fuzzy Necromancer]

Also the US and the UK have LOTS of incompatable food safety regulations.

[Darth Wedgius]

Also the US and the UK have LOTS of incompatable food safety regulations.

For what it's worth, I'm not too worried about that. If it looks like people are going to be hungry, even the UK can suspend some regulations on food for a few years to get regulations aligned.

[Fuzzy Necromancer]

Well yeah, I guess if you eat food with marmite on it and like your vegetables and meat boiled to the same shade of grey, a little change in whether you wash eggs isn't such a big deal.

[G-Man]

The problem for the EU is that what it wants is for the UK to accept a deal that in effect keeps it in the EU without voting rights. That is because if Brexit is delayed, the EU will get a large number of MEPs from the Brexit Party, further increasing the populist percentage in the government.

I mean the eternal problem with Leave was that either the UK takes a soft Brexit and might as well have never left the EU in the first place or it takes a hard Brexit and devastates itself because it's largest industry, banking, was built on being the gateway to Europe and what the "No Deal is better than a bad deal" morons don't seem to realize is that No Deal means the hardest of hard Brexits. The EU doesn't need a deal to stop the UK from participating in the elections, because the UK will crash out of the EU at the end of the month unless they negotiate an extension, which will almost certainly come with preconditions (likely forfeiting the right to withdraw Article 50 unilaterally), or withdraw Article 50, which will break the Conservative party.

No, it does not need a deal to stop the UK from participating in elections, but it does not really want the UK to leave. My point is that the EU does not want the UK to leave but it also does not want to get a bunch of British populists in the European Parliament. So it wants to get a deal that basically makes the UK a non-voting EU member.

The EU is desperate for a deal because it does not want a hard Brexit but also does not want to extend the deadline.

[G-Man]

As I understand it, there is a vote today on PM May's deal. If it fails then tomorrow will be a vote to stop no deal and then a vote to prolong Brexit. Crashing out is no longer going to happen. We are heading for either an election or a 2nd ref imo. Either one according to polls is neck and neck in terms of result.

I think if Brexit is stopped then politics will get metaphorically bloody in the coming years. And that includes a Trump style reactionary leader.

Which as an outsider is going to be very, very funny to watch. Electing a complete fucking moron because the people in charge wouldn't let the country blow it's brains out. Personally, I think you guys are still going to wind up crashing out, if not at the end of the month then when the extension expires because you guys are asking for thing the EU cannot give without compromising what makes the EU exist (namely the four freedoms).

Unfortunately, staying in the EU means that Britain loses its sovereignty unless the EU changes. The only alternative to Brexit that does not destroy the UK is that the UK stays in the EU, but basically pulls a Hungary and ignores the EU whenever it disagrees with it.