The Keys to the White House

[Winter]

I will be clear on one thing, this is the only post I plan to put on this part of the forum. I prefer to talk about Science Fiction and Fantasy over anything in regards to Politics. But this has been a rather interesting week so I'm going to throw my hat in on this one.

When it comes Presidential Elections there is only one prediction system I trust to give me an objective look at the situation, one that has correctly guessed almost every winner of every election since 1984. This being the Keys to the White House which was created by Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok.

The basics is there are a certain number of keys that an Incumbent party needs in order to win the election. If the Incumbent party gets 5 False keys or less then 5 their predicted to win the election, if they get 6 False Keys or more False Keys then they are predicted to loose the election.

Lichtman even applied the Keys to past Presidential Elections starting with Abraham Lincoln and going to Ronald Reagan for the 1980 Presidential Election and it was only wrong twice. This is the system I trust the most and according to it, at the time of this writing the Keys read like this.

Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

False

No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

True

Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

False

No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

Leans True

Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

True

Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

True

Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

True

No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

Leans True

No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

True

No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

Leans False


Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

Unclear

Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

False

Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

True

False Keys currently Number at 3 with with 1 Key Leaning False. The 11th Key is currently unclear thanks to the Prisoner Exchange with Russia as it's not certain if this will truly be seen as Major success. If it does go True then the Incumbent party will have 4 False Keys but if it go False the Incumbent party will have 5 Keys.

If either or both Keys 4 and 8 turn False they Keys will go up to 6 or 7.

At this time the Keys to the White House Leans Towards Kamala Harris Winning the Election.

[Nealithi]

Uhm did you decide that Trump is not charismatic? Because his supporters seem to think he is quite clear and rallying.

[BridgeConsoleMasher]

Uhm did you decide that Trump is not charismatic? Because his supporters seem to think he is quite clear and rallying.

It arguably is the entire legs of his platform. As long as he has enough wind in his lungs to simply challenge stuff like the Black Journalist press conference questions and standards then people will see him as unwavering.

[CmdrKing]

"Charisma", the way Licthman uses it, is more about being a rising star who's drawing people from across the political spectrum and brining a lot of optimism with them. Think JFK or maybe Obama. You could argue that Trump had something of that in 2016, but if so he's definitely lost it and draws substantial negative turnout now.

[Thebestoftherest]

I have to wonder if he fired or imprisoned anyone in his employ that knew how to win and left with mindless yesmen who only see this as a paycheck and no skills.

[BridgeConsoleMasher]

"Charisma", the way Licthman uses it, is more about being a rising star who's drawing people from across the political spectrum and brining a lot of optimism with them. Think JFK or maybe Obama. You could argue that Trump had something of that in 2016, but if so he's definitely lost it and draws substantial negative turnout now.

Oh certainly. I remember watching him first step up in 2015, and it was not so eventually that his platform was reactionary to the modernizing progressive agenda.

[hammerofglass]

Honestly I've been baffled by Trump's charisma since 2015. Because to see his followers he's got the dominant personality and persuasive ability of a Biblical prophet but then you actually watch the speech yourself and it's a pathetic confused old man yammering racist gibberish and not even making coherent points.

I know the standard explanation is that they ignore his actual words and just accept the permission to be the worst version of themselves that he represents, but I suspect there may some glitch in the Matrix that he's so anti-charismatic a certain percentage of people suffer an integer overflow and wrap around to being impressed instead of repulsed.

[Thebestoftherest]

I think a lot of people just letting their hope grow, that if they can hurt someone innocent they can ignore how their own lives will be worst.

[BridgeConsoleMasher]

I know the standard explanation is that they ignore his actual words and just accept the permission to be the worst version of themselves that he represents, but I suspect there may some glitch in the Matrix that he's so anti-charismatic a certain percentage of people suffer an integer overflow and wrap around to being impressed instead of repulsed.

One reason the red pill narrative was very popular with a lot of people was because they can't really wrap their head around modern compromise that's expected by progressive leanings and have chosen to not participate in establishment politics, which embodies a consistent landscape analogy.

[Riedquat]

I have to wonder if he fired or imprisoned anyone in his employ that knew how to win and left with mindless yesmen who only see this as a paycheck and no skills.

He's certainly got the type of personality prone to making that sort of mistake.