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CharlesPhipps wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 5:08 pm
Henry Kissinger says that due to Russia being such an important part of the global order, the West should force Ukraine to give up territory and bring about a peace settlement. Which, to me, is the clearest sign we should continue on supporting Ukraine since his ability to read the room in foreign affairs is amazingly terrible.
It also shows that apparently every single ex-Cold Warrior longs for the return of the Soviet Union.
This war will not end with any situation in which Putin has obviously lost. By which I mean, a Russian retreat with the Ukrainian anthem playing to their backs. That would be a dog whistle to everyone in Russia who wants his job that this old man has lost his teeth.
Lets be clear here: the only way this is going to end is if Ukraine gives Russia the Donbas and recognises Crimea. I don't like it, you don't like it, the Ukrainians don't like it. Someone is going to end up with a Pyrrhic victory its just a question of whom.
clearspira wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 5:37 pm
This war will not end with any situation in which Putin has obviously lost. By which I mean, a Russian retreat with the Ukrainian anthem playing to their backs. That would be a dog whistle to everyone in Russia who wants his job that this old man has lost his teeth.
Lets be clear here: the only way this is going to end is if Ukraine gives Russia the Donbas and recognises Crimea. I don't like it, you don't like it, the Ukrainians don't like it. Someone is going to end up with a Pyrrhic victory its just a question of whom.
The thing is that's not going to happen because they started with that offer and Putin made it clear that they had no interest in anything less than a full annexation/"Denazification." At this point, there's no reason for the Ukraine to not keep hammering Russia until their military forces collapse.
The UK estimates there's already 15K dead on Russia's side in three months and may be as high as 30K. Making it impossible for Russia to annex their territory can be stretched out indefinitely and possibly should as he's already shown plans to deport native Ukrainians and replace them with Russian settlers.
I can see why Kissinger and his lot are spinning out. Decades of planning for the new Cold War-style clash of Great Powers between the US Russia and China that was building up, and then Russia ruins everything by taking themselves out of the game with their first move.
...for space is wide, and good friends are too few.
clearspira wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 5:37 pm
This war will not end with any situation in which Putin has obviously lost. By which I mean, a Russian retreat with the Ukrainian anthem playing to their backs. That would be a dog whistle to everyone in Russia who wants his job that this old man has lost his teeth.
Lets be clear here: the only way this is going to end is if Ukraine gives Russia the Donbas and recognises Crimea. I don't like it, you don't like it, the Ukrainians don't like it. Someone is going to end up with a Pyrrhic victory its just a question of whom.
The thing is that's not going to happen because they started with that offer and Putin made it clear that they had no interest in anything less than a full annexation/"Denazification." At this point, there's no reason for the Ukraine to not keep hammering Russia until their military forces collapse.
The UK estimates there's already 15K dead on Russia's side in three months and may be as high as 30K. Making it impossible for Russia to annex their territory can be stretched out indefinitely and possibly should as he's already shown plans to deport native Ukrainians and replace them with Russian settlers.
Which russian settlers? Russia is a nation in demographic decline. They're basically on less than one child per parent since the 70s. This war is literally their last war, as they just do not have the manpower to wage another in about 10 years times and what's even more damning, they lack any industrial and scientific Base, as the last time their school system produced anything of value in a larger scale was in the 80s. They have a critical lack of engineers and scientists in every field and the few which have a good education (particularly in the field of information technologies) have been fleeing the country for the most part and this only got worse with this war. They lost more than 300,000 people through emigration in the first four months of this year and this isn't the old ones leaving, it's the young ones who feel they have a perspective outside of Russia. Russia is so fundamentally done by this point in time... They need the ukrainian population to even do anything with the soil they try to conquer...
"If you get shot up by an A6M Reisen and your plane splits into pieces - does that mean it's divided by Zero?
- xoxSAUERKRAUTxox
Madner Kami wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 8:46 pm
They need the ukrainian population to even do anything with the soil they try to conquer...
Nothing about this war is a smart move. They actually dismantled the steel plant in Azovstal with plans to make it a tourist destination.
Same with the Donbas. The former corrupt, pro-russian goverment pumped most of the state's money into the Donbas (one of the many reasons for the Euromaidan happening) and the Donbas was, by far, the most well developed industrial region in Ukraine at all. Those "People's Republics" today? Depopulated, deindustrialized, completely dependant on transfer-money from Moscow.
"If you get shot up by an A6M Reisen and your plane splits into pieces - does that mean it's divided by Zero?
- xoxSAUERKRAUTxox
clearspira wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 5:37 pm
This war will not end with any situation in which Putin has obviously lost. By which I mean, a Russian retreat with the Ukrainian anthem playing to their backs. That would be a dog whistle to everyone in Russia who wants his job that this old man has lost his teeth.
Lets be clear here: the only way this is going to end is if Ukraine gives Russia the Donbas and recognises Crimea. I don't like it, you don't like it, the Ukrainians don't like it. Someone is going to end up with a Pyrrhic victory its just a question of whom.
The thing is that's not going to happen because they started with that offer and Putin made it clear that they had no interest in anything less than a full annexation/"Denazification." At this point, there's no reason for the Ukraine to not keep hammering Russia until their military forces collapse.
The UK estimates there's already 15K dead on Russia's side in three months and may be as high as 30K. Making it impossible for Russia to annex their territory can be stretched out indefinitely and possibly should as he's already shown plans to deport native Ukrainians and replace them with Russian settlers.
Which russian settlers? Russia is a nation in demographic decline. They're basically on less than one child per parent since the 70s. This war is literally their last war, as they just do not have the manpower to wage another in about 10 years times and what's even more damning, they lack any industrial and scientific Base, as the last time their school system produced anything of value in a larger scale was in the 80s. They have a critical lack of engineers and scientists in every field and the few which have a good education (particularly in the field of information technologies) have been fleeing the country for the most part and this only got worse with this war. They lost more than 300,000 people through emigration in the first four months of this year and this isn't the old ones leaving, it's the young ones who feel they have a perspective outside of Russia. Russia is so fundamentally done by this point in time... They need the ukrainian population to even do anything with the soil they try to conquer...
If they keep up with what they are doing now, I agree. Maybe after Putin dies, there might be a total reform but I doubt it.
Historically Russians just suck at running their own government. So I wouldn't hold my breath.
Makes me think of that conversation between Sisko and Nog in DS9's "A Call to Arms"
SISKO: A lot of rumours float around at a time like this, Cadet. Just don't forget the one hundred ninetieth Rule of Acquisition. NOG: Hear all, trust nothing. Good advice, sir.
It seems likely that a lot of his critics/enemies would spread stories like this for their own purposes, like Ukrainians trying to raise support for their country or anti-war Russians trying to discourage their own people from fighting. Then again, Putin is not a young man. Born in 1952 makes him one of the older 'baby boomers.' Physical fitness and modern medicine certainly help but he is as mortal as anyone else.
If I had to guess; I would say most of the stories are either false, or gross exaggerations. The strain of running a country during war time, coupled with the fact that he's 70 years old at this point, is taking its toll and he's getting a lot more medical attention then he had before. If does die in office it's probably going to be more from old age and stress than cancer, like FDR.
