The great 2020 election thread....

[BridgeConsoleMasher]

LittleRaven, why did you have to do this? I am so not ready to deal with the reality of the upcoming election, and it starts earlier every year. It's worse than the mid-October Christmas sales.

I'm playing the game just like you are. Ain't none of us get to make the rules.

But yes, it does get worse every time.

For the life of me I can't imagine why I used to think it was a good idea approaching Facebook comments.

[Fuzzy Necromancer]

Then I suggest you start taking Ginkoba supplements and doing crosswords.

Is this a new meme or something?

I was insinuating that, if you can't recall using hyperbolic language, then something must be seriously wrong with your memory. Ginkoba is supposed to help prevent memory loss and doing crossword puzzles is recommended as a neurological exercise to avert Alzheimers.

[Karha of Honor]

Then I suggest you start taking Ginkoba supplements and doing crosswords.

Is this a new meme or something?

I was insinuating that, if you can't recall using hyperbolic language, then something must be seriously wrong with your memory. Ginkoba is supposed to help prevent memory loss and doing crossword puzzles is recommended as a neurological exercise to avert Alzheimers.

As a joke maybe, i don't really recall doing it much here.

[PerrySimm]

The August 2019 leaderboard for the Democratic presidential primary, according to fivethirtyeight...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/

National
Biden
Sanders
Warren
Harris
Buttigieg


Iowa
Biden
Warren
Sanders
Buttigieg
Harris


New Hampshire
Biden
Sanders
Warren
Harris
Buttigieg


Party Endorsements, weighted score
Biden
Harris
Booker
Warren
Klobuchar

[CmdrKing]

I feel like we're in a holding pattern until we get the finalized lists for the next Debate really. 538 did a short piece on this ( https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-will-make-the-third-democratic-debate-and-who-could-miss-it/ ) so I'll be pulling names from there.

Definitely in: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris, Booker, Buttigieg, O'Rourke, Klobucher, and Yang.

Probable: Gabbard, Castro

Now of those, there's not really a visible path forward for O'Rourke, Klobucher, Yang, Gabbard or Castro, and indeed it's kinda silly that O'Rourke or Yang are sticking around: O'Rourke is an actual contender against the other Senate seat in Texas up in 2020, and Yang's not even a government guy so he's not getting anything by staying in but not doing well. Gabbard and Klobucher don't risk much by staying in, albeit they also have little to gain.
Castro is probably auditioning for a VP slot at this point. More power to him frankly.

So let's talk about the five folk who could be a contender depending on how things shake out. By which I mean AN ORDERED LIST!

1. Warren: Pretty much the only actually exceptional candidate. On top of being a massive nerd and having a Plan For That, frankly she's the only candidate that's actively trying to talk to the entire Democrat Tent. Her primary focus is not merely economic inequity, but the very specific ways they impact the bottom line AND the reasons behind them AND she takes particular care to specify that targetted programs for the most disenfranchised will be required.

2. Booker: Obama 2 Electric Boogaloo, now with legal weed and other criminal justice reforms. Out of sheer exhaustion I can think of worse ways to spend the next 4 or so years.

3. Buttigieg?: left to his own devices Buttigieg is eager to insert foot in mouth, but he's also a deft enough politician to notice when he gets backlash and coach himself on doing better. That's basically a Clinton-type trait which... I dunno anymore between that and Sanders, hence the question mark.

4. Sanders?: Sander's hyperfocus on economic inequity has a lot of value, but fuck if he's not a 60's socialist who doesn't *get* the ways capitalism has changed in the past 30 years and how to adapt to new ways to oppose it.

5. Harris: Harris remains exactly as much of a cop as she was when she put her hat in the ring, and not being willing to back down from that or alter her rhetoric or policy in response to the pushback she gets is troubling to say the least.

6. Biden: god get into the sea old man. No good policies, worthless as a statesman or symbolic leader of the US, it's a condemnation of us as a country that he's nominally still in the lead.

[TGLS]

Now of those, there's not really a visible path forward for O'Rourke, Klobucher, Yang, Gabbard or Castro, and indeed it's kinda silly that O'Rourke or Yang are sticking around: O'Rourke is an actual contender against the other Senate seat in Texas up in 2020, and Yang's not even a government guy so he's not getting anything by staying in but not doing well. Gabbard and Klobucher don't risk much by staying in, albeit they also have little to gain.
Castro is probably auditioning for a VP slot at this point. More power to him frankly.

Just my thoughts, but I'm 90% sure that the majority of the people on that list are trying to get in the limelight for 2024. Conventional wisdom suggests Trump will win in 2020 (unless there's a recession), so building a springboard for the more winnable 2024 is a good political plan.

[CmdrKing]

On the other hand, applying conventional wisdom to Trump has been the source of every humiliating error in political polling in the past three years.

Anyways it's a fool's argument to start with. Trying and failing to win nomination weakens you as a future candidate if you get as far primaries, so if Dems were treating this as a lost cause year and not an open race we'd see far more people running for much safer senate and house seats. That we see so many, most of whom are the best and brightest of the party, is a strong indicator this is not the dominant mentality at play. I'd believe it from a non-politician like Yang, but from O'rourke or Gabbard it's not a terribly savvy move.

[Robovski]

Biden is the literal turd in this party's punchbowl and will ruin the Dems chances to mount an effective campaign if he's the candidate. Dems need to see that clown off before the primaries.

[Admiral X]

And yet Biden is probably the best chance they have of actually winning.

[ProfessorDetective]

Well, we're doomed... Again...