The great 2020 election thread....

[CmdrKing]

“Thousands if not millions deserve to suffer and die because Clinton lost in 2016”

But you’re the moderate.

[Yukaphile]

Blacks got their great champion legitimately elected. Why should women be cheated out of that chance because sexism is worse than racism? And no, you can't save everyone. You could drive yourself mad in trying to do so. And this is not fiction where we have power, whether that's superpowers or influence. We're on our own. Cling to whatever selfish little issue humans flock to, and dig in deep and defend it.

[Darth Wedgius]

Maybe AOC is secretly working for Trump, bravely sacrificing her public image and historical reputation for a president she believes in.

[LittleRaven]

Blacks got their great champion legitimately elected. Why should women be cheated out of that chance because sexism is worse than racism?

It's....it's probably better than you stop thinking of politics as an arena where great champions do battle, and start thinking of it more like a sausage factory. A whole lot of disgusting stuff goes in, a whole lot of disgusting stuff happens inside, and if you're lucky, something that is mostly edible comes out.

[CmdrKing]

Blacks got their great champion legitimately elected. Why should women be cheated out of that chance because sexism is worse than racism? And no, you can't save everyone. You could drive yourself mad in trying to do so. And this is not fiction where we have power, whether that's superpowers or influence. We're on our own. Cling to whatever selfish little issue humans flock to, and dig in deep and defend it.

And if my #1 issue is that I'm categorically done watching the human race destroy itself over piddling hardware flaws in the brain rather than using the entire rest of it to analyze the problem and choose to solve it?

Anyway, now that I have a proper keyboard, let's talk productive, practical outcomes about this topic.

Trump going out of his way to implicate Pence in this matter is a self-preserving move. It means that even if he, personally, has become sufficiently toxic that his remaining in office becomes evidence that the GOP is incapable of governance, meaning they come out ahead by cutting him lose and actually voting to remove once articles of impeachment were voted on? Doing so risks also removing Pence, meaning that they'd have to give up power *now* to preserve their power in the *future*, a calculus dedicated capitalist are not often capable of.

So let's say there's a 2% chance that public sentiment against Trump is *SO* overwhelming that they get the hint and remove him. Once the house formally begins to draw up articles (as in, it leaves committe, which hasn't happened yet), we can expect it to take 2-3 months to work through the House. For the sake of argument, we could start that process in late october, and around the first of the year impeachment would be sent to the Senate.

The actual trial in the senate would have taken around 6 months during the Clinton era, and we can probably surmise the McConnel senate would take a bit longer. At this point, we're looking at things concluding around July or August. Supposing that Pence resigned around this point for the sake of argument, rather than resigning ahead of time and Trump appointing a new VP ala Nixon, Nancy Pelosi would be sworn into office a mere 3 months before the 2020 election, and serve a further 2 months until the start of the new term.

Supposing she opted not to run in 2020 and let the winning candidate from the ongoing primary head up the Democratic ticket in november, the 46th president would serve 5 months, give or take.
Current indicators suggest a highly likely outcome of the primary, independent of other factors, is Elizabeth Warren winning.
Further, we can safely assume that, with the sheer devastation the GOP is enduring during all this, whoever scrapes together a presidential ticket to replace Trump in 2020 loses as decisively as a candidate can in 2020.

So in the universe where impeachment leads to removal, there's a very good chance that placeholder president Nancy Pelosi is replaced in less than half a year by Actual First Woman President Elizabeth Warren.

Is that really some unforgivable sin for which the world deserves to burn in the flames of hell's judgement? Is a five month term giving way to a no-bullshit outright winner somehow sneaking in through the window instead of shattering the glass ceiling as you usually put it?

[BridgeConsoleMasher]

I don't think Yuka understands that politics is supposed to run in spite of symbolism and not be completely f'kin motivated by it.

[Jonathan101]

I think Yuka understands fine and just has a strong need to vent.

[CmdrKing]

Oh, I wouldn't say that. Symbolism and milestones are important things, both as a form of communication about our goals, aspirations, and how we want to view ourselves, and as a mental shorthand to render complex systems into a form we can grapple with easily rather than having to tackles them in their entirety any time we engage at all.

But they are a specific portion of the whole, that serve specific functions, and letting them be the entirety of your political outlook is going to lead to disengagement.

[BridgeConsoleMasher]

potato potato

[Yukaphile]

Politics is fleeting, ever changing. Symbolism, the right kind, lasts forever. And that gender barrier remains as elusive as ever because we're just unused to a woman with that much power. And the way things are shaping up, no woman is ever going to be legitimately elected by the people and not have it handed to them in my lifetime. That's both sexism and privilege, strangely enough.