Korean Crisis, and the risk of nuclear war.

[The Romulan Republic]

Korean War II is a war that needs to happen sooner rather than later. The geopolitics of having nukes changes things dramatically.
It is very likely that when NK finally develops miniaturization and sticks a nuke on a missile and then in a sub they will decide they are now untouchable and will decide to finally reunify the peninsula under Juche. At that time we will be faced with a choice. Allow the PRK take over the RoK or intervene and risk having a major coastal city be blown up.

I don't know weather its necessary (I hope not), but if it must be done, then:

a) Either China's position needs to fundamentally change, or NK has to be allowed to fire first. Otherwise, we are most likely talking war with China, and then its a lot more than one or two or a few cities getting nuked.

b) I'd rather any government but our current one be the one to do it. Partisanship aside, can we at least agree that our current Administration (and much of Congress) are fundamentally incompetent and dysfunctional?

For fuck's sake, we'll be lucky to avoid a government shutdown in the next few months from what I hear.

But really, its a shit situation all around, with no easy solution.

[Antiboyscout]

First, stop using 'we' when referring to US lawmaking and military. You have already admitted to being a Canadian.

China doesn't want a nuclear NK any more than anyone else in the region. China wants hegemonic control of east Asia and a nation on their boarder capable of nuking the capital does not play into that plan. But yes we should wait for NK to make the first move.

As for the dysfunctional government, whether Trump is making the right call can only be judged by future outcomes and cannot be judged by them today. I will say that the strategy Trump is taking is at least different that what has been done for the last 30 years. How many times do we have to bribe and capitulate to NK in an attempt to get them to stop making nuclear weapons before we learn it doesn't appear to be working.
Also, Trump may be commander and chief but he doesn't give direct command. He would barely make highly general outlines or goals. Congress is also basically not needed for a war. They only need to say Yes or No, and that is only if NK attacks US soil. If NK attacks SK we are bound by international treaties to aid our ally and because treaties in the US must be approved by congress war would be automatically declared.

My only fear is that American troops will be deployed on the ground. NK has been brainwashing the populous for a long time that US soldiers will kill the men, rape the women, and eat their children alive, so the north koreans that don't commit suicide will take to the hills and we will see guerrilla fighting that will make Vietnam look like a cake walk. They may not want to, but the south koreans will need to take up the land war. If they do and we are lucky they may look to their cousins and lay down and wait for it to be over. Thankfully, unlike our adventures is the middle east the Republic of Korea can take over administration of the entire peninsula at conclusion of a war, meaning no nation building is required.

[The Romulan Republic]

First, stop using 'we' when referring to US lawmaking and military. You have already admitted to being a Canadian.

Duel citizenship.

I'll let this go this once as an honest, if thoughtless, mistake, but only this once.

China doesn't want a nuclear NK any more than anyone else in the region. China wants hegemonic control of east Asia and a nation on their boarder capable of nuking the capital does not play into that plan. But yes we should wait for NK to make the first move.

I think we're largely in agreement on this point, but I stand by my position that making threats you don't wish to follow through on is stupid, and can lead to very bad places.

And, well... there's a pattern with Trump. Again and again, he threatens something horrible, people say "Oh, it can't possibly that bad." And then it turns out, yeah, it is.

As for the dysfunctional government, whether Trump is making the right call can only be judged by future outcomes and cannot be judged by them today.

Normally, I'd agree, but some things are so obviously stupid that you don't need the benefit of hindsight.

I will say that the strategy Trump is taking is at least different that what has been done for the last 30 years. How many times do we have to bribe and capitulate to NK in an attempt to get them to stop making nuclear weapons before we learn it doesn't appear to be working.

Maybe no one tried it before because they didn't want to risk blundering into World War III via pissing contest?

Also, Trump may be commander and chief but he doesn't give direct command. He would barely make highly general outlines or goals. Congress is also basically not needed for a war. They only need to say Yes or No, and that is only if NK attacks US soil. If NK attacks SK we are bound by international treaties to aid our ally and because treaties in the US must be approved by congress war would be automatically declared.

I can't speak to the accuracy of your claims regarding treaty obligations, but its my understanding that the President absolutely can personally order a military strike, including a nuclear launch, on his own authority. Which is rather terrifying, really.

I really wish the US was a country with a no nuclear first strike policy.

