Brexit Rambles

[clearspira]

Also the US and the UK have LOTS of incompatable food safety regulations.

For what it's worth, I'm not too worried about that. If it looks like people are going to be hungry, even the UK can suspend some regulations on food for a few years to get regulations aligned.

The biggest difference I am aware of is that you wash your eggs in chlorine which is very dangerous as it can remove the protective coating. We sell our eggs with remnants of poo and feathers on them as that is actually safer (not a joke).

[Draco Dracul]

The problem for the EU is that what it wants is for the UK to accept a deal that in effect keeps it in the EU without voting rights. That is because if Brexit is delayed, the EU will get a large number of MEPs from the Brexit Party, further increasing the populist percentage in the government.

I mean the eternal problem with Leave was that either the UK takes a soft Brexit and might as well have never left the EU in the first place or it takes a hard Brexit and devastates itself because it's largest industry, banking, was built on being the gateway to Europe and what the "No Deal is better than a bad deal" morons don't seem to realize is that No Deal means the hardest of hard Brexits. The EU doesn't need a deal to stop the UK from participating in the elections, because the UK will crash out of the EU at the end of the month unless they negotiate an extension, which will almost certainly come with preconditions (likely forfeiting the right to withdraw Article 50 unilaterally), or withdraw Article 50, which will break the Conservative party.

No, it does not need a deal to stop the UK from participating in elections, but it does not really want the UK to leave. My point is that the EU does not want the UK to leave but it also does not want to get a bunch of British populists in the European Parliament. So it wants to get a deal that basically makes the UK a non-voting EU member.

The EU is desperate for a deal because it does not want a hard Brexit but also does not want to extend the deadline.

I don't think you know how desperate people act when making a deal. In general desperate people will undercut their own position to with sweetheart offers to make sure the other party signs. The deal the EU sent out, with the ultimatum that they would not do further negotiation, is pretty much the exact opposite of that.

As I understand it, there is a vote today on PM May's deal. If it fails then tomorrow will be a vote to stop no deal and then a vote to prolong Brexit. Crashing out is no longer going to happen. We are heading for either an election or a 2nd ref imo. Either one according to polls is neck and neck in terms of result.

I think if Brexit is stopped then politics will get metaphorically bloody in the coming years. And that includes a Trump style reactionary leader.

Which as an outsider is going to be very, very funny to watch. Electing a complete fucking moron because the people in charge wouldn't let the country blow it's brains out. Personally, I think you guys are still going to wind up crashing out, if not at the end of the month then when the extension expires because you guys are asking for thing the EU cannot give without compromising what makes the EU exist (namely the four freedoms).

Unfortunately, staying in the EU means that Britain loses its sovereignty unless the EU changes. The only alternative to Brexit that does not destroy the UK is that the UK stays in the EU, but basically pulls a Hungary and ignores the EU whenever it disagrees with it.

Inside the EU the UK could be a powerful mover and shaker if they accept their status as part of the EU due to their large economy and population. Out side the EU they get to decide if they want to be a vassal of the EU or if they want to be a vassal of the United States.

Edit: At this point it looks like the only options are withdraw Article 50 or No Deal as Italy has declared it will vote against extending the deal, and the extension must be granted by a unanimous vote.

[Darth Wedgius]

Inside the EU the UK could be a powerful mover and shaker if they accept their status as part of the EU due to their large economy and population. Out side the EU they get to decide if they want to be a vassal of the EU or if they want to be a vassal of the United States.

How would the UK be forced to become a vassal of the EU or US if it Brexits?

[Darth Wedgius]

Also the US and the UK have LOTS of incompatable food safety regulations.

For what it's worth, I'm not too worried about that. If it looks like people are going to be hungry, even the UK can suspend some regulations on food for a few years to get regulations aligned.

The biggest difference I am aware of is that you wash your eggs in chlorine which is very dangerous as it can remove the protective coating. We sell our eggs with remnants of poo and feathers on them as that is actually safer (not a joke).

It's why we refrigerate our eggs; YouTube actually educated at least one person at least one time.

[Draco Dracul]

Inside the EU the UK could be a powerful mover and shaker if they accept their status as part of the EU due to their large economy and population. Out side the EU they get to decide if they want to be a vassal of the EU or if they want to be a vassal of the United States.

How would the UK be forced to become a vassal of the EU or US if it Brexits?

Because those two parties have significant leverage over the UK due to their close proximity and shared language respectively, and the UK has the small issue of being a net importer of food and lacks domestic production of important medications like insulin.

[Darth Wedgius]

Inside the EU the UK could be a powerful mover and shaker if they accept their status as part of the EU due to their large economy and population. Out side the EU they get to decide if they want to be a vassal of the EU or if they want to be a vassal of the United States.

How would the UK be forced to become a vassal of the EU or US if it Brexits?

Because those two parties have significant leverage over the UK due to their close proximity and shared language respectively, and the UK has the small issue of being a net importer of food and lacks domestic production of important medications like insulin.

There are many net importers of food who seem to have no problem saying "no" to anybody, such as Russia and China, and I doubt it's beyond the UK to produce those medications.
And I'm pretty sure the U.S. will sell food to the UK without controlling its immigration policy or how it labels its produce.

[Draco Dracul]

Inside the EU the UK could be a powerful mover and shaker if they accept their status as part of the EU due to their large economy and population. Out side the EU they get to decide if they want to be a vassal of the EU or if they want to be a vassal of the United States.

