The great 2020 election thread....

[Captain Crimson]

Here is one thing that concerns me, since... does anyone really expect Mr. 45 to die at this point? And now he's going around preaching that he's cured, and reverting to downplay rhetoric, as we all knew he would. Two concerns here, since he's become the living avatar to his own message, his own politically motivated talking points.

1) In downplaying COVID, using himself as an example, people might take a "follow the leader" approach, that results in more deaths.

2) And as the avatar to his own message, that has certain benefits. Earlier this month, I'd felt the pendulum had swing to Mr. Biden and the DNC. I now think it might shift the other way. Mr. 45 coming down with COVID could be seen as a validation to Mr. Biden's views on COVID... but then he also has no concrete planets to deal with our major issues, so that Mr. 45 could also be a validation to those views. "The President had it and survived? Must not be that serious."

Really, what do you think? I personally don't care who wins in November, but the downplay rhetoric is a concern to me if the sheep in our country flock to him and cite him as the living proof COVID isn't that serious...

Trump will win.

I admit, as my older posts show, I had felt early in the month that the pendulum had swung in the direction of Mr. Biden and the DNC. I now think it's swung back into Mr. 45's side, sadly...

[TGLS]

Here is one thing that concerns me, since... does anyone really expect Mr. 45 to die at this point? And now he's going around preaching that he's cured, and reverting to downplay rhetoric, as we all knew he would. Two concerns here, since he's become the living avatar to his own message, his own politically motivated talking points.

1) In downplaying COVID, using himself as an example, people might take a "follow the leader" approach, that results in more deaths.

2) And as the avatar to his own message, that has certain benefits. Earlier this month, I'd felt the pendulum had swing to Mr. Biden and the DNC. I now think it might shift the other way. Mr. 45 coming down with COVID could be seen as a validation to Mr. Biden's views on COVID... but then he also has no concrete planets to deal with our major issues, so that Mr. 45 could also be a validation to those views. "The President had it and survived? Must not be that serious."

Really, what do you think? I personally don't care who wins in November, but the downplay rhetoric is a concern to me if the sheep in our country flock to him and cite him as the living proof COVID isn't that serious...

Trump will win.

Just dusting off my response from last week:

I smell wishful thinking more than anything else. He isn't low enough in the polls to be fucked.

I dunno. Four years ago (Oct 12th 2016), 538's poll average put Trump 6.3pp behind Clinton. Gary Johnson was pegged at 6.8%. The average right before the election put Trump 3.9pp behind Clinton, and Johnson at 4.8%. In the end Trump was about 2.1pp behind Clinton. Johnson won 3.2% of the PV.

Right now, Trump is 10.4pp behind Biden. Jo Jorgenson isn't worth being mentioned. Apparently pollsters have taken steps to avoid overpolling white college graduates.

I'm no expert statistician. I don't know which states have changed or what. What I'm sure of is there is a number by which the Democrats can win the popular vote which makes the Republican's regional advantage meaningless. If I had to guess, it's about 5pp. Could there be an Late October/November surprise? Maybe. Could there be a 2pp bias? Maybe, but apparently it was fixed. Could people abandon a third party in droves? Not this year.

2016 was a closer election with more things that could break in a way that could help Trump. Like it or not, Trump is now saddled with his record. Because of recency, people are going to think about 2020 first. I feel this election is going to come down to whether the voters blame Trump or blame bad luck.

[Captain Crimson]

Here is one thing that concerns me, since... does anyone really expect Mr. 45 to die at this point? And now he's going around preaching that he's cured, and reverting to downplay rhetoric, as we all knew he would. Two concerns here, since he's become the living avatar to his own message, his own politically motivated talking points.

1) In downplaying COVID, using himself as an example, people might take a "follow the leader" approach, that results in more deaths.

2) And as the avatar to his own message, that has certain benefits. Earlier this month, I'd felt the pendulum had swing to Mr. Biden and the DNC. I now think it might shift the other way. Mr. 45 coming down with COVID could be seen as a validation to Mr. Biden's views on COVID... but then he also has no concrete planets to deal with our major issues, so that Mr. 45 could also be a validation to those views. "The President had it and survived? Must not be that serious."

Really, what do you think? I personally don't care who wins in November, but the downplay rhetoric is a concern to me if the sheep in our country flock to him and cite him as the living proof COVID isn't that serious...

Trump will win.

Just dusting off my response from last week:

I smell wishful thinking more than anything else. He isn't low enough in the polls to be fucked.

I dunno. Four years ago (Oct 12th 2016), 538's poll average put Trump 6.3pp behind Clinton. Gary Johnson was pegged at 6.8%. The average right before the election put Trump 3.9pp behind Clinton, and Johnson at 4.8%. In the end Trump was about 2.1pp behind Clinton. Johnson won 3.2% of the PV.

Right now, Trump is 10.4pp behind Biden. Jo Jorgenson isn't worth being mentioned. Apparently pollsters have taken steps to avoid overpolling white college graduates.

I'm no expert statistician. I don't know which states have changed or what. What I'm sure of is there is a number by which the Democrats can win the popular vote which makes the Republican's regional advantage meaningless. If I had to guess, it's about 5pp. Could there be an Late October/November surprise? Maybe. Could there be a 2pp bias? Maybe, but apparently it was fixed. Could people abandon a third party in droves? Not this year.