My only fear is that American troops will be deployed on the ground. NK has been brainwashing the populous for a long time that US soldiers will kill the men, rape the women, and eat their children alive, so the north koreans that don't commit suicide will take to the hills and we will see guerrilla fighting that will make Vietnam look like a cake walk. They may not want to, but the south koreans will need to take up the land war. If they do and we are lucky they may look to their cousins and lay down and wait for it to be over. Thankfully, unlike our adventures is the middle east the Republic of Korea can take over administration of the entire peninsula at conclusion of a war, meaning no nation building is required.

So just shove all the burden onto our allies, as much as possible? I'm sure SK will appreciate that.

And yes, we'd absolutely be deploying ground troops, unless the war ended in nuclear genocide. Probably on a scale necessitating a draft, as I noted in my OP.

[TGLS]

Duel citizenship.

Be careful, or the ghost of Aaron Burr might shoot you!

[Robovski]

South Korea is the ally on the scene. If war were to be declared they are under the gun of the conventional forces of the North, so letting them take the lead in this is not only worthwhile, but just being a good ally. Japan is right there across the sea too, so keeping them in the main decision process is important too. The Chinese and Russians share a border, their opinions are important too.
But if North Korea were to attack the US or our allies nothing needs to be done to go hot; we're still technically at war with North Korea, no peace was ever ratified, just a cease fire that has lasted longer than I've been alive. The North Koreans may have a nuke or two, they have had some subterranean tests that show at least a partially successful detonation. They have tested missiles that are a threat to some US overseas territories (such a Guam) but are more a threat to Japan, South Korea and many other closer to North Korea countries than the US. Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il still run the DPRK from beyond the grave and Kim Jon-un is having a harder time keeping in control so he goes to the old stand-by, making hostile noises at the US; it worked for dad so why not Pak? But Bill Clinton and Madeline Albright aren't on the other end this time.

[Darth Wedgius]

I've heard that Kim has decided not to attack Guam. South Korea has reportedly expressed a vast shrug of relief.

Me, I have the solution that does not involve bloodshed. North Korea, according to some, has a government that acts as it does because of a need for security. There's another area that is quite secure but has a people both desiring independence and not desiring internal division.

We need to move all the people from Quebec into North Korea and vice-versa.

The Quebecois will get independence from Canada. Other side of the world kind of independence. The kind of independence you can't get better than without really good rockets.

The North Koreans will be between the U.S. and Canada. How much more secure can you get?

China gets a neighbor that is a lot less trouble than the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. I mean, technically there'd be a western power there, but I can't imagine Quebec is going to invade anywhere.

If anyone hears that the Nobel Peace Prize Committee is trying to find me, just let me know. I'll be busy working on my plan for the Middle East.

[LittleRaven]

South Korea claims it has veto authority on any use of force, and it intends to use it.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in said that any military action against Kim Jong Un’s regime requires his nation’s approval, and vowed to prevent war at all costs.

“There will be no war repeated on the Korean Peninsula,” Moon said in a speech on Tuesday marking the anniversary of the end of Japanese occupation in the 1940s. Military action against North Korea should be decided by “ourselves and not by anyone else,” he said.

This was inevitable once North Korea developed missiles capable of hitting the US mainland. At this point, the interests of the United States and South Korea are probably going to drift farther apart, unless the US decides to simply accept the risk that NK may decide to make good on one of its many threats to bath us in nuclear fire. Look for China to exploit this growing rift over the next decade, making subtle guarantees of safety to SK in exchange for slowly limiting the military role of the US within their country. Between this and the collapse of the TPP, I suspect American power will steadily wane in the East Pacific.

Probably inevitable, but we'll ultimately be missed.

[The Romulan Republic]

Well, everything seems to have calmed down, for the moment.

Though I expect that other people have smoothed things over behind the scenes, while Trump got distracted with something else.

Man doesn't even have enough follow-through to engineer a war.

[Rasp]

Well, everything seems to have calmed down, for the moment.

Though I expect that other people have smoothed things over behind the scenes, while Trump got distracted with something else.

Man doesn't even have enough follow-through to engineer a war.

Reports I've seen say Kim looked at the situation and a strong desire not to get his own ass blown up ultimately won out. Like I said it was a bunch of hot air and posturing.

[Fuzzy Necromancer]

Say what you want, but I'm finally able to unclench every muscle in my body just slightly. I still plan to stock up on distilled water and cheap whiskey.

These days, you need follow-through to PLAN a war, to WIN a war, but starting a war? That's as easy as the push of a button.