How would the UK be forced to become a vassal of the EU or US if it Brexits?

Because those two parties have significant leverage over the UK due to their close proximity and shared language respectively, and the UK has the small issue of being a net importer of food and lacks domestic production of important medications like insulin.

There are many net importers of food who seem to have no problem saying "no" to anybody, such as Russia and China, and I doubt it's beyond the UK to produce those medications.
And I'm pretty sure the U.S. will sell food to the UK without controlling its immigration policy or how it labels its produce.

It's not beyond them, but the question is how many people are they willing to let die between now and when they can have such facilities operating?

Also China imports food, but is food secure without imports, the UK is not. China also has existing trade agreements with other countries, one the UK leaves the EU, it won't. You can actual tell that some in the UK have realized this as the current plan in the event of a No-Deal exit involves zeroing most of their current tariffs.

[Darth Wedgius]

Inside the EU the UK could be a powerful mover and shaker if they accept their status as part of the EU due to their large economy and population. Out side the EU they get to decide if they want to be a vassal of the EU or if they want to be a vassal of the United States.

How would the UK be forced to become a vassal of the EU or US if it Brexits?

Because those two parties have significant leverage over the UK due to their close proximity and shared language respectively, and the UK has the small issue of being a net importer of food and lacks domestic production of important medications like insulin.

There are many net importers of food who seem to have no problem saying "no" to anybody, such as Russia and China, and I doubt it's beyond the UK to produce those medications.
And I'm pretty sure the U.S. will sell food to the UK without controlling its immigration policy or how it labels its produce.

It's not beyond them, but the question is how many people are they willing to let die between now and when they can have such facilities operating?

Also China imports food, but is food secure without imports, the UK is not. China also has existing trade agreements with other countries, one the UK leaves the EU, it won't. You can actual tell that some in the UK have realized this as the current plan in the event of a No-Deal exit involves zeroing most of their current tariffs.

The UK can import medicine for a while without becoming a vassal. The same goes for food, even if it has to import food indefinitely. If one exporter of food or medicine demands the same kind of control over the UK that the EU had, the UK can go elsewhere for food. And I can't think of a reason the US (for example) would try to exert that kind of control over the UK; it didn't before the EU existed.

[Draco Dracul]

Inside the EU the UK could be a powerful mover and shaker if they accept their status as part of the EU due to their large economy and population. Out side the EU they get to decide if they want to be a vassal of the EU or if they want to be a vassal of the United States.

How would the UK be forced to become a vassal of the EU or US if it Brexits?

Because those two parties have significant leverage over the UK due to their close proximity and shared language respectively, and the UK has the small issue of being a net importer of food and lacks domestic production of important medications like insulin.

There are many net importers of food who seem to have no problem saying "no" to anybody, such as Russia and China, and I doubt it's beyond the UK to produce those medications.
And I'm pretty sure the U.S. will sell food to the UK without controlling its immigration policy or how it labels its produce.

It's not beyond them, but the question is how many people are they willing to let die between now and when they can have such facilities operating?

Also China imports food, but is food secure without imports, the UK is not. China also has existing trade agreements with other countries, one the UK leaves the EU, it won't. You can actual tell that some in the UK have realized this as the current plan in the event of a No-Deal exit involves zeroing most of their current tariffs.

The UK can import medicine for a while without becoming a vassal. The same goes for food, even if it has to import food indefinitely. If one exporter of food or medicine demands the same kind of control over the UK that the EU had, the UK can go elsewhere for food. And I can't think of a reason the US (for example) would try to exert that kind of control over the UK; it didn't before the EU existed.

Not really because the UK will be over a barrel allowing the other side to dictate the terms of any trade deal. Prior to January 2017 the head of the US wasn't a petty man that sees politics and trade as a zero sum game.

[Darth Wedgius]

Inside the EU the UK could be a powerful mover and shaker if they accept their status as part of the EU due to their large economy and population. Out side the EU they get to decide if they want to be a vassal of the EU or if they want to be a vassal of the United States.

How would the UK be forced to become a vassal of the EU or US if it Brexits?

Because those two parties have significant leverage over the UK due to their close proximity and shared language respectively, and the UK has the small issue of being a net importer of food and lacks domestic production of important medications like insulin.

There are many net importers of food who seem to have no problem saying "no" to anybody, such as Russia and China, and I doubt it's beyond the UK to produce those medications.
And I'm pretty sure the U.S. will sell food to the UK without controlling its immigration policy or how it labels its produce.

It's not beyond them, but the question is how many people are they willing to let die between now and when they can have such facilities operating?

Also China imports food, but is food secure without imports, the UK is not. China also has existing trade agreements with other countries, one the UK leaves the EU, it won't. You can actual tell that some in the UK have realized this as the current plan in the event of a No-Deal exit involves zeroing most of their current tariffs.

The UK can import medicine for a while without becoming a vassal. The same goes for food, even if it has to import food indefinitely. If one exporter of food or medicine demands the same kind of control over the UK that the EU had, the UK can go elsewhere for food. And I can't think of a reason the US (for example) would try to exert that kind of control over the UK; it didn't before the EU existed.

Not really because the UK will be over a barrel allowing the other side to dictate the terms of any trade deal. Prior to January 2017 the head of the US wasn't a petty man that sees politics and trade as a zero sum game.

Again, there are multiple nations that export food. Also, we've had a lot of different presidents of the US before the EU was established, and AFAIK Trump has not tried to turn any trade partner into a vassal state. Did I miss that in the news?