2016 was a closer election with more things that could break in a way that could help Trump. Like it or not, Trump is now saddled with his record. Because of recency, people are going to think about 2020 first. I feel this election is going to come down to whether the voters blame Trump or blame bad luck.

It is true that the GOP has nothing to beat nonstop on Mr. Biden about, mainly due to media favoritism, but then by the same token, I hear Mr. Biden's ground game is just not that good. He wants to try to recreate the Obama coalition with clever online campaign tactics, and the sad reality is that he is too old to understand the tech, and going online away from the kid gloves of the media and the GOP paints a different story. You can't hide from the internet, and most of the planet uses it at this point.

I suspect the polls may be even more skewed this year, because remember the innate fallibility of modern polling which cannot be objectively measured, and also that Mr. Dubya had likewise horrible approval ratings and he still had been reelected, even though we were at war and had blown the New Economy. Though if he had mishandled Hurricane Katrina, would that still stand up? Who knows. Next month will reveal the proof in the pudding.

[Fuzzy Necromancer]

Here is one thing that concerns me, since... does anyone really expect Mr. 45 to die at this point? And now he's going around preaching that he's cured, and reverting to downplay rhetoric, as we all knew he would. Two concerns here, since he's become the living avatar to his own message, his own politically motivated talking points.

1) In downplaying COVID, using himself as an example, people might take a "follow the leader" approach, that results in more deaths.

2) And as the avatar to his own message, that has certain benefits. Earlier this month, I'd felt the pendulum had swing to Mr. Biden and the DNC. I now think it might shift the other way. Mr. 45 coming down with COVID could be seen as a validation to Mr. Biden's views on COVID... but then he also has no concrete planets to deal with our major issues, so that Mr. 45 could also be a validation to those views. "The President had it and survived? Must not be that serious."

Really, what do you think? I personally don't care who wins in November, but the downplay rhetoric is a concern to me if the sheep in our country flock to him and cite him as the living proof COVID isn't that serious...

Trump will win.

I admit, as my older posts show, I had felt early in the month that the pendulum had swung in the direction of Mr. Biden and the DNC. I now think it's swung back into Mr. 45's side, sadly...

Dude, if you take away NOTHING else from this election cycle, please realize it has proven beyond a shadow of a McYiffing doubt that the "pendulum theory" of electoral politics is as sound as Hollow Earth geology.

[Captain Crimson]

Well, look at it this way, and this is one of the few areas I can respect Mr. 45 on, in that he has kept most of his campaign promises. They were just very BAD promises. But at least it gives him consistency, especially with his "no-apology" drive which gives off the illusion of success. I find it concerning, but at the same time, it's likely why he could win again. The riots that began, apparently, as peaceful protests across the nation could be leading into a further silencing effect for Trump voters. Think about it. It is why I think many here want you guys to take them a bit more seriously. Because we've had this violence nonstop since 2017, and much as I hate to admit it, Mr. 45 hasn't caused it, those upset by the outcome and wanting change have. Remember, he's the symptom, not the cause. Stoking the flames doesn't cause the fire.

Mr. Biden is using COVID as a way to hold small rallies and... I don't think merely being anti-Trump will cut it. Too many democrats dislike what the status quo is now, and it comes off as sneaky. For better or worse, what you see is what you get with Mr. 45, and very little know who Mr. Biden is. That's a massive risk I think may spell another "lonely landslide" phenomenon, like 1972, and 1984. 1984 especially given your contempt for Mr. Reagan, and Mr. 45 has likewise mishandled a viral outbreak. I dunno... to quote from my biggest passion, "I have a bad feeling about this..."

[Fuzzy Necromancer]

You blame the Democrats for Republican voter fraud in CA. I don't have to listen to anything you say, given you apparently jam a cube of meth up your ass and take poppers through your ears before hitting the Submit button on this website.

[clearspira]

A lot of people won't like me saying this, but I thought Trump did very well in the debate. He seemed more presidential than I have seen him.

[Rocketboy1313]

A lot of people won't like me saying this, but I thought Trump did very well in the debate. He seemed more presidential than I have seen him.

It is not that we dislike you saying it (we do, but that is a separate issue), it is that we are baffled that you are saying that.

I have no idea how you could look at that rambling conspiracy theory spouting loon and think, "presidential".

[Fuzzy Necromancer]

A lot of people won't like me saying this, but I thought Trump did very well in the debate. He seemed more presidential than I have seen him.

He managed to not be as interrupty. Much like a six-year-old who managed to not shit his pants, 45 is praised for barely clearing the lowest bar of behavior and considered "presidential" when he manages to tone down his "screaming man in crunchy pants who always assails you at the bus stop" persona.

[Makeshift Python]

A lot of people won't like me saying this, but I thought Trump did very well in the debate. He seemed more presidential than I have seen him.

Are you fucking kidding me? 90% of the debate was him whining about how the media was unfair to him and how he's the worst treated president in the history of the united states.

That's not acting presidential, that's crying like a little bitch.